Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Picks – Monday, January 7th

Welcome to this edition of Yahoo NBA DFS GPP Picks from FantasyCPR. I have recently written some content for NFL and PGA on Yahoo Fantasy, and with the buzz they have recently created for their product, my hope is that more and more of you will eventually venture over there. 

In this almost daily piece, I will go over some players to target for the guaranteed prize pool (GPP) tournaments for today’s Yahoo NBA DFS action. They will be broken down into tiers, and I will highlight my top plays position by position. Following all the targets on the last slide, will be the FantasyCPR staple, sample lineup.

Once again Yahoo is offering a rake free $10 GPP with 10-max entries. This tournament is becoming a daily staple, and the size of it has kind been going hand-in-hand with the size of the slate. I was all set to finish up my Sunday article yesterday, and I noticed the tournament was already full! Today’s is a lot bigger with 10,000 spots as opposed to yesterdays 2500, and it will be interesting to see what time this one fills. If we keep filling them fast, they will get bigger, and as long as they stay 10-max, I am in on this every day.

Tonight we have a solid 8-game slate, and plenty of Vegas data is already available for me to dig in to here. There is only one game with no line posted yet, and that is in Dallas, where the Mavericks will host the Lakers, who will still be without LeBron James. Kyle Kuzma remains questionable as well, which is most likely why we have no line in this one. With plenty of info to get you some targets, let’s get right to it today.

Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Picks – 1/7/19

Point Guard: 

High Tier – De’Aaron Fox – $32

Once again, we have eight games on the slate tonight, and surprisingly there are only a couple of game totals over 220. One of those games will be in Sacramento, where the Kings will be hosting the Magic. The Kings have lost four straight, and not coincidentally, Fox has been ice cold in that span.,

After six straight games of going for 40+ YP, Fox has now averaged just 25.1 YP over the last three. With Kyrie Irving coming back from his eye injury, and Damian Lillard and his Blazers likely to blowout the Knicks, Fox is my top play at the position, as I think the Kings will get snap their losing streak tonight. Be prepared to get a heavy dose of targets from this game, as this looks like my go-to stack spot.

Mid Tier – Mike Conley – $27

As long as I see no injury tag on Conley, I am on board at this price. You always have to be careful here with the veteran however, as he could come up as questionable at any point in the day. When he has played though, he has been solid all season. Averaging 36.8 YP per game, Conley recently had a monster 47.6 YP game against Brooklyn on Friday.

This should be a close game tonight in New Orleans, where the Grizz will face the Pels. With Memphis not playing tomorrow, and a projected close game, we should see plenty of run for Conley tonight. This price might be a little low here, as I can see Conley breaking 40+ YP in this one.

Low Tier – Austin Rivers – $13

I never feel confident in writing up Rivers, but Chris Paul and Eric Gordon will remain out, and I had to do a double take myself when I saw that Rivers is averaging over 40 minutes per game in the last three. Big minutes don’t always translate to big fantasy points, but if you want to roster one of the top studs tonight, this is a great spot to give a look.

Denver isn’t great at defending point guards this season, and Gary Harris will be busy with James Harden in this one, so it could open up some extra looks for Rivers tonight. He scored 21 points against Portland on Saturday, but only had one rebound and one assist, so it only amounted to 22.7 YP. I am personally thinking a balanced approach may be the way to go tonight, but if I look to value at this position I will go Rivers by default.

Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Picks – 1/7/19

Shooting Guard:

High Tier – James Harden $58

We always want to pay up for The Beard, but do this… Plug in Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo and go from there and you $14 per player left over. This could be a solid strategy by late this afternoon when some more value opens up, but right now I am just not seeing it. I think we can almost fade all of the big three, including Anthony Davis, and take a balanced approach, but if you want to roster two of three of these guys it can be done.

Harden just had his streak of 40 point games snapped at five, as he came up just short wth 38 at Portland on Saturday night. The match-up might be tough with a healthy Gary Harris on the other side, but there is little doubt Harden will end up one of the top three fantasy scorers of the night.

Mid Tier – Malcolm Brogdon – $20

Brogdon and the Bucks will face the Jazz for the first time this season tonight at Fiserv Forum. The Jazz are wrapping up a road trip, and looking to win their third straight. Milwaukee will be looking to bounce back from a home loss to the Raptors on Saturday.

While he is the third or fourth scoring option on this team, Brogdon has been consistent all season long when healthy. He has cracked 30 YP in four of the last eight, and this should be another close game for the Bucks.

Low Tier – Terrence Ross – $10

Did you decide to play the studs? If so, Ross is a guy who should get you the 20-25 YP you are looking for in this one. I mentioned I liked the Kings tonight, but targeting both sides of the ball is never a bad idea. The Magic will be in Sacramento in what will easily be the fastest paced game on the slate, and Ross’ minutes are trending upwards.

Four games ago, Ross played just 18 minutes in a blowout loss to Charlotte. He managed 19.5 YP in that one in limited action, and subsequently has played 23-26 minutes in each of the last three games. Ross put up 26.2 YP against the Bulls last Wednesday, and most recently posted 23.5 YP against the Clippers yesterday.

Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Picks – 1/7/19

Small Forward:

High Tier – Buddy Hield – $29

More Kings! Buddy can be hit or miss, but I should start this by saying that this position is pretty awful tonight. Hield has put together three straight solid games while Fox has struggled, and it will be really nice when these two both get back on the same page, and have a big games on the same night.

In those three games, Hield posted 40 YP against Portland, 36.4 against Denver, then had his best game since before Christmas with his 32 point, 44 YP performance against the Warriors on Saturday. These teams have not met since October 30th in Orlando, and Hield posted 43.7 YP in that first meeting

Mid Tier – Gordon Hayward – $22

Keep an eye on the status of Marcus Morris, as he should return for this one and eat up some minutes, but Hayward is heating up. He finally played 30+ minutes in back-to-back games this season in the last two, as he has been eased back into action all season after last years gruesome injury.

Hayward’s uptick in scoring has no doubt been a product of Kyrie Irving missing the last two games, but he has looked solid while eclipsing 40 YP in each game. I may end up a game late on this one, but Hayward is still a solid player, and could easily keep this up if he keeps getting the minutes.

Low Tier – Moe Harkless – $13

Harkless will likely get overlooked with the GTD tag, as he was rested Saturday with a lingering knee injury, but fully expects to play against the Knicks tonight. He has been racking up fantasy points over the last four games, crashing the boards and blocking shots.

In that span, Harkless is averaging right around a fantasy point per minute on the court, so it could all come down to how much run he gets. If Portland can blowout the Knicks, I don’t see Harkless getting much run with the bad knee. If you feel a blowout is the most likely scenario, Evan Turner could be the correct pivot at just $11, as he would likely play more minutes if this one gets out of hand.

Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Picks – 1/7/19

Power Forward:

High Tier – Giannis Antetokounmpo – $56

If I decide to pay up at all tonight and not go balanced, the Greek Freak is my top choice. My only real hesitation here is that position is actually loaded, and position depth should always be a factor on which studs you decide to play when there are more than a few to choose from. The Bucks have a tough test against the Jazz tonight, and will be looking to avenge a loss last time out, and improve on their NBA best 27-11 record.

As the season approaches the halfway point, the Bucks have been starting to monitor Antetokounmpo’s minutes a bit, and resting him wherever possible. In the 144-112 dismantling of the Hawks on Thursday, Giannis came up two rebounds short of a triple-double, and posted 49.6 YP.

No big deal right? He did that in just 19 minutes which in fact, makes it absolutely incredible. They wanted to keep him fresh for the Raptors, but his 67.6 YP effort the following night wasn’t enough, as the Bucks came up short in that one. Freak played 40 minutes, and that could be the case again tonight if the Jazz can stay in this game. Big minutes equal huge games for Antetokounmpo, and the battle inside with Rudy Gobert should be a good one.

Mid Tier – Noah Vonleh – $21

Revenge narrative alert! Vonleh will be back in Portland, and in his first crack at revenge back in November, he had a solid game. Vonleh put up 14 points and grabbed 14 boards in that one, and finished with 45.8 YP. He had been consistently playing around 35 minutes per night, but played just 17 minutes against the Lakers last time out on Thursday.

It seems Enes Kanter is back in the rotation a bit after a couple of solid games, but even in just 17 minutes, Vonleh was effective. He was able to nab four steals which inflated his total a bit, but he finished with 32.5 YP. After bouncing back nicely from a poor game against Denver, I expect Vonleh to get back to 30+ minutes tonight in Portland, where he spent his first few seasons in the NBA.

Low Tier – DeMarre Carroll – $13

Brooklyn doesn’t normally appeal much to me as far as fantasy targets go. But injuries to Allen Crabbe and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have opened up big minutes for Carroll, and he has now put together five solid games in a row. The match-up will be tough tonight in Boston against the Celtics, but the Nets have won three straight games, and Carroll has scored 20 points in two straight.

Carroll’s worst game in that five game span was against a tough defensive opponent in Memphis, and he was able to post 27.5 YP in that one. His best game was in yesterday’s win against the Bulls, as he finished with 33.8 YP in 30 minutes of action. This is my favorite low-tier value option on the slate, as this price feels way to low someone who been consistently putting up almost 30 YP per night for a week plus.

Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Picks – 1/7/19

Center: 

High Tier – Nikola Vucevic – $40 

Vucci Mane has been crushing all season long, averaging almost 45 YP per game on the season. He is coming off of a monster 59.8 YP yesterday against the Clippers, in which he grabbed every rebound in sight, and finished with 24. More impressive is the all-around game, as Vuc nearly triple-doubled, adding eight assists.

There is one thing to keep an eye here, and it is the fact that the Magic are on a back-to-back. The last time Vucevic played on the second leg was on New Years Eve, and it was his worst game since before Christmas. The match-up is pretty good against Willie Cauley-Stein, as I don’t see him keeping up with Vuc around the perimeter.

No doubt Anthony Davis is the top play and he will likely be the most popular center tonight, but I like Vucevic for the fact that he will be under owned because of the back-to-back.

Mid Tier – Rudy Gobert – $32

Going balanced I can’t quite pay for Vucevic, so even though there is plenty of risk with Gobert on a nightly basis, this is a great spot against the Bucks and Brook Lopez. Sure Antetokounmpo will be in the paint to help on occasion, but this looks like a huge rebound spot for Gobert.

Gobert posted just 28.7 YP on Saturday against Detroit and Andre Drummond, but that was on the second leg of a back-to-back, as the Jazz cruise through this midwest road trip. He has gone over 40 YP in four of the last six, and I think fatigue and early foul trouble had plenty to do with last games blunder. I love me a lower owned bounce back candidate, so Gobert is very much in play for me tonight

Low Tier – Willie Cauley-Stein – $26

One more Sacramento King before we wrap this up and get to the sample lineup. Sticking with the theme of going balanced once again, Cauley-Stein not only fits my Kings stack, he also seems under priced with the rest of the team. There is another option at this same price back at that loaded power forward position in Aaron Gordon, and I may run it back with him instead at the utility spot. But for now, Cauley-Stein has my attention.

WCS was able to post a double-double in the first meeting between these teams, with 14 points and 11 rebounds in just under 30 minutes. He has been up-and-down as of late, but showed some life last time out in a losing effort against the Warriors on Saturday. Cauley-Stein finished with 43.6 YP in that one, and it was his first time with 40+ since before Christmas. Gordon or WCS, flip a coin at this point. Who knows though, by 3:00 it could easily be “stars and scrubs” instead.

Yahoo NBA DFS: GPP Picks – Sample Lineup – 1/7/19

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides. It is not an optimal line-up. It is in fact, just a “Sample Lineup.”

PG – De’Aaron Fox – $32
SG – Malcom Brogdon – $20
G – Mike Conley – $27
SF – Buddy Hield – $29
PF – Noah Vonleh – $21
F – DeMarre Carroll – $13
C – Rudy Gobert – $32
Util – Willie Cauley-Stein – $26

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