DraftKings EuroLeague Basketball Picks January 10
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings EuroLeague Basketball Picks January 9
DraftKings EuroLeague has a pretty different split in a two round week. There are only three games today with five capping off the EuroLeague week on Friday. We have interesting narratives today with Jeremy Pargo returning to Moscow and Podgorica and Darussafaka meeting in a rematch of the EuroCup finals from last year. We also have the matchup that started the EuroLeague: Real Madrid vs. Olympiacos.
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The rotations can be frustrating sometimes as more players see the court than in your average NBA game. The games themselves are also shorter, playing four ten minute quarters as opposed to 12 minutes in the NBA. The court is smaller, the lane is bigger, and the three point line is closer, but the action is still what you would expect from world class basketball!
For DraftKings EuroLeague, we can’t expect 5x value like in the NBA. Most winning lineups are around 180-200 DraftKings points, which is around 3.5 – 4x value.
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Guards:
Vasilije Micic has another good matchup. He was a disaster against Zalgiris on Tuesday, which is going to knock ownership down. I understand a fade here, but Facundo Campazzo really wasn’t any better. This looks like a day to pay down at guard if you aren’t willing to fly with Micic again.
Khimki has realized that they can’t replace Shved with one person. Dee Bost and Stefan Markovic have picked up most of the slack, with Markovic being the more consistent of the two. Curtis Jenkins and Garlon Green have double digit DraftKings points in all but one game with Shved out. There is something at every tier. Khimki has a tougher matchup, but on a shorter slate, it seems dangerous to ignore this completely.
Sergio Llull may finally be rounding back into form. He has at least 26 DraftKings points in three of the last four rounds. Hop on! But wait…..the one in which he missed that mark, Llull had just 3.75 DraftKings points. I hesitate to call Llull safe, but the upside appears to be there at the cost to Campazzo’s production.
Rodrigue Beaubois played just 15 minutes returning from an ankle injury on Tuesday, but he racked up 23 DraftKings points in that time. Krunoslav Simon also hit 20 in that game. I guess the question is whether we think Micic will struggle again. The three guards have not all had a good game at once, so this whole situation is pretty risky. Simon has actually been the most consistent lately, but just three weeks ago he was the all or nothing guy.
The whole Fenerbahce backcourt has a great matchup tonight, and Kostas Sloukas needs it. He has only been above 18 DraftKings points once in the last four rounds. Sloukas was in the starting lineup for the first time in that stretch on Tuesday, and he has his worst game. Marko Guduric is the one to target here. If you are looking for value in this matchup, Melih Mahmutoglu could be the place to look. He exploded for 26.5 DraftKings points on Tuesday, which is more than he had in the previous five games combined, one of which was a DNP. You would think Mahmutoglu would get a little more run this round to see if he can stay hot.
With Leo Westermann out, expect larger roles for Marius Grigonis and Derrick Walton. Nate Wolters could see a bump in production too, but I’m not sure this is a spot I want to attack with so many other options out there. You wouldn’t think that would be the case on a three game slate, but we have a really strong middle tier of guards today.
If you are really desperate, you could try Klemen Prepelic with Jaycee Carroll out for Real Madrid. I think the more likely scenario is that Real Madrid runs with four forwards at times, but Prepelic should at least see a few more minutes than normal.
Forwards:
Jan Vesely has a solid matchup, and has been playing lights out lately. Vesely has at least 22 DraftKings points in eight straight rounds, and has even cleared 40 once during that stretch. He put up 25.5 in the first meeting with Zalgiris, so Vesely should be worth the money here. You could run it back with Brandon Davies, but this is a tougher matchup for Davies and he was shut down on Tuesday.
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Adrien Moerman is in another smash spot. He was on Tuesday and put up 34 DraftKings points, the most Moerman has had in a month.
Do you go with the consistency of Printezis or the upside of Jordan Mickey? Mickey has played very well since Rubio went down, but the matchup really hasn’t mattered much. His ceiling is still mid 20’s most of the time. I think I would rather ride the matcup and pair Bryant Dunston with Moerman.
The Real Madrid front is going to get pretty good run with the injuries in the frontcourt. I would trust Rudy Fernandez more than anyone else because he can also run as an extra guard.
Anthony Gill was out for a month, and no one ever said what was wrong with him. Whatever it was, it’s over now. Gill put up 30.75 DraftKings points in his return and has another great matchup with Efes on tap. Tony Crocker makes a nice value play as well. If you need to go even cheaper, Andrey Zubkov has been solid lately, but his points have dropped slightly every round for the last month.
I was on the Fenerbahce front on Tuesday, and they all underachieved with the exception of Nicolo Melli. He is the only one that I would play right now.
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