Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Tuesday January 8

Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We get another eight game slate tonight and hopefully don’t get a lot of news like yesterday.

Hopefully last night’s slate treated you well and I want to let readers know that I’ll be doing a small adjustment moving forward. It won’t happen in the article itself, but on my Twitter feed, I’ll try to update things as we get news. For instance, the Nets sat half their team yesterday. That definitely changed the slate in a major way and should be noted. Also, I wrote Blake Griffin as a fade but when the Spurs lineup changed, my opinion changed as well. I’ll do a better job moving forward and evolving this article just like we did in MLB and NFL. Let’s dig in to tonight’s Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Russell Westbrook, Thunder 

I try to not always take the most expensive route because that wouldn’t be helpful if I did that for all five positions. Still, you need two point guards on FanDuel and I definitely think one of them should be Westbrook. I’ve been on the “Paul George is better play in DFS” train lately and this might come across as point chasing. I do expect the poor game for George to be just a blip in the radar, but it’s hard to ignore that Westbrook was excellent in this past game.

He hit a triple-double by the third quartered has that upside like he normally does tonight. The Wolves give up a low real point total but they match that with the third most assists and 11th most rebounds given up to point guards. When a team is giving up a healthy amount of peripherals to a player like Westbrook, it had better get your attention. On DraftKings, he’s less of a “needed” play but on FanDuel I love plugging in Westbrook tonight.

Honorable Mention – Jeff Teague, Wolves

Fade – DeAaron Fox, Kings 

This has potential to bite me because point guards against the Suns have typically been pretty successful this season. Fox is a young up and coming player but he’s also banged up. He actually admitted to the media that his shoulder has been hurting him but it’s not at the point he needs to sit out yet, according to him. His stats these past few games might be telling a different story.

Headed into last night’s game, he had been shooting under 40 percent and put together a string of three games that were fantasy disappointments. He’s been shooting the ball under 40 percent during that time period and the Kings are also on a back to back. Not only have they been significantly worse in those scenarios as a team, two games in that time span can’t be good for an ailing shoulder. I will likely pass on Fox tonight.

Honorable Mention – Ben Simmons, Sixers(If Jimmy Butler is active)

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Devin Booker, Suns 

*Note* If Booker gets ruled out, pivot to the Honorable Mention 

I know it’s another top end player but we’ll find some value in another spot so we can feature Booker here. He’s going to get a Sacramento team that comes in on the aforementioned back to back scenario, which means the defense is not likely to be sharp in this one. Since Phoenix is fighting for the number one pick this offseason, blowouts are always a concern with them. I think that’s mitigated tonight and that means Booker should get basically his full minutes. As long as he’s active after some back spasms this past game, he’ll be in my lineup tonight.

Since the Kings are next to last in points allowed this year, it should come as no surprise that they bleed real points to about every position on the floor. They give up the sixth most real points to shooting and point guards, leaving Booker in a great spot no matter what. He has played some point this season since the Suns still don’t have a true answer at that position. Sacramento also struggle mightily in the paint and Booker drives at the 14th highest frequency in the league so he should be able to exploit that weakness. Booker has a very realistic shot at 30+ real points in this game.

Honorable Mention – Victor Oladipo, Pacers

Fade – Lou Williams, Clippers 

Williams is such a weird case. If you just look at his usage of 32.9 percent and his 1.19 FPPM, you’d probably wonder why someone is in the fade section. It may seem even more confounding when you see the Hornets give up the fifth most DK points to shooting guards. If all these factors seem like good thing for Sweet Lou, why will I not have a whole lot of him tonight?

Simply put, the price is a little too much for me considering he only plays around 24 minutes a night. Williams is almost a carbon copy of his teammate Montrezl Harrell. When his price is on the lower end in a good spot, I’m all in. When they play well and the salary starts to reach the apex, there comes a time when you simply can’t pay that price for players that are averaging 25 minutes a game. He has to hit 40 DK points to get to 6x and the odds are long on that total given the minutes he plays.

Honorable Mention – Jimmy Butler, Sixers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Otto Porter, Wizards 

This might seem a little out of place because so far, the Sixers have been stout against small forwards so far this season. However, Porter has continued his upward trend since making it back from a knee injury and has really been thriving off the bench so far. He’s still hanging about four minutes below his season average, meaning there is potential for even more.

With John Wall out, someone has to pick up the reigns as a secondary scorer and Porter really fits the bill. With him coming off the bench, there’s actually a few minutes a game where he’d see the floor without Beal and be the primary scoring threat. It’s only been a 127 minute sample size this season, but with both Wall and Markieff Morris off the floor, Porter is averaging a 28.5 percent usage and 1.30 FPPM. That’s a great bargain on both sites tonight.

Honorable Mention – T.J. Warren, Suns

Fade – Kawhi Leonard, Raptors 

I’m not really scared that Leonard will sit or was that banged up to start with. Maybe since it’s the Hawks, the Raptors hold him out but regardless of their plan, I’m not playing Leonard. I’d be pretty surprised if this stayed a game for all that long. Yes, we’ve seen a player like Giannis Antetokounmpo put up a giant stat line in under 20 minutes against this terrible team.

Leonard is not the same type of player and I can’t see why I would pay up for Leonard in a decent spot, let alone one where he could easily see under 30 minutes. If paying into the five digits at small forward on this slate on FD, just play George against the Wolves. George is a good bit more expensive on DK, but there’s still no reason to pay near $10,000 on that site for Kawhi.

Honorable Mention – Kevin Durant, Warriors(also blowout related)

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Serge Ibaka, Raptors 

Tonight makes for an interesting spot for the veteran forward from the Raptors. We typically target interior players when the get the Hawks but Atlanta has been climbing the leader board with rebounds given up in the paint. They’re almost up to average in that category but still rank in the bottom five in points given up in the painted area. Ibaka has just about six paint touches a contest and is shooting at a 70 percent clip for that space.

The other portion that leads me to Ibaka is the Hawks have all three of their big men healthy. John Collins, Alex Len and Dewayne Dedmond will all see at least 20 minutes if not more given recent trends. With the Raptors still down Jonas Valaciunas, Ibaka is gong to be need to try to fend off those three down low as much as possible. Ibaka was getting solid minutes regardless but this matchup means he’ll be on the floor as much as he can. Ibaka has been inconsistent since returning from injury but he should work out nicely tonight.

Honorable Mention – Thad Young, Pacers

Fade – None 

It’s pretty difficult to find a power forward on FD that would not be talked into on this slate. I suppose I’m not likely to spend on John Collins, but it’s hard to say he’s really a fade. Tobias Harris and Harrell are both up there, but they are in good spots and it would be a very likely outcome that they have solid games. Pascal Siakam and Draymond Green both could be off the floor by the fourth quarter but can pay off their salary in three without much of an issue. Even Domantas Sabonis has upside and potentially turns into chalk if Myles Turner gets ruled out.

I think the best idea on FD is to build most of your lineup first and see what you have left for the power forward position. I could be more about what fits within the rest of the lineup as a building block position tonight.  If you find nice combos in other spots, the power forward could wind up building itself. That’s especially true when there’s no stud to anchor the position.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Deandre Ayton, Suns 

I still have nightmares about the last time I wrote up Ayton. He was abjectly terrible and didn’t even break 15 fantasy points on either site. There’s going to be misses on each side of the ledger most nights, but that remains one of my worst calls on the season based off the actual production. Tonight is the night going back to Ayton redeems that call because he can’t get a much better spot than he draws tonight.

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I think Joel Embiid will draw most of the attention at center, and that’s more than fair. Washington has struggled against centers all year and we all know what Embiid is capable of. However, Embiid is bordering on $3-$4,000 more in salary depending on what site you go to. Ayton is sixth in paint touches while the Kings are bottom 10 in both paint points and paint rebounds given up. Don’t let the last time with Ayton change your mind and miss out on this matchup. The Kings are far worse on back to back and I expect Ayton to get his.

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Sixers on the high end and WIlly Hernangomez, Hornets on the low end

Fade – Thomas Bryant, Wizards 

This matchup could go very poorly for Bryant and his price is still raised up given his recent string of great games. He hasn’t had the easiest spots these past two games and his minutes have dipped under 25 in both. With his price tag over $6,000 on both sites, there’s no way you can pay that and it will be difficult for Bryant to stay out of foul trouble tonight against Embiid.

The Sixers center is second in the NBA in free throw attempts, sitting only behind James Harden. With Embiid making part of his living on the free throw line, Bryant is going to be a high risk player tonight. The other factor against Bryant is how many players around him are close in price and make for much better plays. Bryant feels like a very unnecessary risk on this slate.

Honorable Mention – WIllie Cauley-Stein, Kings

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