Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Friday January 4

Welcome into the Friday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have a much better slate on tap than yesterday with 10 games tonight so let’s get moving!

It was a bit of a mixed bag yesterday, as the smaller slates tend to be. We had a couple big hits with DeMar DeRozan and Clint Capela, but totally whiffed on Paul Millsap and Draymond Green. It was a little frustrating but we’re onto a new day and the 10 game slate provides us with a lot more to choose from and some attractive games. Let’s figure out who should be our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays for Friday!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Terry Rozier, Celtics 

I wasn’t huge on Rozier this past game when Kyrie Irving was out and he played very well, nearing 40 DK points and paying off his salary very easily. It hasn’t raised to the point where you should fade him, though I’m not convinced he has a giant ceiling. He gets a generous matchup since the Mavericks are the ninth worst team against point guards and Dennis Smith owns a negative rating  defensively.

The other component to Rozier is Marcus Morris is questionable. He says he will suit up, but players always think that they will play. If he is out, Rozier will be a borderline lock for me on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m also not buying Gordon Hayward can go 14-18 shooting in this game, meaning Rozier could have an additional chance to have a nice scoring game.

Honorable Mention – Dante Exum, Jazz(if Ricky Rubio is out)

Fade – Russell Westbrook, Thunder 

It’s not often one of the fantasy stalwarts will find his way into my fade list but there is a shift going on in Oklahoma City that we would be wise to adjust to. If you want to play Westbrook, you still have to pay top dollar and that truly isn’t the best path based on the past month of data. Over the past four weeks, Thunder Player A has a 31.5 percent usage and a 1.53 FPPM, which is truly awesome. However, Thunder Player B has a 31.8 percent usage and a 1.47 FPPM in that sam time span.

Players who have been here all year likely already know who I’m talking about and he makes an appearance later, but there’s no reason to pay for the premium. I will spend my money elsewhere than Westbrook tonight, even though he feels like one of the safest bets for 60 points on the board.

Honorable Mention – Damian Lillard, Blazers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks 

I always want a piece of a team facing the Hawks because they are consistently one of the worst teams defensively in basketball. Needless to say, that leads to fantasy goodness for the other side but the point spread has to concern you here. Paying up for the Greek Freak typically isn’t the best idea when he’s a 14 point favorite because you can’t spend that amount of salary on a player that only gets up to the fourth quarter.

So, drop down and play Brogdon who has been out-producing Eric Bledsoe on a fairly regular basis lately. The shooting guard for Milwaukee has held strong at 1.0 FPPM and is under $6,000 on both sites so at his normal 30ish minutes, he should have a safe floor. Given that the Hawks are the worst team in the league against shooting guards just adds to his appeal tonight.

Honorable Mention – Luka Doncic, Mavs(cheapest he’s been in almost three weeks on DK)

Fade – Andrew Wiggins, Wolves

This might look odd on the face of it, since the Wolves seem like they will be heavily shorthanded in this game and Wiggins is coming off a big fantasy game. He dropped 31 real points so one would assume he had to hit around 45 fantasy and maybe approached 50….and you would be very wrong. Wiggins ended on 38 DK points while scoring 31 real points. That’s borderline impossible to do in fantasy, especially when you play 43 minutes but Wiggins found a way to pull it off.

I’m not willing to pay the price tag for a player that absolutely has to drop 30 real points(if not more) to come close to value. I’m happy to let someone else chase that, regardless of who’s in or out for the Wolves.

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jazz

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Paul George, Thunder

It’s my job to include my favorite play on the slate in every article and this is it for me. If you didn’t know in the Westbrook analysis, George is Thunder Player B(I know, it was a big mystery, right?) and he draws a juicy matchup this evening. The best part is he saves you at least $1,400 in salary on either site and Portland has just been mashed by wing players all season. George is loving life in Oklahoma right now and given the rend of the past month and the salaries, PG-13 is the best fantasy option from the Thunder until his price gets out of hand.

For the Blazers part of the equation, they have bled points to the small forward. They’re second worst in both DK points and real points while George is on an absolute tear. The price gap has to be less than $1,000 for me to consider Westbrook over George at this point and he’s one of the top options of any positions tonight.

Honorable Mention – Justice Winslow, Heat

Fade – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks 

This call could blow up in my face in a very tragic fashion because if the Hawks keep this game close, the Greek Freak could go for 80-90 DK points. No team really has a player that can stop Antetokounmpo, but the Hawks interior may as well just be cones on the floor. These all sounds like reason to play him, and I will in GPP just in case Atlanta finds a way.

I don’t expect them too and I can’t pay for the most expensive player on the slate in a game I don’t believe can stay remotely close. I’ll have to settle for watching highlights after the game to see how badly he tortures the Hawks in this spot, because the floor is simply too low.

Honorable Mention – Danilo Gallinari, Clippers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Jaren Jackson, Jr., Grizzlies 

I absolutely love Marc Gasol and if Mike Conley were to be out, he might be up there with George as a play of the slate to me. If you’re looking for lower owned GPP upside, look no further than Jackson. It’s been a roller coaster for the rookie, as is to be expected. This could be a really good spot for him if he can stay out of foul trouble because the Nets drive to the basket the most times out of any team in the NBA.

That’s going to help the block upside of Jackson in this spot and we know that Brooklyn is not a good rebounding team and has all sorts of issues in the paint. Jackson touches the ball in the paint 6.6 times a game and could definitely rack up a double-double tonight. Just don’t rely on him in cash game settings.

Honorable Mention – Lauri Markkanen, Bulls

Fade – Montrezl Harrell, Clippers 

My goodness does this one hurt to write. If you’ve read any of my NBA work so far, you know I have a soft spot for Harrell in a pretty major way. However, I also try to play without too many emotions when setting the lineup and Harrell is juts too expensive, even with a great matchup on tap. Yes, the Suns cannot guard the paint and yes, Harrell has the 13th most paint touches in the NBA(despite fewer minutes than the 12 in front of him), but therein lies the issue.

He needs to score 42-45 fantasy points to hit 6x, which hasn’t been enough so far this year. He needs to come close to 1.80/2.00 FPPM to hit that mark given his current minutes and it just doesn’t seem like the safest bet out there. I love the frontrunner for Sixth Man of the Year, but he’s too expensive for tonight.

Honorable Mention – Aaron Gordon, Magic

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Deandre Ayton, Suns 

While a lot of the attention(deservedly) goes to how bad the Suns are on the inside, the Clippers aren’t much better. They give up only a point and a half less on DK per game, and Ayton hasn’t played under 30 minutes since December 16th. He’s seemingly locked into a huge role and the Clips are giving up the second most paint points in the league. It just so happens that Ayton is fifth in points per game from the paint, so even though he has to deal with Harrell this looks like a spectacular spot.

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The big decision of FD is Ayton or Gasol and right now, I’m leaning Ayton by a hair. I would flip that if Conley was out for Memphis and on DK, I might attempt a George, Ayton and Gasol core. As things stand, Ayton is my favorite center play and he might have the added bonus of coming in at the much lower ownership behind Gasol.

Honorable Mention – Brook Lopez, Bucks if spending down

Fade – Jusuf Nurkic, Blazers 

I may have missed out on the historic 5×5 game that Nurkic put up in his last game, but playing him now doesn’t get me any of those points. Understandably, his price went through the roof coming off the massive game and he would be expensive in a good matchup.

That’s definitely not what he has tonight, since Oklahoma City is excellent against centers. They allow the eighth fewest real points, sixth fewest rebounds and the second fewest DK points to the position. All of these factors add up to me not playing Nurkic tonight, wistfully thinking of how I wish I had played him a few nights ago to reap the benefits of history.

Honorable Mention – Jarrett Allen, ,Nets

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