EPL DFS Breakdown – Saturday 1/12/19

Welcome!  My name is Vince, and I am a new contributor for FantasyCPR focusing on soccer DFS.  I’ve written for a couple of sites in the past, so I’m sure some of you are familiar with my EPL DFS Breakdowns.

For any new readers, hopefully I can fill your need for EPL DFS advice and keep you coming back for more.  I use a few different column formats depending on the type of slate that is presented, but today you’ll see my most common full slate format where I open with a slate overview and jump to a position-by-position breakdown.

I’d also like to note that my articles usually steer towards FanDuel pricing and scoring, but information I include like certain statistics, match-ups, narratives, and more can pertain to any site you play on.  Before I waste any more of your time, let’s get started with the EPL DFS Breakdown.

Slate Overview

On Saturday, we have been given a pretty typical 6 game slate kicking off at 10:00am ET.  From a Vegas perspective, Chelsea is the largest favorite on the slate at home against a Newcastle side that is hardly clear of the relegation zone.

Liverpool are also heavily favored as they travel to Brighton this weekend.  As the only two top 6 teams on the slate, elite players from both squads will take plenty of ownership in cash games.  As expected, both the Chelsea v. Newcastle and the Brighton v. Liverpool game have the highest over/under for goals scored at 3.0.

The lowest total on the slate is the important relegation battle between Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City at 2.0.  Also note that some of these teams played during the week this week, so there could be some starting lineup rotation.

Target Forwards

Roberto Firmino (Liverpool @ Brighton, $12,000) – After only 4 goals in the league in his first 19 games this season, Firmino has equaled that total in his last 2 games.  Two weeks ago, Firmino exploded for a hat trick against Arsenal, and followed that performance up with a goal in a tough loss away to Manchester City in an incredible game at the top of the table.

Firmino has the hottest hand right now among forwards on this slate.  Brighton have given up just over one goal per game on home turf this season, but I expect Liverpool to bring their A game on Saturday with Manchester City lurking.

Liverpool should control the majority of the possession in this game which should lead to several opportunities for Firmino to put one in the back of the net.  He’s a good option in all formats this week.

Jamie Vardy (Southampton @ Leicester City, $10,000) – I don’t normally write Vardy up often because he’s a known entity, however he’s in a pretty tasty spot this week.  His opponent, Southampton, have conceded 21 goals in 11 road games this year which averages out to 1.9 per game.

Vardy enters this game in solid form with 4 goals in his last 7 EPL appearances.  He’s also shown a fairly decent fantasy floor lately for a player who is often goal-dependent.  Leicester City are known to be a better team at home and should have the upper hand in this one which should make for a good fantasy day for Vardy.

Also consider: Aleksandar Mitrovic ($11,000)

Value Forwards

Steve Mounie (Huddersfield @ Cardiff, $8,500) – Mounie is the first cheap forward I would risk punting with on Saturday’s slate.  It’s been a rough campaign for Mounie and Huddersfield in general, but he got his first goal of the season last week against Burnley.

Additionally, over the last four games Mounie is averaging 18.2 FDP.  Mounie has a prime matchup this week against a porous Cardiff defense that is allowing 1.95 goals per game (2.1 at home) this season.  Granted, Huddersfield have struggled mightily scoring goals away from Kirklees Stadium, but something has to give in this game.

Chris Wood (Fulham @ Burnley, $8,000) – Both Ashley Barnes ($8,500) and Chris Wood are viable punts on this slate, but for $500 savings and slightly better peripheral stats, I’ll take Wood.  Chris Wood is coming into this game having scored in both of Burnley’s last two EPL games, and he has a big plus matchup at home against Fulham.

Fulham have given up the most goals in the league so far this season (47 total, 2.2 avg).  Wood isn’t a prolific goal scorer, but he’s in good form and is well worth a punt on this slate.

Target Midfielders

Eden Hazard (Newcastle @ Chelsea, $11,500) – Hazard has been one of the top midfielders in the league so far this season, and he gets to enjoy a great matchup at home against an inferior Newcastle side.

A quick glance at his game logs will show you good consistency from a fantasy perspective with a nice floor and high ceiling.  Newcastle’s defense has been okay even on the road where they give up 1.2 goals per game, but Chelsea are big favorites and Hazard should dominate.  He’s the kind of player to lock into lineups in all formats especially at $1,000 cheaper than Salah.

James Maddison (Southampton @ Leicester City, $8,500) – Maddison is proving to be a huge signing for Leicester this year.  He’s been an affordable, high quality fantasy performer this year as well, and that is exactly what he will be in this game.

Maddison has good goal/assist upside and picks up all kinds of peripheral stats.  He also takes many free kicks and penalty kicks for Leicester which adds to his appeal.  This is the kind of matchup that Maddison should be able to exploit and get close to his fantasy ceiling.  He’s a top cash option with some GPP appeal especially if you stack with Vardy.

Also consider: Philip Billing ($8,000) in GPPs

Value Midfielders

Ashley Westwood (Fulham @ Burnley, $7,500) – Ashley Westwood has created 10 chances in his last three games, and he should be able to continue his bright play against this weak Fulham defense.  His price is fairly affordable on this slate given the matchup, but if you want to save $500, Johann Gudmundsson ($7,000) is good value on paper as well.

Callum Hudson-Odoi (Newcastle @ Chelsea, $5,500) – The young Chelsea attacker has received a ton of interest from Bayern Munich in this winter transfer window, but Chelsea look keen on keeping him.  Hudson-Odoi has only appeared in one EPL match this season but has appearances in other competitions.

On January 5th he earned a start in Chelsea’s FA Cup match against Nottingham Forrest and assisted Alvaro Morata on both goals in a 2-0 win.  Hudson-Odoi looks to have shaken off some early season injuries and even Sarri has said he would like him to feature more.  If Sarri keeps to his word and Hudson-Odoi starts, he is well worth a punt at this price.

Also consider: Aron Gunnarsson ($6,000)

Target Defenders

Ricardo Pereira (Southampton @ Leicester City, $7,000) – If you read my breakdowns in the past, I don’t normally recommend paying up for high-priced defenders, but I write them up if you feel like going that direction.

Over his last four EPL games, Pereira is averaging a whopping 31.2 FDP.  He’s as hot as they come as a defender in a good matchup where he could rack up all kinds of stats against a lesser Southampton team.  Ben Chilwell ($5,000) and Wes Morgan ($4,500) are intriguing punt defenders.  They’ve been picking up peripheral stats at a nice rate and could also get a clean sheet bonus in this game.

Shane Duffy (Liverpool @ Brighton, $7,000) – Shane Duffy is often one of the top priced defenders on any given slate, which usually means a fade from me.  However, Duffy had a 27.3 FDP game against Liverpool the first time around and he could replicate that performance this weekend since he will be busy trying to shut down Liverpool’s juggernaut attack.

Paying for him will cost you at other positions, but there’s enough value if you want Duffy at what should be low ownership.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (Liverpool @ Brighton, $6,000) – The attacking wingback should have plenty of opportunities to join the attack this weekend against Brighton since Liverpool should dominate possession.

In a plus match-up, it’s the hope that TAA can create several chances and get a few other peripheral stats while possibly adding a goal or assist.  His floor is not safe, and he isn’t cheap either, so I would reserve him for GPPs.

Also consider: Aaron Wan-Bissaka ($5,500)

Value Defenders

Jannik Vestergaard (Southampton @ Leicester City, $5,000) – I’m not quite sure why Vestergaard is this cheap as he has 19.7 FDP in his last five EPL games; that’s just under 4x value.  There is no reason he shouldn’t be able to continue that nice run of fantasy outings.  He’s the best value among the mid-priced defenders.

Teammate Cedric Soares ($4,500) also looks to be slightly underpriced.  He’s shown the most offensive upside out of any defender priced under 5K on this slate, and he’s worth a look as a cheap defender.

Also consider: Cyrus Christie ($4,000)

Target Goalkeepers

Alisson Becker (Liverpool @ Brighton, $6,000) – Alisson is a good GK to target if you’re looking for win and clean sheet bonuses.  Liverpool don’t really allow many goals at all and Brighton could struggle even controlling the ball in this game, let alone scoring.  His save upside is minimal, but he’ll make for a good cash GK option.

Kasper Schmeichel (Southampton @ Leicester, $5,500) – For $500 cheaper than Alisson, you can go get Schmeichel against a Southampton team that averages less than one goal per game on the road.  He’s slightly more risky than other top GKs like Alisson and Kepa Arrizabalaga, but he also carries more save upside than either of the other two.

Also consider: Kepa Arrizabalaga ($6,500)

Thanks for reading my EPL DFS Breakdown.  As always, I’ll be available via my Twitter account (@vdray5) leading up to lock on Saturday morning.  You will be able to get any updates to my article or last-minute advice based on starting lineups by shooting me a follow.