Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Sunday January 6
Welcome into the Sunday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! It’s not a big surprise with NFL playoffs going on, but we just have a small four game slate on hand tonight.
It’s a pretty quiet night in the Association but it’s still a pretty interesting slate. If you haven’t read before, when we talk about fades on a slate this small, it doesn’t mean I won’t consider said player. It simply means I’m more hesitant. With so few options, everyone must be in consideration to some extent. Let’s see who looks good tonight in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard
Top Play – Kemba Walker, Hornets
I think the majority of people will plug-in Russell Westbrook into this slot and move on. It’s hard to argue that for any real reason, but Walker might come in at a much lower ownership and has a ceiling that can get you within shouting distance of Westbrook. You do have to hope the Suns can keep the game close but if they do, Walker has a great spot to take advantage of.
Phoenix gives up the seventh most real points to point guards and the Hornets are missing Jeremy Lamb and Cody Zeller. It’s a little bit weird that Walker hasn’t seen a big FPPM jump without those players but he still sits at a hefty 32 percent usage and 1.23 FPPM, which is nothing to sneer at. Considering he represents a $2-3,000 savings, Walker is a great way to move off the Westbrook chalkiness if you’d like.
Honorable Mention – Russell Westbrook, Thunder
Fade – Tomas Satoransky, Wizards
This is one spot where I realistically might not play this player at all. Satoransky has mostly been incredible since John Wall has been out for the season but we got a glimpse of the floor in this past game. He didn’t break 20 fantasy points on either site despite playing 30+ minutes and it really highlighted Satoransky’s biggest flaw – his usage.
It’s not a normal player that I get too excited about when their usage is under 15 percent. There are definitely exceptions but Satoransky isn’t really one of them. His role as a facilitator is simply too limited in the Washington offense to continually smash his price point and it’s still hovering around or above $6,000. The Thunder are the second toughest team on point guards via DK and I’ll be passing on him this evening.
Honorable Mention – Trae Young, Hawks
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard
Top Play – Victor Oladipo, Pacers
Especially on DK, Oladipo simply isn’t expensive enough quite yet and he seems to be heating up after being bothered by a shoulder injury for a while. The Raptors aren’t the best matchup but they will be on their third game in four days and might have some tired legs here. If they’re sloppy at all, Oladipo could be there to take advantage as he’s been a terror in the steals department lately. That’s not the best thing to project but it’s a nice little bonus.
We’re targeting Oladipo because of his price and if the Pacers want to win this game, Oladipo is going to have to lead the way. He’s been kicking in a lot of rebounds and assists lately, to the point where both categories are at career highs. He’s also taking more three pointers which just adds to the scoring potential and seeing a boatload of minutes. All the factors add up in Oladipo’s favor tonight.
Honorable Mention – Malik Monk, Hornets if you need to save some salary
Fade – Dwayne Wade, Heat
Wade showed no effects from the illness that kept him out of a game recently in this past game so that isn’t my concern at all. Basically anytime the Hawks take the floor, we have to factor in the possibility of a blowout. If that happens, Wade is not likely to see enough minutes to make it worth playing him. As it is with every position, it’s a great matchup for Wade because Atlanta can’t defend anyone.
I can see Wade going vintage Wade and turning back the clock if the game stays close. He’s typically one of the first players out of the rotation in blowouts so they can preserve his legs through the season. The Hawks offer that risk more than almost any team in basketball on any given night, so Wade comes with some extra risk tonight.
Honorable Mention – Dennis Schroeder, Thunder
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward
Top Play – Justise Winslow, Heat
I might not one of the older members of the Heat but I will go right back to Winslow given the spot. With him being the point guard, we have to consider the numbers that Atlanta gives up to the point, because they are egregious. They are the second most generous team to the position across the league and their rankings in individual categories are as bad as one might think. They rank in the bottom five in real points, rebounds, assists, three pointers made and steals given up.
Possibly the best part of the equation is Winslow has had three straight mediocre games. While that hasn’t helped you those nights, his price really isn’t as high as it should be. Over on FD, it’s nice to have the ability to play three point guards if you choose because Winslow is really not a small forward anymore. Take advantage of that misnomer and play Winslow tonight against the “defense” of Trae Young and Atlanta as a whole.
Honorable Mention – Paul George, Thunder
Fade – Jeff Green, Wizards
This really doesn’t have anything to do with the poor game Green put forward the last time. It has a lot more to do with the increase in minutes that we started to see from Otto Porter. He went from 13 to 22 in the past two games and that’s likely to continue on the upward trend. It wouldn’t surprise me if Porter started in this one, which would be a red flag.
Green still saw the court for 30+ minutes in this past contest but that wasn’t the case when Porter was healthy. Now that Green does have a bad game under his belt, it’ll be easier to go back to status quo and have him fill a reserve role. His price wouldn’t reflect that change yet and I won’t be playing much of him, especially if we get an idea of Porter’s minutes before tip.
Honorable Mention – Nicholas Batum, Hornets
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward
Top Play – Jerami Grant, Thunder
I know for a fact that this is the first time Grant has been in this column but this is as good a game as he can get to try to catch a great fantasy performance. First, the Wizards play at a very high pace and rank ninth in the league. With the Thunder ranking fourth, that affords Grant additional opportunities to rack up points. It’s on the rare side he doesn’t see at least 30 minutes, and he does a little bit of everything when he’s out there. This is a good example of being okay with targeting a player without a high usage. With Westbrook and Paul George in the offense, there’s basically crumbs to go around.
Having said that, Grant still averages 0.78 FPPM this season which isn’t terrible on its own. Now he gets a good pace spot and the Wizards are the sixth worst DK team against power forwards in the league. Much like Atlanta, any position is in play against the Wizards defense. Realistically, you must have some salary savers somewhere if you want some fo the big guns tonight. Grant is a great way to get access to a high total game at a very affordable price.
Honorable Mention – Domantis Sabonis, Pacers
Fade – John Collins, Hawks
I’m a little more willing to take the stab on DK than FD, but the price is a little high on both sites since Dewayne Dedmon and Alex Len are both active. The minutes really haven’t been there for Collins the past two games and if he’s not getting big minutes, he’s not going to be worth the big price tag. Miami is also an interesting team in the paint, which is where Collins does a lot of his damage.
The Heat are mid-pack in rebounds given up in the paint, so I can see Collins still getting his share of the boards. Where Miami excels defensively is points in the paint, which they rank as the fifth best team. I think Collins can probably still eke out a double-double because he’s just a good player but there is definitive floor and risk built-in. The only way I could see that changing is if Len or Dedmon get ruled out during the day.
Honorable Mention – None, especially on FD
Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center
Top Play – Bismack Biyombo, Hornets
There is a caveat to the top play – he has to draw the start for the Hornets. I’m kind of assuming he does because the Suns do boast Deandre Ayton on the other side, who is fifth in paint touches this season. Yes, I know Ayton was terrible when I just wrote him up. I played him too, don’t get me started. Anyways, Biyombo might be needed to combat the rookie in the paint and he showed out against the Nuggets yesterday, recording a double-double. There’s really no reason to think he won’t draw the start here as well.
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If he does, the Phoenix matchup is one that we have consistently hammered all season long and it’s almost always worked. Ayton cannot defense much of anything and Biyombo will be utter and total chalk at his price point. My recommendation is to just eat it and deal with it, especially on a four game slate. If he goes bonkers again, you could really be in a tough spot in cash game formats and even in GPP. On DK, it’s even easier to stomach because you can combine Biyombo with another big name center, which would be my plan.
Honorable Mention – Steven Adams, Thunder
Fade – None
I always try to be honest in this space and there’s really not a center that I would totally cross off my list here. Ayton himself is a solid play, as the Hornets are weak in the interior and he was relatively highly owned when he stunk up the gym against the Clippers. You might be able to take advantage of that recency bias and get right back to him.
Hassan Whiteside is in a glorious spot of his own, against the soft Hawks interior defense and could come close to replicating his monster game against the Cavs the last time out. He came close to 30 minutes, which would almost guarantee his success(as much as you can with Whiteside).
Thomas Bryant doesn’t have a good matchup but they need him on the floor to deal with Steven Adams. I don’t think it will be fantasy gold, but the minutes should be there after a slight reduction this past game. There’s nobody on the high end that warrants a fade and it just comes down to roster construction. You need to be comfortable with how many players from one team that you have.
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