DraftKings NBA Picks January 11: Can Mitchell outscore Harden?

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DraftKings NBA Picks January 11: Can Mitchell outscore Harden?

We have a nine game Friday for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. Last night we could have pretty much anyone we wanted, especially after Blake Griffin rested. Tonight it’s back to picking and choosing. We have five guys in five figures, with three of them over $11,000. LeBron is already out, so we are down to four, It sounds like Giannis is a go. Which guys should we pay for?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($9,900): For those of you auto fading Curry because of the blowout potential, know this. He put up 45 DraftKings points on the Bulls in just 24 minutes the first time around. The difference is that now the Bulls are pretty much healthy with the exception of Denzel Valentine. They are a better team than the one Curry faced in the first meeting. That doesn’t mean the Bulls can suddenly guard him or that they are going to win. It just means that the Warriors may not run off with the game until the fourth quarter.

Ben Simmons ($8,900): Simmons racked up 52 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes against Atlanta the first time around. This game is likely going to be a blowout, but Simmons is one of those guys that can hit value before the starters rest. I don’t know that I would trust Embiid to do the same at his price, but Simmons looks pretty safe here.

Kyle Lowry ($7,600): It has been a fairly tough stretch for Lowry, and he wasn’t all that great against the Nets the first time around anyway. So why consider him here? Especially in a game that could turn into a blowout? The Nets are still awful against point guards, and Lowry is priced down due to his recent struggles. This is the spot where he could go off.

Honorable Mention:

Kris Dunn ($6,600): The Bulls have kind of paced themselves up anyway, so I think this game with the Warriors could stay close long enough for Dunn to put up another one of those nice lines that he has been putting up lately. Yes, the Warriors play good defense, but they get out an run with you too. Dunn may be low owned here, and I can see why, but I do like him at this price.

Lonzo Ball ($6,500): Normally I wouldn’t consider Ball on a mostly full night, but who’s going to play point for Utah? When one particular position has been totally gutted, it’s worth using anyone against it. Even a guy like the streaky Ball. I wouldn’t trust this in cash, but you can do worse for GPP’s.

Eric Bledsoe ($6,100): Bledsoe is easy to forget with all of the stars on this team. His numbers are kind of all over the place, so if you can’t handle the inconsistency, it’s best to stay away. However, this is a really good matchup against a Wizards defense that would make the Nets blush. They couldn’t guard the position with Wall healthy, and aren’t any better now. My only issue is that they really aren’t better anywhere else, so Bledsoe could get lost in the shuffle again.

Dark Horses:

Jordan Clarkson ($5,700): Clarkson has 113 DraftKings points in the last three games, so he is in the middle of one of those hot streaks right now. We might as well ride it out until it’s over. Houston is still a decent defensive team with Paul out, but in a paced up road game, Clarkson is going to get a ton of shots. If he hits them like he has been, Clarkson may hit 40 again.

Seth Curry ($3,600): Curry has scored 30 real points over the last two games. Before losing most of the last two seasons to injury, Curry was becoming one of the better bench scorer around. He doesn’t do much of anything besides score, but it Lillard sits, Curry goes from solid bench value to 80% chalk. I don’t really think we can fade that and feel comfortable with it. If you play on a site without last swap, Curry is a very interesting play that could end up being huge.

Nazareth Mitrou-Long ($3,000): The Iowa State product looked solid in the summer league this year, but has only scored four DraftKings points in three appearances with the Jazz this year. He’s going to get some run tonight. The Jazz don’t have much of a choice. Korver isn’t running the point. Neither is Ingles. It’s Mitchell and Naz. That’s it.

My pick: The lesser-known Curry(PG), Mitrou-Long(G); Dunn(PG)

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 05: James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets celebrates after making a three point shot late in the fourth quarter of the 98-94 win overthe Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on November 5, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,500): I’m still not deterred by the price, but the possibility of a blowout is what might scare me off here. This is the first time I’ve thought about fading Harden since Paul went down even though more than half of you bailed by Monday. Harden put up 66 DraftKings points in a staggering 43 minutes against the Cavs earlier this year. If this games stays close, Harden might hit 80. No joke. If it’s not, the Rockets have been looking for an excuse to safely rest him. Harden will be lucky to hit 50 in a blowout.

Bradley Beal ($8,600): There are a lot of great options, not just good, at SG tonight. That is another reason that we can cite to fade Harden. Beal has at least 40 DraftKings points every game with Wall out. That’s not quite Harden without CP3, but the price is also almost four grand less. Beal’s getting at least 40. I love that floor for cash games, but I honestly think Milwaukee may hold him close enough to that floor that I have a legitimate fear of him not hitting value.

Honorable Mention:

Donovan Mitchell ($7,900): Utah has no point guards. Zero. None. Not one healthy one on the roster. Mitchell could play 48 minutes. They have a G-Leaguer on the way, but this is going to be the Mitchell show again. He is an absolute lock at this price. Mitchell started slowly in almost the same scenario on Wednesday. Many, including myself had some words to say about him that are not printable here. Mitchell must have heard since he went nuts in the second half. Sometime soon, Mitchell will be at a point where he can’t sustain value for his price. This is not the place.

Klay Thompson ($7,200): I don’t like paying this much for Klay because he is only a shooter when this team is at full strength. However, he has been shooting lights out lately. Klay dumped 56.5 oin the Knicks with 43 actual points in the blowout of the Knicks. The Bulls can’t defend the wing, and Klay is on fire. Count me among the intrigued.

C.J. McCollum ($6,300): McCollum is one of the more consistent guys around, but he is going to go nuts if Lillard isn’t able to play. We have seen very little of McCollum without Lillard. Only 20 total games in six years. In those games, C.J. is averaging 26.9 points, 5.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and a steal per game. That is roughly 42 DraftKings points per game. McCollum is way too cheap if LIllard sits. Otherwise, it will be just another 30 DraftKings point night for McCollum.

Dark Horses:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700): Brogdon has been in every one of my cash lineups over the last month. He is that consistent. He has three straight 30+ DraftKings point games, and Washington isn’t going to stop him either. Brogdon has hit 22 of 37 shots over that span along with his outstanding defense and solid rebounding. He is a good play in GPP tournaments as well, though his upside isn’t as high as some.

Alec Burks ($4,800): Burks have been putting up good numbers even with Clarkson going off. This will change if Rodney Hood makes his return, but until then, I have no issue riding both of these shooters. Both are good enough to use, but Clarkson is still easily the top priority with their prices so close.

Kyle Korver ($3,500): The Jazz desperately need healthy bodies and scoring. Korver provides both. Korver put up 23.75 DraftKings points in 24 minutes while Neto got the start How many minutes is Korver going to play with Neto out? It could be 30. If it is, Korver is a massive value for this price.

My pick: Harden(SG), Mitchell(UTIL); Mitchell(SG), Beal(G)

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DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kawhi Leonard ($9,700): Leonard has been on fire lately, racking up 117.75 DraftKings points in the last two games since the disaster in San Antonio. Kawhi also blasted the Nets for 52.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. This will hinge on whether this game stays close or not. It did the first time around, but the Nets are without RHJ and LeVert this time around though.

Luka Doncic ($8,400): Doncic is a pretty tough fade right now. Not only did he put up 43 DraftKings points in his first game against the Timberwolves, but Doncic has 95.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. If Smith is out again, Doncic could go for 50 again. If Smith plays, I would hesitate a little bit.

Honorable Mention:

Jimmy Butler ($7,600): The squeaky wheel has been greased lately. Butler has 74.5 DraftKings points over the last two games in 64 minutes. He was 8-9 from the floor in the blowout of the Wizards in only 28 minutes. This is a huge spot against Atlanta, especially if Butler remains more involved in the offense. He is holding up his end of the bargain though.

Andrew Wiggins ($6,800): Ryan Saunders takes over. Andrew Wiggins takes off! Wiggins blew up for 64.5 DraftKings points in the first game post-Thibodeau. Was it the system? Maybe. can Wiggins to this again? Maybe not for another 60, but this system seems to work for Wiggins. This is a small sample size, but the early returns are promising. Promising enough for me to take a shot at this price.

Dark Horses:

Joe Ingles ($5,700): Ingles put up 33 DraftKings points in the first game against the Lakers. Now with the Jazz backcourt practically empty, Ingles is going to take on even more of the scoring load. Between last year and this year we have seen the occasional big game from Ingles. This looks to be the place for another one.

Thaddeus Young ($5,600): Young is fully in play for me if Myles Turner is out again. If Turner is in, I think I’m off of this one. There is enough other value at this and other positions for the same price.

Marvin Williams ($5,200): Williams is getting plenty of run with Charlotte beaten up on the front line. He has at least 27 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. Forwards are the place to attack Portland, so I see Williams as a solid value play. The upside isn’t huge, but are we really going to complain if Williams hits 30 DraftKings points? I didn’t think so.

My pick: Young(SF); Ingles(SF)

MILWAUKEE, WI – APRIL 20: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks dunks over Aron Baynes #46 of the Boston Celtics during the second half of game three of round one of the Eastern Conference playoffs at the Bradley Center on April 20, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.(Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300): Giannis is putting up big numbers on everyone lately. His lowest tally since Christmas were his totals in two blowouts. Of course, Giannis still put up 48 DraftKings points in just 19 minutes against Altanta. There isn’t much for downside here. The only thing that is a little concerning would be his quad soreness and hip soreness. If this turns into a blowout, Giannis will probably be close to that 19 minutes than the normal 30 in a blowout. Milwaukee will rest him as soon as they can.

John Collins ($7,800): Collins has been on a tear lately, putting up 96 DraftKings points in 70 minutes over the last two games. He has had far less of an impact when the Hawks get blown out. The blowout potential is big, and my first instinct is to just avoid all parts of this one. We could be leaving out some great value, but if this game is a blowout, it will sink your lineup on a night like this.

Honorable Mention:

Kyle Kuzma ($7,200): Kuzma was mostly a non factor in the first meeting against Utah, but he has been a beast with LeBron out. My only issue here is with the same thing that torpedoed Drummond last night. Detroit was unable to get anything going without Griffin. The Jazz are essentially running without a point guard. There is a chance they get absolutely buried and everyone would understand. It would also destroy value on both sides of this one.

Pascal Siakam ($6,700): The Nets have had trouble with power forwards with RHJ out as well. Siakam’s price is up to the point where there aren’t many places that I would use him. This is one of the few. The Nets have no answer for Siakam, and should drop 40 here.

Dark Horses:

Dario Saric ($4,500): Andrew Wiggins isn’t the only guy happy to see Ryan Saunders. Saric didn’t start the game, but he did play 25 minutes and was far more involved in the offense as you can see by his 28.75 DraftKings points. I expect to see the minutes for Saric slowly increase and Taj to be gradually phased out under Saunders. Saric fits his style and vice versa. I really like Saric again at this price.

Kyle O’Quinn ($3,700): I’m putting a few more contingency plays in than normal, but that’s because I want you to be aware of where to go once news drops that someone is sitting. If Turner is out again, O’Qunn is in play. He has put up more than 20 DraftKings points in two of the three games Turner has missed this time around.

Michael Beastley ($3,400): Beastley emjoyed his best game as a Laker on Wednesday putting up 31 DraftKings points in 19 minutes. Beasley has at least 5x value in three straight games. I don’t see the Lakers really playing him much more than 20 minutes, but Beasley has 68.25 DraftKings points in just 49 minutes over the last three games. I don’t see a ton of upside, but if you can safely use someone at this low of a price, you take advantage!

My pick: Siakam(PF), Saric(F); Saric(PF), O’Quinn(F)

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Best Bets:

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200): Some are going to look at the game log and think that Saunders neutered KAT. Look closer. He didn’t. Steven Adams did. Towns was in foul trouble the entire game, so the 32.75 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes really isn’t all that bad. If Towns can stay out of foul trouble and on the court, Towns is good for 50. Look, I love Embid against Atlanta, but he was a non factor against them the first time around because of the blowout and Ben Simmons. Towns is a safer, and cheaper, bet.

Jusuf Nurkic ($8,100): Nurkic has struggled over the last two games, but he has only played 40 totals minutes in those games because of foul trouble. Charlotte wont be able to get him into foul trouble. They just aren’t big enough to get it done. Nurkic isn’t going to break the slate, but he could crack 40.

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Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($7,500): Sabonis has destroyed the Knicks this year with 83.25 DraftKings points in just 42 minutes. That’s almost two per minute! Can he do it over 30 minutes, which is what Sabonis will play if Turner is out again. I wouldn’t doubt it. This is a smash spot for Sabonis even if Turner is in the lineup. I’m using Sabonis either way.

Serge Ibaka ($6,200): HE’S PLAYING THE NETS! That is all.

Tristan Thompson ($5,800): Thompson destroyed the Rockets with 53 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I don’t expect Thompson to do that again, but don’t be shocked if he hits the mid 30’s here.

Dark Horses:

Wendell Carter ($5,400): Carter matches up well with the Warriors. He proved that in the first meeting with 34.75 DraftKings points. The Warriors like to run and like to go small. That suits Carter just fine. We wont see much of RoLo here, but Carter looks like a very nice value pick here.

Brook Lopez ($4,900): Lopez is really playing well for the Bucks right now. The Wizards are pretty weak up front, so I think Lopez gets enough chances to consider using as a value pick here. Like I mentioned earlier, most of the Bucks make me nervous. Lopez is an acceptable risk at this price though.

Kevon Looney ($4,100): Looney has at least 20 DraftKings points in every game since the calendar switched to 2019. He makes a strong value play here once again. Enjoy it while it lasts. Word has it Boogie is nearing a return.

My pick: Ibaka(C); Sabonis(C), Carter(UTIL)

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