Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Wednesday January 9

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have a larger 10 game slate on hand tonight so let’s get right into it!

Tonight’s slate looks fairly challenging at the first glance and before we get our typical news from the NBA. Right now, there isn’t a ton of value to be had with two super studs in the same game. I will not be fading James Harden tonight against a team that faces the most three pointers per game in the NBA, and I would love to pair him with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those two players are my top expensive targets, so we’ll focus on other ends of the spectrum. While the complexion of the slate will likely change, we’ll give you a really good foundation in trying to establish who you should be looking at early. Let’s go to work on tonight’s Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Shabazz Napier, Nets 

Since I would love to(reasonably) stack Giannis and Harden together, one of my top plays is a value play that might well go overlooked if the Nets get healthy. Napier might seem like I’m just box score chasing from the other night, but if we look at the past few games, he’s really started to bite into the minutes of Spencer Dinwiddie.

Napier has played at least 23 minutes in five straight games as he’s worked his way into the Nets rotation and has been at 20+ DK points in four of those five games. Even if he’s on the low end of his numbers, a matchup against Atlanta on a back to back situation should be more than enough to hit 22-24 DK points at just $4,000. Even on FanDuel, he’s under $5,000 and has the possibility of being a drop on that site if things go poorly. Seeing how the Hawks give up the second most DK points to point guards, it’s hard to see Napier being a total bust here.

Honorable Mention – Raul Neto, Jazz if he starts for Ricky Rubio

Fade – Top Shelf Options

Ok, so obviously that’s a little broad. DK offers a little flexibility but I really think that on FD, it makes a lot of sense to drop back and go cheap at the point guard spot. None of the players over $8,000 on that site are really in great spots. Unless someone for the Sixers rests, Ben Simmons is a bit too expensive for my blood. Damian Lillard is in a great spot but has really been underwhelming and that game could blowout pretty easily.

Kyrie Irving is fine, but it should be noted that Indiana is the best scoring defense in basketball. Finally, Mike Conley against the Spurs doesn’t scream out as a strong play. These four have potential any time they take the court, but with other players in their price range in better spots, I find myself very unlikely to pay up at point guard tonight, regardless of site.

Honorable Mention – None

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Donovan Mitchell, Jazz 

I can’t say that Mitchell has been a favorite of mine very often this season as his sophomore campaign has been a little bumpy. The few times I have liked him, I’ve gotten mixed results. Tonight I feel like it’s almost by default to want to play him because of the injury situation in Utah. Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum and Thabo Sefolosha are all out for this game and when they’re off the court this season, Mitchell is seeing a 42.1 percent usage rate. For reference, James Harden sees a 45.1 percent usage with Chris Paul off the floor this year.

I’m not trying to say Mitchell is going to morph into a dominant fantasy player tonight. Far from it, because he’s only matched that usage with a 1.06 FPPM so far, which is a little underwhelming. Still, when someone has that kind of role in an offense and is under $8,000 on both sites, we have to take advantage of it. He also gets a fairly strong matchup, as the Magic have given up the ninth most DK points to the position and the 12th most real points. I expect Mitchell to get plenty of attention through the day and it has a lot of merit behind it.

Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton, Bucks

Fade – DeMar DeRozan, Spurs 

If we look just at the game logs, this fade probably makes sense on the surface alone. The Spurs just played the Grizzlies and DeRozan really struggled, failing to break 30 fantasy points on either site. That’s just the way things go sometimes and players have bad games, but the Grizzlies represent what is quietly kind of a difficult matchup for DeRozan for one very specific reason – the mid-range shooting game.

Right around 47 percent of the field goal attempts from DeRozan come from 10-14 feet and 15-19 feet. The Grizzlies rank 12th best in the first range and second best in the second range as far as field goal percentage allowed. When a team defends that area of the floor so well and you add it to the fact DeRozan is on the road and in a pace-down spot, it’s hard to play him with confidence tonight. Even if DeRozan tries to drive to the hoop, Memphis is fifth best in the five feet or less range. There’s better ways to spend that salary tonight.

Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal, Wizards just due to price

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – DeMarre Carroll, Nets

*Note – If Carroll is ruled out, just pivot to his team-mate Rodions Kurucs 

In what has to be a first for the Top Plays and Fades article, we find ourselves discussing two Nets players! Try to contain your excitement on that side of the screen, but using two cheap Nets really isn’t the worst idea tonight because the Atlanta defense lets everyone rack up the fantasy points. Before missing one game with an injury, Carroll was consistently seeing 30 minutes a night and producing at a steady clip.

With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson remaining out of the lineup, Carroll should still be in line for his normal workload as he just missed one game. The Hawks are currently giving up the seventh most DK points to small forward and there’s not much of a reason to think Carroll can’t continue to be a worthwhile addition to a fantasy lineup tonight. We’ve used far worse players against the Hawks at different points of this year.

Honorable Mention – DeAndre’ Bembry, Hawks

Fade – Trevor Ariza, Wizards 

After only playing 27 minutes last night, I’m not particularly concerned about the minutes for Ariza. It’s more about the fact that his scoring has been very streaky lately and he’s still priced like he’s a sure thing, especially on FD where he exceeds $6,000. Even though the small forward position is a little bit sketchy tonight past Giannis, it’s still hard to see why we should pay so much for Ariza.

Unlike the power forward position, the Sixers actually defend the small forward position well. They give up just the third fewest Dk and real life points, seemingly capping Ariza. Adding to the concern is that Ariza is been in single digits in scoring in three of his past five games. He’s not a high usage player regardless, so at his price tag it’s totally unnecessary to go there tonight.

Honorable Mention – Joe Ingles, Jazz

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Blake Griffin, Pistons 

Make no mistake, I will have a lineup that has both Andre Drummond(who is likely very chalky for a 10 game slate) and Griffin in Los Angeles tonight. Not only has Griffin been on a tear lately, he gets a Lakers squad that still doesn’t have LeBron James back in the fold and has nobody that should be able to hang with Griffin in this one.

Griffin is still leading the league in touches and against a Laker defense that is 18th in the league in points given up, I want a piece of that. The Lakers also play at a really quick pace and even though it’s not the Clippers, I have to imagine being back in Los Angeles means something a little extra for Griffin. He should be up for this one and it feels like a 50 spot is imminent.

Honorable Mention – John Collins, Hawks

Fade – Anthony Davis, Pelicans 

I haven’t lost my mind because it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Davis scores at least 55 fantasy points in this one. My fear is almost entirely blowout related because if the Pelicans smoke the Cavs like they should, Davis is likely to see a cap of 30 minutes. He is neck and neck with James Harden for the league lead and if Alvin Gentry can take a window to sit Davis for a few extra minutes, he’ll take it here.

Since we just saw this matchup, we know that Davis only played 29 minutes the first time around as the Pelicans routed the Cavs by 30+ points. With the game being in New Orleans, that seems like a very realistic outcome yet again and I don’t like paying top dollar for a player that sits the fourth quarter(cough, Joel Embiid, cough). If you want to take advantage of the spot, I would advise you save a ton of salary and play Julius Randle instead.

Honorable Mention – LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Clint Capela, Rockets 

On paper, this might not look like the greatest matchup for Capela. The Bucks give up the 11th fewest DK points to centers and the fewest rebounds by a large margin. While the rebounding number is a concern, the Bucks do give up the fourth most real points to centers and the 11th most paint points in basketball. If there’s one thing that Caplea does, it’s hang out in the paint.

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Capela leads the league in paint touches, is second in paint field goal attempts(the first player is the Honorable Mention) and leads in paint points by almost 1.5 points per game. As my podcast partner Adam Pfeifer pointed out, Brook Lopez might have some issues dealing with the pick and roll since Harden and Capela are so good at that facet of the game and our buddy BroLo isn’t the most nimble player. I think Capela finds his way to 10 rebounds and has 30 real point upside here. The Honorable Mention will be much more popular in cash, but Capela could be a real edge on this slate.

Honorable Mention – Andre Drummond, Pistons

Fade – Nikola Vucevic, Magic 

I loved Vucevic the other night against the Kings and I really wish Orlando had been able to keep that game close. Vucevic was destroying in that game but just simply didn’t get full run. As much as I loved him there, I can’t get on board at his price point here. He’s a very low-owned GPP option but Orlando is on their third game in four nights and in Utah. That is a rough combination and there’s a facet of Vucevic’s game that doesn’t mesh well against Rudy Gobert.

Vucevic posts up frequently, as in the eighth most times per game in the league. That has remained a strength for Gobert and I usually like to pick on him with pick and roll players. Seeing as how Vucevic doesn’t utilize that as much, it’s hard to pay up for him when Drummond, Capela, Jusuf Nurkic and even DeWayne Dedmond can be had for cheaper prices. He did get Gobert for 50 points earlier this season, but I’m not banking on 19 rebounds happening again tonight.

Honorable Mention – Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

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