DraftKings NBA Picks January 9: Don’t trim the Beard from your lineup!

WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 26: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets puts up a shot in front of John Wall #2 and Otto Porter Jr. #22 of the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on November 26, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - NOVEMBER 26: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets puts up a shot in front of John Wall #2 and Otto Porter Jr. #22 of the Washington Wizards in the first half at Capital One Arena on November 26, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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DraftKings NBA
LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 05: Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Minnesota Timberwolves fouls Montrezl Harrell #5 of the LA Clippers as he shoots during a 120-109 Clipper win at Staples Center on November 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 9: Don’t trim the Beard from your lineup!

We have our largest slate of the week with ten games in our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight. Five more players have five figure salaries, but three of those are over $11,000. It’s going to be tough to fit someone with Harden. He keeps hitting value. You kind of have to play the Beard right now.

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The money line was down a ways to 263.75 thanks to tons of failed value. I had most of it. I max entried the $1 tournament. My best lineup was just 288.5, and that had single digits from Monte Morris in it. PG was a dud. So was Embiid. So was Tobias.

The winning lineup was a huge 370.5 DraftKings points ChrisGould had 11.25 DraftKings points more than second place! He got huge value out of Harrell and Andrew Wiggins while building around Klay and Kawhi. The great value picks of Melton and Jordan Clarkson helped him survive a meh game from J-Rich.

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DraftKings NBA
SALT LAKE CITY, UT – DECEMBER 25: Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers brings the ball up the court during their game against the Utah Jazz at the Vivint Smart Home Arena on December 25, 2018 in Salt Lake City , Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($8,800): The Bulls are not good against point guards. Come to think of it, they aren’t really good anywhere. Why am I telling you this? Because there is potential for a blowout here. With so many teams in action, you’re going to need close to 6x value from everyone to cash. You may get it from Lillard if this game stays close. The chances of that aren’t great though.

Jrue Holiday ($7,700): Holiday put up a solid 40.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Cleveland. This is about what you can expect with him not handling the point full time. Holiday may be even more consistent since he isn’t handling the point. How? Well, his price is down to the point where he hits about 5x value every time out. I would even consider him in cash games now.

Honorable Mention:

Lonzo Ball ($6,800): I don’t like playing Ball since he is so inconsistent, but Jackson can’t guard anyone. This is a nice spot for Ball if you can stomach it. I do have questions about what the rest of his teammates can do against the mostly solid Pistons, and since a lot of Ball’s value is on assists, this may not be the huge spot we hope for.

Kris Dunn ($6,700): The difference between Dunn and Lillard is that Dunn is probably still going to play 35 minutes in this game regardless of what the score is. Dunn has put up consistently solid lines since his return. The minutes restriction that he had early on is gone. This isn’t a huge spot against Lillard ant Portland, but I could see Dunn having a solid game anyway. 6x value is not out of the question.

Trae Young ($6,200): I usually stay off of Young, but this may be a spot to use him. He put up 33 DraftKings points in the first game against the Nets. Young wont play huge minutes with Lin getting good run off the bench, but this is one instance where Young’s fearlessness could work in his favor. If Young’s shot is falling, he is in for a huge game here.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Clarkson ($5,200): Clarkson is on some kind of tear right now. He has 72 DraftKings points over the last two games. 37 of them came four days ago against this same New Orleans team. he is shooting a lot of shots and making over half of them. Ride Clarkson until he cools off.

Derrick White ($4,900): White put up 27.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes against Memphis just four days ago. That was the lowest number of minutes that White has played since December 21st. That was also the last time White was under 25 DraftKings points. His price hasn’t increased supposedly because most of us aren’t using him. I’m fine with that. He’s still helping my team at a low price.

De’Anthony Melton ($4,300): Melton is only in play if Devin Booker is out again. So long as Booker is the primary ballhandler while he is on the court, Melton doesn’t have nearly enough upside to use alongside Booker. If Booker plays, this is an easy pivot to Raul Neto, who is the same price and will start for Ricky Rubio with Dante Exum also out.

My pick: Clarkson(PG), White(G); Clarkson(PG)

DraftKings NBA
WASHINGTON, DC – DECEMBER 28: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on during the closing seconds of the Wizards 101-92 loss to the Chicago Bulls at Capital One Arena on December 28, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,200): More and more people keep fading the Beard. His ownership was actually down below 30% in the big slam on Monday, and it promises to be even lower tonight. It shouldn’t be. Just because Harden isn’t dropping 80 doesn’t mean he isn’t hitting value. He is. Over and over. If Harden hadn’t started slowly in each of the last two games he probably would have hit 80! Fade Harden if you want. I wont. He’s automatic with Paul out.

Bradley Beal ($8,900): Beal racked up 40.25 DraftKings points in only 31 minutes last night. He did all he could to keep the Wizards close. Beal may wind up doing his best again, and it may not be good enough again. We are hoping that Beal does it over more minutes tonight.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($7,600): Russell against the Celtics was a bad idea from the get go. This should help him get his confidence back. Russell destroyed the Nets for 56.5 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in the first meeting with Atlanta. The Hawks worst defensive spot is the shooting guard. Russell is in line for another huge game.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,300): Mitchell is hot and cold and rarely in between. So why is he on here, particularly against a solid Orlando perimeter defense? Mitchell is going to have to be the primary ball handler with Rubio down for a couple of weeks and Exum out as well. For the next couple of weeks, Mitchell could be a strong play since his floor will be higher.

Zach LaVine ($6,600): McCollum is not a great defender, which could be a really good thing for LaVine. Gone are his huge game from earlier in the season. He’s not going to to that with Dunn back. LaVine is still the elite scorer on this team though. Like Dunn, LaVine is going to play 35 minutes regardless of the score. A blowout may actually help the Bulls’ value in this one.

Dark Horses:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,400): Brogdon has dropped back to back 30’s against the good defenses of Utah and Toronto. I don’t think the defense of Harden and Gerald Green scare him. That red number beside his name could chase some off of Brogdon, but it shouldn’t. Expect another solid game from Brodgon. That’s just what he does.

Alec Burks ($5,000): Burks was huge against the Pacers last night, so Clarkson’s recent run hasn’t hurt Burks much. There could be more shots to go around if Larry Nance is forced to miss time after departing in the first quarter last night. The Cavs are leaning heavily on the guards right now. Us DFS players can capitalize on that.

Shabazz Napier ($4,000): Napier probably wont start tonight, but he was playing good minutes anyway. He put up 29.75 DraftKings points against the Bulls off the bench over the weekend. There is good upside for Napier so long as Dinwiddie continues to struggle the way he has. I’m very tempted to stack the entire Nets backcourt against Atlanta.

My pick: Harden(SG); Harden(SG), Burks(G), Napier(UTIL)

DraftKings NBA
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 07: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers goes up to dunk the ball against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on November 7, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100): On paper, this isn’t a great matchup, but how can it not be? This game is going to be a track meet against Houston, and The Bucks are going to have to score a lot of points to try and keep up. Milwaukee has a lot of weapons, so Giannis could struggle and they could still keep up. I would say the chances of that are pretty slim though.

Ben Simmons ($9,100): Simmons came up short of value last night in the blowout of the Wizards, but not by much. Simmons still put up 41.75 DraftKings points in only 28 minutes. What are the chances that the Sixers blow out Washington again in D.C.? Not as good. Simmons and Embiid could both be in play again.

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($7,100): Warren is still the primary scorer on the first unit with Booker out. This is another play that hinges on the status of Booker. Like I said yesterday though, back spasms are tricky, and even if Booker is cleared to play, he may last four minutes or he may last forty. We really don’t know. Against Dallas, Warren is purely a speculative play since he likely wont have that great of a game against this defense with Booker in there. You have to keep your ear to the ground if you plan on using Warren tonight.

Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,800): We only have one Bogdanovic on the slate tonight, but we may want him anyway. Bojan has only been under 5x value once in the last nine games at tonight’s price. This is a tough matchup against Boston, but Bojan racked up 27.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting in just 23 minutes. Bogdanovic hasn’t played that few minutes in the last six weeks.

Joe Ingles ($5,500): There’s going to be some shots up for grabs with Rubio out. Mitchell will take a lot of them, but some will trickle down in Ingles. Remember what happened when Utah gutted their guard corps and sent them to Cleveland last year? Ingles’ shots and production went way up. This could be a nice spot for Ingles considering he put up 29.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Orlando.

Dark Horses:

Josh Jackson ($5,200): Whenever Jackson draws the start, he’s worth playing. Jackson has at least 30 DraftKings points in the last three games he has started. Watch the lineups. If Booker is out, Jackson will start again, and likely far exceed value again.

Reggie Bullock ($4,200): Can Bullock turn one of his patented hot starts to the game into something beyond the first quarter? Bullock has had double digit DraftKings points in the first quarter in each of the last two games. He has ended up with 49.25 combined. Bullock is still hitting value though, so he remains one of my go to value picks.

Kelly Oubre ($3,800): Oubre exploded for 46.75 DraftKings points last night with Booker out. The Suns finally game him run, and Oubre responded with arguably the best game of his career. Oubre may even be in play if Booker is out. He’s fighting for minutes with Warren and Josh Jackson, but this kind of performance should give him at least a short term boost in minutes. If Booker plays,ou can easily swap to Furkan Korkmaz, who is a great play as well if Redick is out again. If Redick and Booker both play, you can easily move to the solid but unspectacular Gerald Green while he is still starting.

My pick: Bullock(SF); Gerald Green(SF)

DraftKings NBA
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 07: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dunks the ball against the Memphis Grizzlies at Smoothie King Center on January 07, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,500): I would lose all credibility, and I would deserve it, if I didn’t at least mention Davis. Davis torched Cleveland four days ago for 50 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in a blowout win. That’s the risk here as well. A blowout. Thompson couldn’t handle him, and if the game had stayed close, Davis would have easily topped 60 again.  There is no spread on this game yet, but it’s going to be double digits. How soon until it gets out of hand though?

John Collins ($7,200): The Hawks took Toronto down to the wire last night, so Collins was a big time value play. He racked up 44.5 DraftKings points at just $6,900. This is a big smash spot for Collins again, and I love him at this price. Brooklyn is really week up front right now with RHJ still out and Carroll possibly limited or out again. I expect another big game from Collins tonight, and he is still pretty cheap.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($7,100): Sabonis had a very nice game with Turner out last night. Right now it looks at though Turner will be out again, so I’ll ride Sabonis. Sabonis put up 30.25 DraftKings points in 27 minutes in the first meeting against Boston. He should at least be able to hit that mark tonight.

Lauri Markkanen ($6,300): Portland is a lot better against power forwards than small forwards, but there is still very good upside for Markkanen here. I could see a fade for Portis in theory because this game looks like it could get out of hand. As it stands now, the Blazers are a 9.5 point favorite. Still, this is a good price on Markkanen. There is enough upside to consider this.

Derrick Favors ($5,600): Favors has at least 24 DraftKings points in six straight games. Five of those were over 30. This is another good spot for Favors. Orlando even got pushed around by the lowly Kings the other night. Favors has limited upside off the bench, but he is still playing minutes in the high 20’s. 6x value is very possible.

Dark Horses:

DeMarre Carroll ($5,500): I will admit that I will be kind of disappointed if Carroll plays. It will take away the value of Kurucs and Faried. The Nets should be playing Faried anyway, but they are just doing their best Knicks impression. If Carroll plays like he has said he will, he’s the one that gets this nice matchup. If Carroll sits, fire up Kurucks again and you can consider Faried, but there is no guarantee the Nets use him.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,400): This is a smash spot for Aminu here. The Bulls aren’t particularly strong up front, and Aminu is a master at stuffing the stat sheet. He has only missed value once in the last nine games. This doesn’t look like a place where Aminu will be denied either.

Jake Layman ($3,700): If you feel comfortable with using a guy looking for a blowout, this could be the spot for you. Layman usually doesn’t see a ton of minutes, but he smashed the Knicks for 31.75 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes on Monday. I would consider using Layman regardless, though Portland may have to go a little smaller against Markkanen.

My pick: Collins(PF), Aminu(F); Favors(UTIL); Carroll(F)

DraftKings NBA
PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 20: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers shoots over Nikola Vucevic #9 of the Orlando Magic at Wells Fargo Center on October 20, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,800): Embiid crushed on a per minute basis last night, putting up 41.5 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes. Well, the Wizards aren’t going to get better overnight. Did sleeping in their own beds help? That’s the only narrative to play here. The Sixers dominated the game even without Redick’s sharpshooting. I just don’t know that Washington can keep this close, but if you think they can, this is a monster spot for Embiid.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,200): Vuce smashed Gobert in the first meeting, racking up 51.25 DraftKings points on him. It’s likely to happen again since Utah is going to shut down most of the rest of this offense. This has the lowest total on the slate right now, and that likely wont change. I would limit my exposure to this game, but Vucevic is the one guy I would play.

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Honorable Mention:

Andre Drummond ($8,600): This is a huge spot for Drummond since even when the Lakers are healthy, they are pretty small up front. It’s going to be raining rebounds from the bricklayers on both sides, and Drummond is far larger than anyone else on the court. We could see another 20/20 night for Drummond here.

Jusuf Nurkic ($8,200): Nurkic could crush this spot too. The Bulls have been thin in the middle for a while now. Nurkic put up 28.5 DraftKings points in just 19 foul plagued minutes against the Knicks. That broke his streak of three straight 40+ DraftKings points games and five of six.

Julius Randle ($8,100): Randle was the one that tore up the Cavs. He actually outscored his high priced teammate racking up 52 DraftKings points at a much lower price. Randle played more minutes too, punching the clock at 33. Randle is the safer version of Davis since it only takes him 40.5 DraftKings points for 5x value. I can see Randle hitting that mark tonight.

Dark Horses:

DeAndre Jordan ($6,900): Jordan has 68.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Suns this year. The Suns aren’t very good defensively in the middle, but Jordan isn’t much of an offensive threat anyway. That will limit his upside, but an elite rebounder against a team that misses as much as the Suns do still has enough upside to use.

Jarrett Allen ($5,800): Allen has a pretty good matchup here, but there is no guarantee that he’s going to do anything with it. Honestly, with Dedmon cheaper anyway, I doubt anyone will be on Allen. Therein lies the upside to playing him.

Dewayne Dedmon ($5,200): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS. And damn he’s cheap!

My pick: Dedmon(C); Drummond(C), Dedmon(PF)

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