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Dutch Wydo’s Best NFL Bets: Who you should take on Wild Card weekend?

By Josh Hill

Chicago Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) scrambles away from the Philadelphia Eagles defense in the first quarter on Sunday, Nov. 26, 2017 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune/TNS via Getty Images)
Chicago Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky (10) scrambles away from the Philadelphia Eagles defense in the first quarter on Sunday, Nov. 26, 2017 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pa. (John J. Kim/Chicago Tribune/TNS via Getty Images) /
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CARSON, CA – DECEMBER 22: Philip Rivers #17 of the Los Angeles Chargers passes the ball under pressure in the pocket during the second half of a game against the Baltimore Ravens at StubHub Center on December 22, 2018 in Carson, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
CARSON, CA – DECEMBER 22: Philip Rivers #17 of the Los Angeles Chargers passes the ball under pressure in the pocket during the second half of a game against the Baltimore Ravens at StubHub Center on December 22, 2018 in Carson, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have had a phenomenal season with their team sporting a +1.3 yards per pass differential which has been near the top of the NFL all season. The problem the Chargers have in this match up is their excellent pass differential is due primarily to the offensive side of the ball where they average 8.1 net yards per pass vs a schedule of defenses that allow just 6.9. That is more than one full yard per pass gained more than an average defense allows.

Of all the teams Los Angeles could play, the Ravens would be the toughest match up. The Ravens more than match the Chargers strength by allowing only 5.8 yards per pass vs a schedule of defenses that throw for 7.1 on average.  The Chargers won’t be able to turn to the running game for help as the Ravens defense gives up only 3.7 yards per rush against opponents which gain 4.5 on average. For the Chargers to win on the road, they will need to win the turnover battle and convert on short fields. This is possible with Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson’s propensity to fumble. Jackson has 12 fumbles in less than half a season of action, including at least one fumble in eight consecutive games.

The Ravens offense will have their fair share of problems as well. They primarily like to run to the right side. But a now-healthy Joey Bosa awaits them. But I just don’t like the way the Chargers finished the season averaging just 5.2 yards per play the final three games. It won’t get any easier for them having to play in Baltimore. Great pass defense is difficult to overcome especially on the road in a hostile environment. Ravens coach John Harbaugh manages to get the most out of his teams by winning the turnover battle and playing great special teams.

Pick: Ravens -2.5

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