FanDuel NBA Breakdown: 1/10 – Big Night for Big Men

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday, 1/10

Welcome back to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS.  Thanks for joining me for another slate breakdown and I hope you like some of the changes I’ve made to the made to the article recently.  My goal was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs.

When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.

Tonight we have four games on the main slate on FanDuel.  While this is a small slate by comparison to the others we’ve had this week, it’s also the most games we’ve had on a Thursday in a while and four games is better than the two or three-gamers we had for several weeks.

"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."

I’m trying to take a big picture look at the slate and give you a place to start your research, whether you’re a cash game player, GPP player (or maybe you play both – like me).  The smaller the slate, the less “cash-game friendly” it usually is, but that certainly doesn’t mean you can’t play cash games if you really like your build.

There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others.  My best advice is to never settle on a lineup too early in the day, and this particular slate has a lot of questions that need to be answered before we have a really clear picture of who we want to roster.  Let’s take a closer look at what tonight’s NBA slate has to offer!

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Thursday Night 4-Gamer

Injury Report

OUT: Goran Dragic, Rudy Gay, Will Barton, Nerlens Noel, Aaron Baynes

Doubtful: Zaza Pachulia

Questionable: Ish Smith, Iman Shumpert, Gary Harris

Probable: Marvin Bagley III

Wow! I know this is a small slate, but that’s the smallest injury report we’ve had in weeks. Not having to worry about a ton of injury news will be nice today, but at the same time, it could make roster construction tough if we don’t have a ton of value to work with.

Vegas Info

The Boston-Miami game has the lowest total on the board at only 212, while the other three games come in somewhere between 223 and 225.

The tightest spread is in the game between the Spurs and Thunder, with OKC being 1.5 point road favorites. That game is sitting at 223.5, just behind Detroit-Sacto and Denver-L.A. Clippers.

The Spurs and the Pistons, two slow halfcourt offense teams, are getting major pace bumps tonight, while Denver is getting a small bump in their matchup with the Clippers.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core

DeMar DeRozan (9000)

I normally wouldn’t love paying 9k for DDR, but tonight’s slate really demands that we do. The Spurs played poorly last night but had a tough matchup against a slow Memphis team. I hope people look at the box score and avoid them because I’m all over the Spurs tonight to bounce back in a major pace-up spot against OKC.

DeRozan has a 28% usage and thrives in faster-paced games. I like targeting OKC with opposing shooting guards, and if you look at what Andrew Wiggins did to the Thunder the other night you’ll remember why. DDR is the first guy in my lineups tonight despite his hefty price tag.

Dwayne Wade (5400)

Wade is playing well in his bench role lately, putting up 29, 25, and 29 FD points in his last three games. He only needs 25 minutes to make value since he has a 26% usage rate off the bench (second highest of any bench player on this slate behind Lou Williams).  Miami’s rotation is pretty murky these days and the return of Dion Waiters has only clouded it a bit more, but I still think it’s safe to pencil in Wade for 25+ FD points tonight in what should be a good game against Boston.

Marcus Morris (4700)

Morris is a value that we really need to take advantage of tonight. He was a 6k player for a while before missing a game and then having a few mediocre performances. He bounced back in a big way last night with 34 FD points against Indiana and he’s in another good spot tonight as Miami ranks 18th against the power forward position. Morris only played 23 minutes last night as that game turned into a blowout so he should be rested and ready to go.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays

Nikola Jokic (11000)

The price on the Joker is steep, but you could argue he’s the top play on the entire slate.  The Nuggets has the highest team total tonight and Jokic has one of the best matchups as the Clippers have been destroyed by centers this year. He’s also really good at basketball, which helps (what analysis!)

He’s a per-minute monster and racked up 30 FD points against the Clips in only 20 minutes in their last game. If this game stays close throughout I expect Jokic to have the highest raw score of the night.

Paul Millsap (6800)

I love Paul Millsap. He was a staple of my year-long teams for years (do people still play year-long fantasy? I’m 100% a DFS junkie full-time.) The ‘Sapper is a little long in the tooth these days, but he can still pile up stats in a hurry. He’s a really important piece of this Denver team and it appears that he’s finally being cleared to play enough minutes where he is playable as he played 30 minutes against Miami on Monday. I love this spot for Denver and I think you can absolutely pair Millsap with Jokic in lineups, they are not mutually exclusive.

Blake Griffin (10000)

Blake burned me last night, did he burn you? How do you not get one rebound in 30 minutes on the floor as a power forward?  So who is going to play Blake after he shafted us when his price went UP 800 bucks? I think I am. The spot is tremendous as the Pistons are being paced up more than any other team on the slate and Griffin should thrive in that environment. Sacto gives up a ton of production to big men and Blake could easily hit 50+ FanDuel points in this game at low ownership. Don’t let recency bias stop you from playing him!

Willie Cauley-Stein (7500)

I just had to add a fourth big man today as I love the spot for WCS. The Kings are rested and playing a Detroit team that’s coming off a disappointing loss to the Lakers last night. Willie is playing well right now and I like targeting Drummond with opposing centers, he’s simply a bad defender despite what many think. On a slate with some more well-known big men, Willie will go under-owned.

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays

For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.

Bryn Forbes (4400)

Forbes isn’t a high usage guy, but is getting 30+ minutes a night for the Spurs and is a very capable shooter. He’s never going to put up a huge number, but he could be a cheap 25 spot tonight if his shot is falling.

Terry Rozier (4400)

Scary Terry has been good lately, even after being pushed back to the bench by the return of Kyrie. He’s averaging 24 FD points in his last two games in only 19 minutes a game and he anchors the second unit for the Celtics.

Malik Beasley (3900)

Beasley started and played 36 minutes on Tuesday when Gary Harris was out. He somehow only managed to get 10 FD points and he tends to run hot and cold. But when he’s hot, he can pile up the stats and he went on a tear for a four-game stretch back in December where he averaged nearly 30 FD points a game.

Justin Jackson (3900)

Jackson would be an excellent play if we found out Shumpert was going to miss as he’s been getting a ton of minutes in his last three games with Shump out and has been pretty productive. At this price, he doesn’t need to do too much to hit value and he wouldn’t hurt you if he busted with the drop score rule.

Pau Gasol (3900)

Pau is back! He played 19 minutes last night and put up 21.9 FD points against Memphis. Now, he could easily be rested tonight so try to monitor that situation if you can, but if we got word he was going to play again he’s an intriguing punt (though I don’t love punting center with all the other options we have at the position).

FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview

This is not an ideal slate for cash games, but I still think cash is viable with four games and I really like the core I put out there. We have just enough value to make things work. It’s also a great GPP slate because there are some high-priced options who may go under-owned due to the lack of cheap chalky value plays. As far as small slates go, this is a pretty solid one for DFS purposes.

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I always like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.  Be careful with punts tonight, there’s only a few that I really like.

Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll find some of my cash core players in here, as well as other players who I believe, have a solid floor due to their combination of secure minutes and fantasy production per minute.

Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. There’s still a lot of injury information we need before 7:00 PM tonight when lineups lock.

PG: Derrick White (5500)
PG: Kyrie Irving (8400)
SG: Dwayne Wade (5400)
SG: DeMar DeRozan (9000)
SF: Justin Jackson (3900)
SF: Danilo Gallinari (7400)
PF: Marcus Morris (4700)
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge (8100)
C: Willie Cauley-Stein (7500)

I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!