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The Whiteboard: Kevin Durant is the Golden State Warriors’ anchor

By Ti Windisch

OAKLAND, CA - DECEMBER 27: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors pumps up the crowd during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at ORACLE Arena on December 27, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA - DECEMBER 27: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors pumps up the crowd during the game against the Portland Trail Blazers at ORACLE Arena on December 27, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /
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The Golden State Warriors have a lot of stars, but Kevin Durant has been the one keeping the Warriors near the top of the West this season.

For pretty much all of the Golden State Warriors dynastic run in recent years, Steph Curry has been the Warrior to have the most impact on the team’s performance on the court. Even after the Dubs added Kevin Durant for last season, Golden State lived and died with Curry.

An example: last season, the Warriors were 13.2 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents when Steph was on the floor, and basically even with them when he was not playing. That gap in differential was the widest the team saw going from on to off for any player.

Kevin Durant, despite being one of the greatest scorers ever, simply didn’t have the same impact on Golden State. The Warriors were 7.0 points per 100 possessions better when he played, and 4.2 points per 100 better when he sat. KD had a positive influence, but not in the same way Curry did.

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This season, that has changed. In part because of the Warriors using Curry in more of an off-ball role and in part due to Steph missing some time due to injury, Durant has become the anchor for Golden State.

Curry still gives the Warriors a higher ceiling. The Dubs are plus 11.6 points per 100 possessions in his minutes, and they’re plus 9.1 points per 100 in KD’s minutes. Without Durant, though, Golden State has legitimately struggled.

The Warriors are 2.6 points per 100 worse without Curry on the floor, which is not good. What’s even worse is that Golden State has been outscored by a whopping 7.2 points per 100 possessions when Durant is not on the floor. Last season, no rotation player’s absence caused the Warriors to get outscored. In 2016-17, Golden State was 2.7 points per 100 possessions worse without Curry.

All this is to say that for the first time in the Durant/Warriors era, one player sitting out is having an outsized impact on Golden State’s dominance. Through Klay Thompson slumping, Curry dealing with injuries and Draymond Green not being able to shoot whatsoever, Durant has the Warriors near the top of the NBA. Were it not for him, Golden State would be much worse off in a very competitive Western Conference.

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