DraftKings NBA Picks January 10: Westbrook or Jokic?

DENVER, CO – DECEMBER 10: Marc Gasol #33 of the Memphis Grizzlies plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on December 10, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) DraftKings NBA /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 10: Westbrook or Jokic?

This is out lightest DraftKings NBA slate of the week with just four games on tap. Detroit, San Antonio, and Boston are playing back to backs. Only two players top five figures, but a few others are close. Are any of them worth the price? Who can we build around? It’s going to be tougher after last night’s craziness.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,300): The Spurs are a tough matchup, but Westbrook has averaged 51 DraftKings points per game against the Spurs in 36 meetings. This will be the Thunder’s first crack at the Spurs this season. I don’t know that Russ hits 5x value here, but he is the most likely to break 50 tonight considering he has averaged that against the Spurs and hasn’t been below that mark since December 30th. Expect the normal strong line from Westbrook, but I doubt he breaks 60 for you either.

Kyrie Irving ($9,000): Irving looked good in his return, knocking down 8 of 16 shots and picking up 35 DraftKings points in 28 minutes. That’s all he needed to play in the blowout of the Nets. Miami promises to be more of a challenge, but with Dragic still out, this is a place where Kyrie could have a nice game. It’s hard to fade the sure 50 of Westbrook, especially when nothing on Kyrie is a given. However, before he went down against the Spurs, Irving had a string of three straight games over 50 DraftKings points.

Honorable Mention:

De’Aaron Fox ($7,600): Fox topped 40 DraftKings points against the Suns on Tuesday, and is a strong bet to do so against the Pistons as well. The Suns will try and speed this up behind Fox, and I doubt Jackson can slow him down much. 5x value is pretty much the floor for Fox tonight. He may be my favorite cash game play at the point, and has ample upside for GPP usage as well.

Jamal Murray ($7,300): With Barton still out and Harris likely out again, this looks like a great spot for Murray. Of course, it did the first two times he faced the Clippers this year as well. Murray has just 46.5 DraftKings points combined in those two games. Harris only played one of those. The issue is that Murray is a dreadful 9-28(32.1%) from the floor in those games and only went to the line five times. Find the extra $300 for Fox.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Jackson ($5,000): Jackson had a strong game when the rest of the team struggled last night, and he has a great chance to do it again. The Kings aren’t a good team, but they do like to prove to everyone just how young they are by running up and down the court. There isn’t a lot of defense in games like this. The Pistons are going to be a popular stack. The best part of it is Jackson is cheap enough to use in it.

Patty Mills ($3,500): You can play roulette with several guys in this tier, including starter Derrick White. Why would you do that when Mills has three straight games of 7.5x value? Mills doesn’t start, isn’t a sexy name, and has a low ceiling. But I’ll take that strong of value no matter who it comes from.

My pick: Westbrook(PG), Mills(G); Fox(PG), Jackson(SG), Mills(G)

ORLANDO, FLORIDA – DECEMBER 19: DeMar DeRozan #10 of the San Antonio Spurs attempts a shot during the game against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center on December 19, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): The logic here is simple. Just don’t play DeRozan against Memphis. They held him to 50 DraftKings points in two games over the last four days. Also in that span, DeRozan torched Detroit, Toronto, and the Clippers while putting up a respectable line against Boston. I’m just thanking Memphis for making him look terrible and dropping his price. De Rozan wont go for 60 here, but mid 40’s should happen without an issue.

Lou Williams ($6,900): Williams has had at least 28 DraftKings points in each of the last eight games. Six of those have been over 30. LouWill even hit 50 against the Hornets! Now the bad news: he has struggled against Denver this year. Williams has just 37.25 DraftKings points in 41 minutes over two games. The good news is that Williams is playing a lot more minutes than that lately. There is decent upside for the price, especially on a short slate.

Honorable Mention:

Buddy Hield ($6,700): Hield has been a disaster in the last two games, and his price has barely dropped. For that reason, I want to leave him alone. I want to just turn around and walk away from this. The problem is that this is a good matchup, and we have seen what Heild’s ceiling is. Hield is the kind of guy that can help you take down a GPP or land you at the bottom. Are you willing to take the leap?

Gary Harris ($5,600): If Harris plays, we at least have to consider him in this matchup. In the game that Harris played against the Clippers this year, he put up 26.75 DraftKings points in that one. If he is healthy enough to play close to a normal compliment of minutes, Harris is worth the risk at this price.

Dark Horses:

Dwyane Wade ($5,100): The Heat are giving Wade run, and it’s not just charity for someone who has done so much for the franchise. Wade has only been under 23 DraftKings points twice in the last 11 games. Wade has little upside, but this kind of floor is hard to come by. Wade is a cash game staple, but he can be used in GPP formats tonight as well.

Marcus Smart ($4,700): Smart is mostly known for his defensive chops, but he has racked up more than 30 DraftKings points in the last couple of games. Smart is performing at the top end of his spectrum right now, but it’s also around 7x value. We can’t complain about that. You could chase the massive upside and the devastating floor of Jaylen Brown, or go for the solid Smart pick.

My pick: DeRozan(SG); N/A

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 02: Paul George #13 of the Oklahoma City Thunder celebrates his alley oop dunk during a 107-100 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on January 02, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Paul George ($9,800): George’s price is still very high even though his numbers have been down a little the last couple of games. Playing the Spurs, I’m more inclined to put my trust in Westbrook tonight. George is mostly a contrarian play since it would be a bit misguided to expect him to go for 50 tonight. The Spurs are going to ugly this game up.

Danilo Gallinari ($7,100): Here we have Gallinari returning to Denver, a place where he enjoyed some great success. Is there a revenge narrative here? Maybe. There doesn’t seem to be vitriol between the two sides, but that doesn’t mean Gallinari doesn’t want to put on a show for his former fans.

Honorable Mention:

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,200): Even Bogie had a poor game against the Suns. He has been the consistent piece whereas Hield could blow the roof off the value arena. This is also a good matchup for Bogdanovic. To me, this seems like a guard stack for the Kings with Fox and a game stack with the Detroit front, or a place to just leave the whole thing alone. You are going to soar to the top or go down with this one.

Justise Winslow ($5,900): Winslow isn’t going to put up huge lines with the Heat mostly healthy, but he has at least 25 DraftKings points in nine straight games. I prefer Winslow in cash games, but on a smaller slate, he is plenty good enough to use in GPP formats as well. He’s not going to light it up against Boston though.

Dark Horses:

Reggie Bullock ($4,600): Another hot start, another quiet second half for Bullock. Can I just get his first quarter production and the last three quarters from someone else? Seriously, I keep riding Bullock for value, but he’s never going to produce enough to help you take down a GPP. I see him as mostly a cash game play if you need it.

Justin Jackson ($4,100): Jackson has played some big minutes for the Kings with Bagley out and Bjelica struggling. Jackson has 85.75 DraftKings points over the last three games. For those of you keeping track at home, that’s just a shade over 7x value over the last three games, and he is showing no signs of slowing down. Jackson is a great value tonight.

My pick: Jackson(SF); Gallinari(SF)

CHARLOTTE, NC – DECEMBER 12: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons reacts against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on December 12, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Blake Griffin ($9,200): Wow, this price is high. Especially when you consider that Blake didn’t haul down one single rebound in three quarters last night. Of course, Kuzma wasn’t missing much as he dropped 40 on the Pistons, but when you’re 6’10”, how can you not grab one missed shot? That was a crash back to earth for Blake, but he could be back up in the elite tonight against the weak front of the Kings. This could be a place to attack with the Detroit bigs.

Tobias Harris ($7,400): Harris has 75.75 DraftKings points in two meetings with Denver so far this year. This is not a great matchup for Harris, but it is definitely good enough to use him tonight. I prefer Gallinari, but if I have the cash, I will make room for both. We can’t ignore just how good Harris has been this year.

Honorable Mention:

Paul Millsap ($6,300): Millsap ravaged the Clippers for 35.5 DraftKings points the only time he played against them. That was despite going just 1-7 from the floor in that game. Millsap racked up 16 rebounds against the undersized Clippers in that game. He could do it again if he gets enough run.

Al Horford ($6,100): Horford is still on a minutes limit, but his price is down low enough that I would still consider using him. Prior to last night, Horford had topped 30 DraftKings points in three straight games despite playing 25 minutes or less.

Dark Horses:

Marcus Morris ($5,600): Morris went nuts on Indiana last night, but I don’t know that I would expect a repeat. Miami has a solid front. What we did see last night was just how quickly Morris can stack up the points. He is a constant threat to value. Boston has found a role in which Morris can be explosive for short bursts and stay fresh for the entire game.

Kelly Olynyk ($3,900): Olynyk and Bam keep cannibalizing each other’s value with Whiteside back. Olynyk is the safer part of this since he is the more all around player. Olynyk can knock down perimeter shots, so that keeps him on the court more than Bam. Or Whiteside for that matter. Olynyk is a decent value play here, but we shouldn’t have to reach this low on a night like this.

My pick: Morris(PF), Olynyk(F); Millsap(PF), Harris(F)

DENVER, COLORADO – DECEMBER 16: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets plays the Toronto Raptors at the Pepsi Center on December 16, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,500): Jokic is going to be pretty highly owned because you can pretty much take whoever you want on this slate. I feel like making myself unpopular today, so I will just say it. I wont be one of them. Jokic only has 76 DraftKings points in 54 minutes against the Clippers this year. Will this game stay close enough? I would rather pay for Westbrook here, and I think I prefer a balanced build over trying to cram the two into my lineup just because I can.

Andre Drummond ($9,100): Drummond put up 37.75 DraftKings points in pretty much three quarters last night. He is going to dominate the Kings. That’s a given. The Kings are awful on the inside. The only question here is whether Griffin will overshadow him or not.

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Honorable Mention:

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,600): For as terrible as WCS has been defensively, the rest of his game has been spot on. Cauley-Stein has at least 40 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. The only game he missed was when he played just 18 minutes against Orlando.

Montrezl Harrell ($6,500): The price on Harrell is still pretty high, especially when you consider that Harrell only has 53.75 DraftKings points against Denver this year. Now the good news: those points were in just 35 minutes combined over the two games. If the Clippers play Harrell 30 minutes, he could clear 40.

Dark Horses:

Marcin Gortat ($4,000): Gortat is still the guy the Clippers turn to for some reason. So as long as he is, Gortat remains the value play to target here. Not that he’s a great one, but Gortat did put up 20.25 DraftKings points in the last meeting against Denver.

Jokob Poeltl ($3,600): Poeltl is still starting for Rudy Gay, so I suppose that makes him a value play. Poeltl was a disaster trying to guard Gasol last night or trying to get anything off of him. Poeltl is a pretty big risk here because Adams could push him around too.

My pick: Drummond(C), Gortat(UTIL); Drummond(C), Gortat(UTIL)

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