DraftKings NBA Picks January 8: This slate is rated PG-13
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks January 8: This slate is rated PG-13
We have another eight games for our DraftKings NBA slate tonight. There are six more players with five figure salaries. As opposed to last night, most of them have good matchups. The TimberBulls are no more with Thibs out, and Sacramento is in a smash spot again. Buckle up, this is going to be a fun one!
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The money line was a solid 277.25 last night. I had one lineup that finished early with 284 points that was able to hang on. The other failed thanks to a terrible fantasy night for the (lack of) Magic. But hey, Harden hit value and more than half of you faded him!
The winning lineup was up a bit to 338.75. He built around Harden and DeRozan and got strong nights from Clint Capela and DeAndre Jordan. The value of Rodions Kurucs with Carroll out and Terrence Ross vaulted him up the list.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
Ben Simmons ($9,100): I really don’t like the top of point guards tonight. Westbrook probably wont hit value against Minnesota. He didn’t the first time. Curry and the Warriors against the Knicks is going to be a blowout again, Curry didn’t hit value the first time, and likely wont again. Simmons put up 38.5 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes in the first game against Washington. I don’t like the return of Butler here, but this Washington defense is bad enough that most Sixers deserve consideration anyway.
Kyle Lowry ($7,700): Lowry destroyed the Hawks for 66.5 DraftKings points in just 32 minutes in the first meeting. Why is that important? Because Lowry played 32 minutes in his return to the floor on Sunday. I would imagine that Lowry will play about that many minutes no matter what the score is in this one, so he could be pretty cheap at this price. I would rather take the shot on Lowry than Oladipo against Cleveland.
Honorable Mention:
De’Aaron Fox ($7,200): Fox put up 36.25 DraftKings points in just 23 minutes in the convincing win over Orlando last night. This was not the game that I was looking at as the late night blowout. This was the first time Fox has hit value in 2019, but we shouldn’t have to wait long for the second with Phoenix on the docket tonight and Booker maybe sitting out.
Jeff Teague ($6,500): I am curious to see how this is going to shake out for Minnesota, in particular the bench. Thibs ran seven or eight players for more than 30 minutes. Will those rotations stick? Teague has 90 DraftKings points in the last two games with Rose out. Rose will be out tonight, but play Friday. I’d like to personally thank the team for making this easy for us DFS players. I doubt Teague hits 45 DraftKings points tonight, but he should hit value.
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,800): I’m not a huge fan of Mudiay here, but he did pick up 36 DraftKings points against Lillard and the Blazers last night. That was the third straight game of more than 32 DraftKings points for Mudiay. I have trouble calling him safe, because every time I do, he destroys a DFS lineup. For the price though, he looks like a strong play again.
Dark Horses:
Alec Burks ($4,700): Burks put up 26.25 DraftKings points against the Pacers in the first meeting despite going just 5-16 from the floor. If Burks’ game against his former team is any indication, he is secure in his role and should be a strong play going forward. Burks isn’t going to drop 50 for us, but 30 is very possible.
T.J. McConnell ($4,300): DraftKings has finally wised up and raised his price on us. Strangely enough, it comes immediately after McConnell’s first game under 20 DraftKings points since December 19th. He should be back to well over that mark against the atrocious Washington defense, but I am a little nervous about how the minutes will look with Butler back. McConnell should still see more run that Korkmaz, but that Furkan guy may end up messing with our DFS production yet again.
My pick: Burks(PG); Teague(PG), Burks(G)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Bradley Beal ($8,900): Beal isn’t on the same level as Harden, but the principal is the same. When Wall is out, Beal is going to get at least 40 DraftKings points. He has only missed that mark once with Wall out, and that was the first game without him. Philly shut down Beal in the first meeting, but he still only played 19 minutes in the blowout. That shouldn’t be the case tonight. It’s going to be up to Beal to keep the Wizards in this one.
Devin Booker ($8,700): Booker is in a great spot against the Kings so long as his back is okay. Back spasms are tricky though, meaning we probably wont have official word on Booker until after lock on sites that don’t have late swap. That’s the great part about DraftKings. We can keep Booker on the radar and throw him in if he plays. Still, I understand a fade here if you don’t want to mess with this situation. I really don’t want to either.
Honorable Mention:
Klay Thompson ($6,800): Thompson had a rough December, but 2019 has been a new leaf for him. Of course, it helps that Thompson has played 83 minutes in just two games since the calendar flipped. He has responded with 82.75 DraftKings points. If Thompson is getting a point per minute with that run, he will have no issue hitting value tonight as long as he keeps shooting like he is.
Lou Williams ($6,800): I always get nervous when the price on LouWill gets up into this range. It means he’s about to implode and screw us. Williams has not had a game under 28 DraftKings points since before Christmas, so he is on a nice run right now. If Lamb is out again, Charlotte’s defense takes a hit. Lamb’s status will determine just how comfortable I am with using Lou.
Bogdanovic ($5,900, $5,700): Welcome to another exciting episode of Choose That Bogdanovic! Tonight, there is no wrong choice. Use them both. If I have to choose only one, I’m going with Bogdan, but that’s only because he put up 27.5 DraftKings points in 20 minutes in the first game with Phoenix. Bojan has been slightly less explosive against Cleveland.
Dark Horses:
Gary Harris ($5,400): Harris’ production hasn’t been very consistent as he still seems to be working some of the rust off. However, this price is still very reasonable for what he is capable of. The Nuggets recently ruled out Will Barton for the rest of the week, so if Harris can take over the scoring of Barton like he did before getting hurt, this price is way too low.
Devonte Graham ($4,000): Keep an eye on the status of Lamb here. If Lamb plays, I’m off of both of these guys, but I may consider Kemba. If Lamb is out, I’m off of Kemba but on Graham. There is no way Tony Parker sets the world on fire in consecutive games.
My pick: Bogdanovic(SG, G); N/A
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Paul George ($10,300): George is the way to go if you are using Thunder players tonight. George racked up 54 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Minnesota. With Covington out of the picture for the foreseeable future, forwards are going to have their way with Minnesota the way they did earlier in the season. It starts with George.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,600): I don’t fully trust Durant at five figures in a game that could be a blowout, especially with the Knicks on the back end of a tough back to back. This game could be a blowout as well, and the Raptors haven’t been shy about resting Kawhi or limiting his minutes when he needs to. If this turns into a blowout, you are pretty much banking on Kawhi to hit value before he rests for the rest of the game.
Honorable Mention:
Jimmy Butler ($7,500): Butler is not on the injury report. The question here is what his spot on the jackass report is going to do to his value. This is a great spot against Washington, and I wouldn’t think twice if Butler hadn’t added his patented drama to the mix while he was out with an (apparently not mental) illness. Does he come back and everything’s good? If so, Butler could be cheap at this price.
Danilo Gallinari ($7,300): Gallo was cold from the floor on Sunday, which limited his value in what was a good spot. He has another great spot tonight, but we see what can happen with scoring dependence. Gallinari still had a solid all around game, but came in a ways under value with his price this high. I trust Harris more at the price than Gallinari tonight, if that sways your opinion either way.
T.J. Warren ($7,100): Warren could be in for a monster game just like Sunday if Booker has to sit this one out. Warren carried the team after Booker left, racking up 43.75 DraftKings points in that one. If Booker is in for this one, I like Warren a little less. However, this is enough of a good matchup that I would consider playing Warren anyway. Especially with the nature of Booker’s injury. If his back acts up again, Warren will be the one that takes over.
Dark Horses:
Otto Porter ($5,600): Porter’s minutes are likely going to be limited here since he has played 14, 21, and 24 minutes in the three games since his return. Despite only playing 24 minutes against the Thunder, Porter destroyed them for 42.5 DraftKings points. He can do a lot even if Porter only plays around 25-28 minutes. I like him once again at this price.
Justin Jackson ($3,800): The Kings would play five guards if teams would let them. Just when it seems like Jackson had no path to minutes, the Kings started playing him at the four. The return of Bagley muddles things a little, but Jackson has still seen a nice uptick in minutes. Enough so that he could be a pretty good value pick here against the Suns.
Norman Powell ($3,800): Powell is going to take a hit from Saturday’s production, but even before that spot start he has been hitting value. Powell has at least 20 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. The one game that he missed was against a good Milwaukee team. Atlanta is everything but. Powell is one of the guys that should get run at the end of the game as well should this turn into a blowout.
My pick: George(SF); George(SF), Porter(PF), Powell(SG)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bets:
Kevin Durant ($10,100): Durant beat up on the Knicks in the first meeting, but that was when the Warriors were missing Curry. His numbers are going to drop, but by how much? Durant is about the only Warriors player that has value no matter what. That said, I don’t know if he has 50+ DraftKings point value with the team fully healthy.
Tobias Harris ($7,600): Harris is having a career year leading the Clippers here, and he has to be licking his chops after watching the Charlotte front lately. Zeller is out, and they are reeling. Harrell and either Gortat or Boban could have bigger nights, but I still see Harris topping 40 here.
Honorable Mention:
Domantas Sabonis ($7,400): Sabonis started against a solid Raptors front with Myles Turner out and put up a strong 39.25 DraftKings points. If Turner is back in, this price is a little steep on Sabonis. We know he’s going to get good run, but I also know that this Cleveland front is pretty good with Thompson back. There is risk here if Sabonis comes off the bench.
Draymond Green ($7,200): Draymond has 77 DraftKings points over the last two games after he saw his price dip below the $6,000 mark. It shot up quick. This is another strong spot to use Draymond, especially since he usually gets run even in blowouts.
John Collins ($6,900): Collins’ price has dropped $1,300 since the calendar flipped. His production is going down, but the quality of opponent really isn’t. However, Atlanta hasn’t been involved in a close game since New Year’s Eve, and Collins’ minutes have reflected it. Whether Atlanta can stay close against Toronto will go a long ways towards determining whether Collins hits value tonight. I have no problems taking a shot with him at this price though. We know what he is capable of.
Dark Horses:
Marvin Williams ($5,300): Williams provides good across the board numbers which leaves him as one of the lesser risks among value plays. Williams is back to playing big minutes again with Zeller out, so he’ s worth a sure 30 DraftKings points. Williams should have no trouble hitting value.
Dario Saric ($3,900): With Thibs gone, I wouldn’t be a bit shocked if Saric started from day one under the new regime. Taj Gibson is a solid player, but Saric gives them what they need with Covington out since he is a similar player. Don’t be surprised to see Saric starting tonight. If he is, this is a no brainer. Even if Saric doesn’t start yet, I would be willing to bet he plays a lot more minutes than he was under Thibodeau.
Jonah Bolden ($3,700): I think it’s pretty obvious to anyone paying attention that Bolden should start over Wilson Chandler. Bolden had a strong 30.25 DraftKings points in 29 minutes with Chandler out on Saturday. If Bolden draws the start as he should, here is your chalk value of the night. He also comes with a short leash if Chandler is healthy though.
My pick: Harris(PF), Bolden(F), Saric(UTIL); N/A
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($11,000): Embiid racked up 42.75 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes in the first meeting. This game needs to be close for Embiid to come close to value, but Embiid hasn’t been under 50 DraftKings points since December 22nd. He is smashing everybody right now, and likely will the undersized Wizards as well.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,500): Towns is the Timberwolves offense right now. It’s unclear how the new coaching staff will change things. If they do insert Saric into the lineup, that could cut into Towns’ offensive production, but he has actually been putting up huge defensive numbers as well. Towns has 11 blocks over the last four games. The Thunder are good up front, but can anyone stop Towns right now?
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Honorable Mention:
Deandre Ayton ($8,100): Ayton put up 26.25 DraftKings points in just 20 minutes in the first meeting. You know that he is going to be a larger part of the game plan this time around. Vucevic did well against the Kings last night. Ayton is going to do the same. He may put up the best numbers of his career.
Thomas Bryant ($6,300): Bryant put up 24.25 DraftKings points in just 18 minutes in the first game against Philly. The difference here is that Bryant it playing pretty big minutes lately. He could have a tough time banging with Embiid for 30 minutes as opposed to 18, but Bryant is strong enough to still hit value here.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,200): Harrell has seen his minutes dip lately since the Clippers have run Gortat more. Is this an ongoing trend? It concerns me under normal circumstances, but with Harrell getting to run wild on an undersized Charlotte front, I’ll take at least one chance on him here.
Larry Nance ($5,800): Nance has destroyed Indiana this year to the tune of 92.5 DraftKings points in just 56 minutes in the first two games. Numbers like that are hard to ignore. If Turner is out, Nance could have an even larger impact on this game. Thompson was out for one of those games, but Nance did a lot more damage to the Pacers than Thompson did anyway.
Dark Horses:
Willy Hernangomez ($4,400): The Clippers are going to play smaller, so expect Willy to get the start over Biyombo. Both will play enough to be worth their price, but I much prefer Willy. He had 36.75 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes against the Suns. The offensively challenged Biyombo isn’t going to put up numbers like that.
Kevon Looney ($4,000): Looney only plays about half the game, but he is an automatic 20 DraftKings points. Only Phoenix has held Looney under that mark in the last eight games, and that had a lot to do with foul trouble. Looney is a low risk guy if you need to save some money.
Richaun Holmes ($3,500): Holmes is always a risk because he isn’t assured 20 minutes every game. However, he got good run against Sacramento in the first game, presumably because of his size. There is significant risk with Ayton playing the way he is right now though. There is a good chance that Holmes doesn’t play much, but with as weak as the Kings are up front, Holmes should hit value anyway.
My pick: Ayton(C); Towns(C), Looney(F), Hernangomez(UTIL)
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