NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday January 7 – Harden and then what?
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Happy Monday all – hopefully you enjoyed Wild Card Weekend in the NFL and got to dabble in some NBA DFS as well as Sunday;s slate was relatively low scoring with Russell Westbrook the only player to eclipse 50 fantasy points (62) while only four other players managed to top even 40 which kept scores predictably low across the industry.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Monday Night NBA DFS Slate:
At first glance looking over this seven game slate, what really stands out to me is that we only have 3-4 games (pending Lakers/Denver) with totals over 220 on this seven game slate on FantasyDraft and more than half the teams see a projected pace decrease – note, FantasyDraft is starting the slate at 7:30 PM EST and leaving off the Spurs-Pistons game which starts at 7PM EST.
So it appears at first glance there are very few “must have” game environments with gaudy Vegas data but that certainly does not mean we lack any “must have” players and that all starts with James Harden ($21.3K), the slates most expensive investment.
Harden had a down game against Portland, which consisted of him going for 38 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists and “only” 58 fantasy points and I see that with complete sarcasm. The Rockets star shot the ball a whopping 35 times and with Chris Paul and Eric Gordon out again today, the 70-90 point upside he was showing in the previous three games is firmly back on the table here.
On Saturday, Harden was only 58% owned in the $25 Pick and Roll on FantasyDraft and I say that because no matter how much it seems he needs to be 100% owned, the masses rarely seem to give him that love. On FantasyDraft the pricing is soft enough where you can lock him in and still have over $11.2K per player for the rest of your build. If last games inefficiency is going to lower or even keep his ownership sub 60% then I would argue you have a leg up on over 40% of the field in tournaments.
You certainly can make the case to expand on Harden and game stack this spot with Denver as you have clear stars to build around with Harden and Nikola Jokic ($18.1K) on the other side, but Vegas is telling us that this is a game with the lowest projected pace where both teams see a 2-3 point decrease off their season average.
With the Nuggets getting back to full health with Paul Millsap and Gary Harris back on the court and Will Barton a few days away, this Denver team is going to be back to having tons of mouths to feed and becomes alot like how I few the Boston Celtics. When healthy, they all feel a tad too pricey but when 1-2 guys are out, they become a spot to build around. Tonight with the Nuggets rolling a deep rotation, this may be a spot to play Harden and fade the rest entirely.
NBA DFS – Building around the Beard:
As I mentioned, there seems to be a lack of elite game environments tonight which makes narrowing down the player pool a much tougher task as honestly, nothing really jumps off the page.
As much as I would love to pair Harden with guys like Anthony Davis or Giannis Antetokounmpo, I am not sure tonight is the night to invest in these stars as their match-up with the Grizzlies and Jazz, two top 5 defensive teams in the NBA which is leading me to pay down slightly to Nikola Vucevic ($17.4K) against the Kings.
We have seen opposing big men simply destroy this Kings interior in recent games as guys like Jusuf Nurkic (83 fantasy points), Nikola Jokic (56) and Montrezl Harrel (48) have all had big games against Sacramento over the last two weeks.
These two teams faced off earlier in the season and Vuc was held to a reasonable total of 45 fantasy points, racking up 15/15 in only 27 minutes of court time. Over the last 10 games the Kings have played at the 4th fastest pace while also sporting the 4th worst defensive rating so I am more apt to side with the recent struggles and discard the early season match-up in this case.
The Orlando Magic see the biggest pace and point boost on the slate and when you dig deeper into their roster on FantasyDraft, you will see a team priced incredibly reasonably which makes them a potential stack spot around Harden.
Outside of Vuc, only Aaron Gordon ($12.5K) and Evan Fournier ($11.1K) are priced over $10K with D.J Augustin ($8.8K) looking like one of the better values on this slate. On the season, the Kings rank 27th in Def-Eff, ranking dead last against SG’s, and 21st or worse against PG, PF and Center so there is an argument to be made here for the all-in Magic stack.
If you go this route, do no overlook the fact that Orlando ranks 24th in defensive rating the last 10 games so this could be a spot where both teams rack up points with little resistance. Keep an eye on the status of Marvin Bagley and Iman Shumpert as the Kings ran a short-handed rotation against the Warriors on Saturday with the starting five plus Justin Jackson all playing 30+ minutes.
NBA DFS – Picking your Spots:
The one game we do not yet have a total for is Dallas and Los Angeles as we await the injury status of Kyle Kuzma but with this game having the fastest projected pace and being the only game where both teams see a pace boost, it may be the spot to pick and choose from even with, said nicely, the chaos that is in LA right now.
Let’s start with the easier side to break down – Dallas – who gets the second largest pace boost on the slate and will play a Lakers team that leads the NBA in pace over the last 10 games. Luka Doncic ($14.5K) is the premier play from Dallas and can be paired in GPP’s with Dennis Smith Jr. ($8.5K) who has seen his price drop to an incredibly cheap level after a massive dud against Philadelphia last time out.
I am willing to go back to the well here with DSJ as that game was the second night of a back to back and 3 games in 4 nights on the road and after getting Sunday off, Dallas is back home until Friday.
DeAndre Jordan ($12K) and Harrison Barnes ($10.1K) never feel like the sexiest rosters but I love the 40+ fantasy upside with both at these price points in a balanced roster build. Barnes dropped 43 against the Lakers the last time they met while DJ just put up 40+ fantasy points in three of his last seven games.
The Lakers side, let’s just be honest, is a total mess. On Sunday, while many of us were watching football, the Lakers rolled out a Zubac/McGee starting line-up and proceeded to get their doors blown off by Minnesota, trailing by 20 at the half so I would expect a more traditional line-up tonight where Luke Walton could be fighting for his job.
With LeBron James sidelined, Brandon Ingram ($14.1K) is really the only player can we trust on this Lakers team and even that may seem like a stretch after no single player on LA managed to hit 30 fantasy points against Minnesota.
Remember when LeBron first went out, and everyone was tripping over themselves to roster the Lakers value? After yesterday’s disaster, I could see the Lakers being a team everyone just tries to avoid on this slate which makes them tremendous GPP plays. If you loved the upside and usage when LeBron first went out, then you should still love the logic now and tonight will probably the lowest owned you can grab these guys.
Kyle Kuzma ($13.9K) was a game time decision yesterday and although he went through pre-game warmups, was ultimately ruled out but if he is back and with no minutes limit, this is a guy who was locked into 40+ minutes a night prior to the injury.
Once we have the Vegas data for this game, I assume it will be one of the highest totals, if not the highest total on the board. If this game was played a week ago, everyone and their mother would be stacking it with the LeBron-less value but after a string of under-performance, it may be the spot that gets overlooked and allows us to stack it up at low ownership.
NBA DFS – Pivot Stack:
One game that did not stand out at first glance but becomes more interesting as I dig in is the Bucks-Jazz, a game with the second highest total on the slate at 222 and the second fastest projected pace.
What becomes very interesting in this game is the pricing – where you can basically stack up any and all the relevant pieces here without much of an issue.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($20.6K) is a great pivot off James Harden if you want to get crazy and he did have 69 and 51 fantasy points against the Jazz in two games last year. The better route though may be to use James Harden as the one-off and then stack the rest of this game excluding Giannis.
No Bucks players are over $13K with Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Malcolm Brogdon sitting between $10K-$12K with Brook Lopez just a shade under $10K. The Bucks have gone for 116, 121, 129 and 144 points in their last four games and you get the benefit of a consistent starting core with 30+ minutes of court time every single night. Normally we would not prioritize the Bucks secondary pieces but that is where the Harden play here makes sense as correlation – you are playing the angle that Giannis takes a back seat (to the extent he can) and the other Bucks guys carry the load in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring, fastest pace games of the night.
The Jazz are very much like the Bucks – you have a core group here – Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Ricky Rubio and Joe Ingles that along with Jae Crowder/Derrick Favors, give you essentially all the run for the Jazz.
To me, this is a game stack or nothing kind of game. The prices all seem reasonable – both teams are fully healthy, so there is no amazing point per dollar play but what you have here is a game that you can stack due to the pricing, it correlates easily and it allows you to get in one stud – whether you go with Giannis or leave him out and use Harden, is a route you can explore.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
The sample lineup noted below is meant to be illustrative ONLY and is not meant to be a Plug and Play build.
Slate Overview: I have to admit, I do not have a good feel for this slate at first glance. Nothing really jumps out and it feels instead like a GPP only slate with more risk than cash game safety and I think its important to be transparent when breaking it down for you.
Listen, maybe you will see things different but all I see on this slate is slow-paced games, potential blowouts (Nets/Celtics and Knicks/Portland) and a ton of volatility in the best pure game environments. The fact that the Magic/Kings and Lakers/Mavs are the best spots to attack, tells you this is likely a slate where you go GPP focused and leave cash games for another night.
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G: James Harden
G: Luka Doncic
G: Dennis Smith Jr.
F/C: DeAndre Jordan
F/C: Brandon Ingram
F/C: Kyle Kuzma
UTIL: Wes Matthews
UTIL: Ivica Zubac
Again, I think you can make the case the stack the Magic/Kings just as strong as you can for the Lakers/Dallas but my initial lean is to go heavy on the Lakers as it feels like the spot everyone loved a week ago and jumps off tonight. The Bucks/Jazz game is really where I could see pivoting too entirely as a result of the pricing especially if it goes over-looked.
Good luck tonight all! This is looking like a GPP game stack kinda slate where you make your stand and hope you hit the right environment.
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