NFL FanDuel: Divisional Playoff Weekend – Saturday Million Special

Playoff football continues! Welcome to the Divisional Playoff Weekend edition of NFL FanDuel Targets from FantasyCPR. This article will focus on the two-game, Saturday Only slate on FanDuel.

Wild Card Weekend is here, and FanDuel is offering two, 2-game slates, and a four gamer with both days combined. This article will cover the Saturday only slate, which is the “good” slate as far as contests goes. The biggest GPP of the weekend falls on this slate, and it is the $9.99 Saturday Million, with $250,000 guaranteed to first place.

I am not sure why they didn’t, but FanDuel should have fixed this one after last weekend. The four-game slate is so much better for so many reasons, that it is almost nonsense to have this big tournament on the smaller slate.

Anyways, I know I am going to play the short slate this weekend simply because we have Mahomes vs. Luck, so I thought I would share my thoughts in two articles this week. Look for a breakdown of the full slate for cash games by Saturday morning as well.

Before we get to the targets this week, let’s go game-by-game for the two on this slate. I will give my picks for the game again just for fun. Sound good? Then click the bar below to proceed.

NFL FanDuel: Divisional Weekend – Game Breakdown (Saturday Only)

Saturday Games: 1/12/19

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) – (57)

I personally wish this was the Sunday afternoon game and the last game of the weekend, but I don’t make the schedule. I guess something can also be said about being pumped for the first playoff game of the weekend as well.

This is easily the best game to target, as Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs offense will host Andrew Luck and the streaking Indianapolis Colts.

I can remember going into the regular season, this Colts defense was a bunch of no-names and the cornerbacks were especially being picked on. Target the Colts with wide receivers they said. All I know is I am glad I gave up on that strategy around week 10, because this “no-name” defense has certainly held it’s own.

The offensive line of the Colts has proven to be one of the best in the league as well. With three former first-rounders anchoring that line protecting Andrew Luck‘s blindside, this offense has been rolling. It’s going to be a close game in my opinion, but I think the Chiefs hold on at home. PICK: Chiefs 34 – Colts 30

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (-7) – (49.5)

The Saturday evening tilt should be another good one, as I don’t quite think the Cowboys are getting enough credit here. The Rams defense is one of the best in the league, and the fact that they should hone in on Ezekiel Elliott and make Dak Prescott beat them, is basically the one piece of information that is shaping my lineup for me on this short slate.

Look at it this way. Elliott will likely be the chalkiest player on the slate. Mahomes will not be as owned as he should with his price tag, and Todd Gurley will cost you quite a bit as well, and we don’t even know how healthy he is. If the Rams can stop Elliott or even slow him down a bit, the Rams should cover this spread. I don’t expect the points to be flying in this one however. PICK: Rams 24 – Cowboys 13

NFL FanDuel: Saturday Million Special

QB – Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs – $9,000

First thing is first. No matter which way you go, I think you 100% have to take one of the quarterbacks in this game. I will be completely shocked if Jared Goff or Dak Prescott even come close to outscoring Mahomes and Andrew Luck.

That said, Mahomes at $9K is a lot. If this was a bigger cash slate I would say he is a lock in this spot, but I think Luck comes very close to Mahomes’ production FDP wise when this one ends.

Ownership may be slightly higher for Luck in the Sunday Million, because with the lack of wide receiver depth the $500 savings is proving to go a long way when it comes to roster construction. That only makes Mahomes a better GPP play in my opinion, but again I don’t think you can go wrong with either because both will be plenty owned.

***Also Consider: Andrew Luck – $8,500***

NFL FanDuel: Saturday Million Special 

RB – Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys – $8,800 

I feel a similar situation with Zeke as I do with Mahomes, and that actually goes for Todd Gurley as well. On a two game slate you have to be a little different so remember that when we get to the sample lineup.

Is there any doubt in my mind that Elliott will touch the ball more than any RB or WR receiver this weekend? No. In fact he is too cheap at $8,800 if we are being honest, but a fade here does make a ton of sense.

Remember, to win a huge tournament like this, you have to have a play or two off of the masses or it won’t work. You might cash with all of the popular studs and cashing is always good.

But I am going for a win, and my approach will be to fade Mahomes, Gurley and Zeke. Now that I have written up the two best plays on the slate and recommended to fade them, let’s move along and find out who I am actually targeting.

RB – Damian Williams – Kansas City Chiefs – $6,100 

There is plenty of Spencer Ware talk but I am not buying it all. First of all, Williams has stepped right in and been fantastic in the lead role for the Chiefs, scoring six touchdowns in the last four games. I am not expecting more than the 10-15 carries he has been receiving on average, but I think Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid will have some pass plays set up for him.

Ware still hasn’t practiced and remains highly questionable. Even if he plays I doubt he cuts much into this workload. Williams is going to be very chalky, but he is one value play I can’t pass on for this slate.

***Also Consider or FLEX: Marlon Mack – $7,400***

NFL FanDuel: Saturday Million Special 

WR – Tyreek Hill – Kansas City Chiefs – $8,400

Instead of paying up for the expensive three I mentioned earlier, my top target is going to be Tyreek Hill this week. I want as much offense on both sides of this game here as possible, and without completely punting a position other than defense, I can get quite a bit.

Hill only needs a few catches to rack up yards, and I think he will get a few extra looks in this game. I have a feeling the Chiefs will be down at some point, and Mahomes will look to connect on a deep ball more than once with Hill, like he has done all season long.

The Colts secondary has overachieved all season long doing just enough for the defensive line to shine, but Mahomes and company will be able to get it done through the air.

WR – T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts – $7,900

If I pay up for Zeke, I can’t play Hill or Hilton. Well I could, but the rest of my lineup wouldn’t look very good. There are plenty of different ways to go despite the small slate, and Hilton could end up an even better play than Hill. However, this is yet another ownership move.

With Hilton and Hill having a similar skill set, besides the fact that Hill is obviously faster, and the fact that the Chiefs defense looks bad on paper, I think Hilton ends up the chalk here. I was going to play both Hilton and Hill, but in digging for leverage on a two-game slate, I have another idea. We will get to that idea eventually, I promise.

WR – Josh Reynolds – Los Angeles Rams – $5,600

There are basically two receivers under $6K who I even considered, as both Reynolds and Michael Gallup should be both be on the field for plenty of snaps. You could risk going lower and throwing a dart at someone like Chris Conley or Demarcus Robinson, but there just hasn’t been enough targets going to either of those guys.

Of course Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks are going to get most of the looks. Todd Gurley returning to the mix also means there is even less looks for Reynolds. However, this Cowboys defense has been stout against the run, and I think the Rams are going to have to throw plenty.

Reynolds has filled the void left by the injury to Cooper Kupp, and has contributed just over 400 yards and five touchdowns for the Rams on the season.

This will be a popular play no doubt, but the chance of surpassing value in this price range is only comparable by maybe Gallup, and I plan to play them both. On top of that, with Elliott and Gurley in their price range, this will likely be the first two-game slate of the year that I do not use a RB at the FLEX spot.

***Also Consider or FLEX: Amari Cooper $6,500 – Michael Gallup $5,700***

NFL FanDuel: Saturday Million Special

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,500

I kept going back and forth trying to fit either Elliott with Hill and Eric Ebron, then I tried Mahomes with Kelce and was a few hundred short of what I wanted to accomplish.

Then it finally dawned on me… I am trying to separate myself from the field, and find a solid contrarian approach to win this tournament, and I realized I am going to go the two tight end route, just like in the old days.

This should be the game where we get the big score, and both of these tight ends are huge parts of their teams offense. Using the FLEX spot on Ebron with Kelce in my tight end will be a move that not a lot of people do. These two scored a combined 23 touchdowns in the regular season, and playing both may not even enter most peoples minds.

***Also Consider or FLEX: Eric Ebron – $6,600***

DEF – Dallas Cowboys – $4,200

Simply a punt a move, as the only defense anybody can feel comfortable with is the Rams, and there is just no way to justify that price for me. With as shaky as Jared Goff has been the last couple of weeks, and with how solid the Cowboys defense has played over the last month or so, going as low as possible at this position just makes so much sense.

I doubt you want to risk the Chiefs or Colts defense with an over/under of 57 in that one, and the $800 in salary from the Rams to the Cowboys makes a world of difference on this slate.

***Also Consider: Los Angeles Rams – $5,000***

NFL FanDuel: Saturday Million Special – Sample Lineup

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides. It is not an optimal line-up. It is in fact, just a “Sample Lineup.” 

QB –  Andrew Luck – $8,500
RB –  Marlon Mack – $7,400
RB –  Damian Williams – $6,100
WR – Tyreek Hill – $8,400
WR – Michael Gallup – $5,700
WR – Josh Reynolds – $5,600
TE –   Eric Ebron – $6,600
FLEX – Travis Kelce – $7,500
DEF – Dallas Cowboys – $4,200

I hope you enjoyed some bonus playoff coverage today. You can find me on Twitter with the link at the top of the page. Look for the same type of article for the conference championship round next week as well right here at FantasyCPR! Good luck this weekend!