NFL DFS Sleepers and Standard Deviations – Wild Card Weekend

Let’s go position by position and define the best values and find the hidden NFL DFS Sleepers for this wild card weekend.

Low game totals are the norm here, with only the Houston game being above 43. Most likely a relatively low score will win your tournament, which means finding the TD makers and scorers is imperative.  Let’s look at the variables from a variety of ways to roster the best line-up.

NFL DFS Sleepers – QB’s

Andrew Luck (Indy) and Deshaun Watson (Houston) are the statistical standouts – they are projected for the most points, carry the highest salaries, and the game total is the highest on the board – but are they the best QB’s to roster? Ultra important in 4 game slates is to be unique.  Luck and Watson will be heavily owned, and rostering Watson (especially the Watson-Hopkins stack) will require being different in other spots, a difficult task with fewer viable choices on this short schedule.

Nick Foles is a quality sleeper here.  Both Foles and Zack Ertz have been awful on the road recently, yet they are a quality combination that is just as likely to combine for TD’s as any other.  In addition, Nelson Agholor has been very strong the last 2 games making a Foles-Agholor stack viable and unique.  Most people using Foles will match him with either Zach Ertz or Alshon Jeffery.

Mitchell Trubisky is another sleeper here.  His recent mediocre results combined with the re-emergence of RB Jordan Howard will soften his percentage owned, however he has the skill to post a big fantasy number as he is throwing into an exploitable secondary.

Philip Rivers should have a much tougher time going up against the 2nd ranked Baltimore secondary.  Dak Prescott will throw against the 29th ranked Seattle secondary but has posted bad results in similar situations and will be heavily owned.  Strive to be different in tournaments as that is the only way to place high.

NFL DFS Sleepers – RB’s

Melvin Gordon is clear to play, while back-up Austin Ekeler is still limited in practice.  It’s an easy guess Gordon will get a heavy work load and will be abundantly owned.Ezekiel Elliot has an elite match-up with the weak Seattle run defense and should be the heaviest owned RB on the slate.
We need to pivot from these public favorites in some line-ups using these viable NFL DFS Sleepers:

Chris Carson (Seattle) On fire the last 3 weeks averaging 26.43 DK PPG.  He’s up against a mediocre Cowboy defensive line and is the clear #1 RB in a run happy offense.

Jordan Howard (Bears) has returned to form and is a cheap option to score 1 or 2 TD’s.  Somehow RB #2 Cohen is priced well above Howard so take advantage of this pricing quirk.

Kenneth Dixon (Baltimore) is hampered only by QB Jackson’s ability to score running TD’s.  Last week he carried 12 times averaging almost 10 yards a carry and if the TD’s go his way he could have a monster day.

NFL DFS Sleepers – WR’s

DeAndre Hopkins (Houston) is the top public choice here, especially the Watson-Hopkins stack.  He’s a statistical standout but is going against the 3rd ranked secondary in Indianapolis.  T Y Hilton (Indy) is right behind him with the public although he is officially questionable this week.  Pivoting to some sleepers:

Nelson Agholor (Philadelphia) Checks in as a WR #2 near minimum salary having posted 2 great weeks in a row.  Worth a look as a stack with Foles as his price has not risen even with those solid results.

Allen Robinson (Chicago) Often approaches 100 receiving yards although TD’s have been elusive.  On the week he scored 2 receiving TD’s he posted over 34 DK points, but in any case he gets many targets and opportunities.

Tyler Lockett (Seattle) Has been unbelievably consistent even though Seattle runs the ball most of the time.  Not many people will have the Wilson-Lockett stack.  He has recorded 10 receiving TD’s this year including 1 last week.

NFL DFS Sleepers – TE’s

This is the one position difficult to call for a sleeper.  Zack Ertz and Eric Ebron are the standouts.

Blake Jarwin is the dark horse candidate after posting nearly 40 DK points last week.  Zach Ertz has been cold on the road but the talent is there.

NFL DFS Sleepers – Defense

The Bears and the Ravens rock the DST category.  A sleeper here could be…

Texans
Their ability to create turnovers has them as the 2nd best DK DST point producer behind the Bears.

Seahawks
They rise to the occasion when they have to, and Dallas has been known to choke at home in past playoff games.

Notes of interest:

Weather should not be a factor this weekend.  Saturday games are domed, while Sunday games are clear and cold but not freezing.

Good Luck!