DraftKings NBA Picks January 5: How many of you will fade Harden?

SALT LAKE CITY, UT – OCTOBER 05: Alec Burks #10 of the Utah Jazz looks to pass the ball in the second half of a preseason NBA game against the Adelaide 36ers at Vivint Smart Home Arena on October 5, 2018 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 5: How many of you will fade Harden tonight?

There are eight games on our Saturday, but only seven make the main DraftKings NBA tournament cut. The early game gets the showdown treatment between Charlotte and Denver. Still, there are more five figure players than there were last night, and we have to pay for one of them. Trust me on this.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($9,700): I usually don’t feel all that confident in paying up for Curry, but I’ll make an exception here. Curry went nuts on the Kings for 60.75 DraftKings points in the first game against them. No one on the perimeter can guard Curry, and I think his subpar game against the Rockets upset him. Curry is going to take his aggressions out on the Kings.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,300): Fox has put up 74 DraftKings points in two games against the Warriors so far this year. Both Hield and Bogdanovic have been scuffling a little lately. So has Fox, for that matter. I would agree that there is quite a bit of risk here because the Warriors could blow the Kings off the court. If you are going off of past history though, Fox is a strong bet to hit value here.

Honorable Mention:

Ricky Rubio ($5,800): There isn’t much I like in the middle tier of point guards. The Spurs have shut down Conley in his career. Rubio is a good option if he can play on back to back days. He was a game time decision up until about an hour before tip last night. This is a really good matchup if Rubio is fine, but keep an eye out for minutes restrictions or him being held out completely.

Elfrid Payton ($5,700): Payton returned to a normal minutes load on Wednesday, putting up 37 DraftKings points in 34 minutes against the Nets. Payton picked right up where he left off and is going to put up some good totals running one of the highest paced offenses in the league. Fade Holiday’s high price and enjoy the value on Payton while you still can. Both could be in play against a strong front tonight.

Dark Horses:

Austin Rivers ($4,900): We have an Austin Rivers sighting! He was last seen in San Francisco adding a dagger into the crowd at Oracle Arena before Harden finished them off (a few times). More importantly, Rivers put up 33 DraftKings points, which means he finally hit value in place of Chris Paul. Portland’s pace isn’t going to be quite so high, and if Gordon is back, I’ll fade Rivers again. If both Gordon and Paul are out, you can fire up Rivers.

Derrick White ($4,800): White turned in his fourth straight game of more than 5x value even though is streak of 30+ DraftKings points ended. Considering White only needs 28.8 DraftKings points for 6x value, he still looks underpriced to me. White is an impressive 24-35 from the field over the last four games. As long as he keeps shooting like this, the Spurs are going to keep playing him.

T.J. McConnell ($3,600): I obviously like McConnell more if Butler is out, but the fact is that McConnell was putting up strong numbers even with Butler in the lineup. McConnell has at least 20 DraftKings points in six straight games and at least 5x value in each of the last 11 games. He is a pretty low risk value play in any format right now. Just understand that he isn’t going to bust out a 30 anytime soon.

My pick: Curry(PG), McConnell(G); Payton(PG), White(G)

BOSTON, MA – DECEMBER 10: Jrue Holiday #11 of the New Orleans Pelicans dribbles against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden on December 10, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,200): Even if you haven’t seen what Harden has been doing in person or on TV, just look at the game log with CP3 out. It speaks for itself. Harden did only have 39.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Portland. The Blazers will be lucky to hold him to double that tonight. Harden has been over double that in the last two games. Just play him. Don’t overthink this.

Jrue Holiday ($8,100): The only reason that Holiday is still on here is because Cleveland doesn’t defend the perimeter well. The return of Elfrid Payton has predictably cut a large swath out of Holiday’s production. The shots are still there, but the assists are down, which is going to be a trend that continues. However, Holiday should get as many shots as he can handle here with Thompson clamping down on the Brow. Davis is only averaging 44 DraftKings points per game against Thompson in his career. There is some hidden value with Holiday here.

Honorable Mention:

Buddy Hield ($6,700): The pace up really seems to agree with Hield. He has 81.75 DraftKings points in 65 minutes against the Warriors this season. After a couple of cold games, Hield is back to sinking shots at an alarming rate, making 23 of 42 over the last two games, good for 81.25 DraftKings points.

J.J. Redick ($5,500): Redick was on fire against the Suns knocking down five triples en route to 43.5 DraftKings points. He was also on the court for 37 minutes, which is a direct product of Butler being out. Redick is a decent play at any rate because he is such a good shooter. However, he is almost elevated to must play status with Butler out because of all of the court time he gets.

Dark Horses:

Bryn Forbes ($4,500): Forbes has at least 23 DraftKings points, or right at 5x value, in each of the last seven games. Like White, he also looks underpriced. Also like White, Forbes continues to be very efficient from the field for the Spurs. Forbes has knocked down 40 of his 77 shots from the floor in that span. Ride these two while they’re hot.

Alec Burks ($4,400): His revenge against the Jazz went well. giving Burks over 6x value in three of the last four games. Burks put up 15 DraftKings points in 14 minutes against the Pelicans in the first meeting. There is a good chance that he comes close to 30 if he plays 25-28 minutes again. Burks is a pretty low risk value play tonight.

Dante Exum ($3,900): You could easily argue that Exum has outplayed Rubio in his two games back. Exum has at least continued to hit value for this price even with Rubio back. I do have serious questions as to whether the Jazz will let Rubio play in a back to back with him nicked up anyone. If Exum starts, use him. You need the value with Harden 1/4 of our budget anyway.

My pick: Harden(SG); Harden(SG)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans and Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers look on at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kawhi Leonard ($9,000): So much for Kawhi sticking it to the Spurs in his homecoming. It was DeRozan that stole the show as he posted his first career triple double. Kawhi had a measly 32.25 DraftKings points. He did put up 44 in the first meeting with the Bucks though, so if you are willing to go back to Kawhi, he could put up solid numbers.

Ben Simmons ($8,800): Jimmy Butler is once against questionable with an upper respiratory infection (Translation: he can’t stop bitching about his role on the team. Sound familiar?). If Butler remains out, Simmons is a strong pick once again. The Simmons/Doncic matchup is going to be a fun one to watch, but I don’t know if it will be all that lucrative for DFS reasons. If Butler is out there, I’ll pass on Simmons.

Honorable Mention:

Rudy Gay ($5,500): Gay put up 37 DraftKings points in the first meeting against his former team. You don’t really know what you’re getting out of the Spurs right now. They are having good guard play, and DeRozan is alternating whoppers with whimpers. If he holds to that pattern, this is a whimper, so Gay should easily hit value here.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,000): Aminu has at least 5x value in seven straight games, and even broke 40 last night against the Thunder, who are a solid team up front. The Rockets defend forwards well, but the CP3 and Gordon injuries are trickling down to the rest of the team. Yes, even enough to affect the rotations up front. I see Aminu having another strong game. He’s not dropping 40 again, but he could flirt with 6x value.

Dark Horses:

Kyle Anderson ($4,900): The Spurs faithful likely wont be nearly as rude to Anderson as they were to Kawhi, so I’m more inclined to use him here. Anderson had a solid 27.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Spurs in Memphis. The only thing that could move me off of Anderson is if Justin Holiday makes his Grizzlies debut tonight. That would likely cut a ways into Anderson’s minutes.

Gerald Green ($4,200): Green has 57.75 DraftKings points in the two games with Eric Gordon out. Gordon is doubtful at best for this one, so Green is a superb value play once again. Portland can’t guard forwards either, so Green could have even more upside in this one. He will be in all of my lineups tonight. This is too good to pass up.

Norman Powell ($3,400): Powell was a value darling many times last year, but he has struggled almost all season long. However, when the calendar struck 2019, Powell woke up. He has 51.5 DraftKings points over his two 2019 games. I am nervous because of the small sample size, but he can’t possibly be as bad as Daniel Hamilton last night at this price, right? RIGHT?

My pick: Green(SF), Powell(UTIL); Aminu(SF), Green(UTIL)

MILWAUKEE, WI – APRIL 20: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks over Aron Baynes #46 of the Boston Celtics during the second half of game three of round one of the Eastern Conference playoffs at the Bradley Center on April 20, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): The Bucks were clearly saving Giannis and most of the starters for tonight. Giannis played just 19 minutes in the dismantling of the Hawks but still put up a staggering 47 DraftKings points. That’s about 2.5 DraftKings points per minute! With the way Toronto is playing anyway, there’s a chance that Giannis wont go nuts. However considering he went for 54.75 DraftKings points in the first game against the Raptors, I would say Giannis is going to be awfully close to 5x value if he doesn’t hit it.

Kevin Durant ($9,400): Durant has demolished the Kings in both meetings this year. KD has 128.75 DraftKings points in 76 minutes. Giannis spoiled us last night. This is a really good total from Durant. He and Curry have been the two that have really steamrolled the Kings. They could both top 60 again, and give you a nice head start to the cash line.

Honorable Mention:

Draymond Green ($6,800): Green’s price jumped nearly $1,000 since Thursday, but I’m really not surprised. He had a nice game against the Rockets, and opposing frontcourts have ravaged the Kings lately. Green put up 35.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Sacramento. It’s kind of tough to get value out of Curry, KD, and Draymond, but they all have against the Kings so far this year. Green may be the safer play though since his price is so much lower.

Pascal Siakam ($6,200): The Bucks aren’t exactly a pushover up front, but Siakam has held his own against them so far this year. Siakam has 79.25 DraftKings points in just 58 minutes against the Bucks so far. Once could be a fluke. Two good games against Milwaukee doesn’t really look like a fluke at this point. Siakam could flirt with 6x value tonight.

Nemanja Bjelica ($5,400): Bagley is still out even though he knee seems to be pain free. The window is closing for Bjelica, but we can still squeeze a little value out of him. It’s going to be harder to do against the Warriors. Just look at Tucker’s awful line on Thursday. However, Bjelica is such a sharpshooter from the outside that he still has a good chance to affect this game.

Dark Horses:

Danuel House ($4,500): Despite the return of James Ennis, House’s numbers actually went up last game. House now has five straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points. I would watch to see if Ennis is on a minutes limit again. He should be, but if that limit is closer to 30 than 20, someone’s value is going to take a hit. House is probably the first one who’s production would dip. There could be risk here, but House is playing very well right now.

Kevon Looney ($4,000): The Warriors still rotate bigs a lot, so Looney doesn’t see a ton of minutes. Still, he has put up at least 20 DraftKings points in six of the last seven games. That makes Looney a low risk value play. Hey, if I had 20 from my value pick last night, I would have cracked the top 1000. Something can be said for sure value.

Ersan Ilyasova ($3,300): The Bucks, and DFS players alike, didn’t realize how much Ilyasova was missed until he wasn’t there. Ilya made an impact in his first game in three weeks last night with 27.5 DraftKings points. He may not get the 19 minutes again, but he should be close. Ilyasova also lit up the Toronto front for 53 DraftKings points in just 40 minutes in the first two games earlier this year. I love the value here tonight.

My pick: Durant(PF), Looney(C), Ilyasova(F); Looney(PF), Ilyasova(F)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – NOVEMBER 21: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers talks to Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans in the fourth quarter at the Wells Fargo Center on November 21, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Centers

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,600): I touched a little earlier on Davis against Thompson and the Cavs. The past numbers haven’t been good. Now it’s time for the good news. Davis is having the best season of his career, and it really isn’t close. He is averaging more than 5x his price point on the season. Even if Davis is below his season average, he’s at least getting close to 5x value. I can’t recommend him over Harden or Giannis, and you aren’t fitting all three into the same lineup, so that presents a bit of a conundrum. If you are going with Davis, it’s for low ownership and you’re hoping against hope for another 60 and a Bucks blowout of the Raptors.

Joel Embiid ($10,800): Embiid is on quite a roll right now, putting up at least 60 DraftKings points in four straight games. Dallas is a bit of a tougher opponent, but it’s not like Embiid has done this against a ton of nobodies. In his reign of terror lie Boston, Utah, and the Clippers besides the lowly Suns. I wouldn’t rule out Embiid putting up 60 again tonight, and he may be an even better play than Davis at $800 less.

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Honorable Mention:

Andre Drummond ($7,900): You’re just going to have to hear me out on this one. Drummond hasn’t topped 35 DraftKings points since the day after Christmas even though he is still getting double doubles with regularity. The Pistons have suffered two blowouts in that span and in another of those games Drummond was in foul trouble. The last of those was against Memphis, so you can understand why he was so low. Gobert has actually not defended opposing centers well this year, and with Utah allowing the least fantasy points in the league to power forwards, it would seem like Drummond would have to be the one to get anything going tonight. He was priced over $9,000 ten days ago. This qualifies as a big discount.

Rudy Gobert ($7,500): For all of Drummond’s rebounding prowess, he is actually an average defender. Gobert has picked it up offensively lately, going for at least 35 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games, including against Cleveland with Thompson back last night. Gobert is the more sure thing to the Drummond flier. Use whichever one suits your build the best.

Dark Horses:

Serge Ibaka ($5,800): For as good as Siakam has been against the Bucks, Ibaka has been even better. Serge has 90.25 DraftKings points in just 60 minutes of court time. Lopez has been strong lately, but not to the point where I don’t like Ibaka here. I’m not sure Ibaka hits 40 again, but 30’s is definitely possible.

Brook Lopez ($5,400): Okay, it’s not that Lopez has played poorly against Toronto. He does have 48.75 DraftKings points in the two meetings. It’s just that his numbers are far below Ibaka’s for essentially the same price. The caveat here is that Lopez has been much better than Ibaka of late. Lopez has at least 5x value in five of the last six games. It would have been six of six had he not only seen 22 minutes in the blowout win last night. Do you ride the hot hand or ride what Serge did earlier this year?

My pick: N/A; Embiid(C)

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