FanDuel NBA Breakdown: 1/11 – Shooting Guards Galore
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Friday, 1/11
Welcome back to the Friday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS. I hope you like some of the changes I’ve made to the made to the article recently. I got a lot of great feedback from readers this week and I can’t thank you enough for reaching out and letting me know what you like about the Breakdown.
My goal was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
I’m trying to take a big picture look at the slate and give you a place to start your research, whether you’re a cash game player, GPP player (or maybe you play both – like me). The smaller the slate, the less “cash-game friendly” it usually is, but that certainly doesn’t mean you can’t play cash games if you really like your build.
Tonight we have a full 9-game slate on FanDuel and there’s a lot of injury information that we’re going to need today before making our final decisions. There are some really great games that we can target and likely a few we can cross off, too.
At first glance, it looks like a potentially very high scoring night in the league and therefore DFS, too. And as the title eludes to there is more depth at the shooting guard position tonight than I’ve ever seen before with Harden, Beal, Oladipo, Doncic, Mitchell, Thompson, and McCollum all being potentially great options. Shooting is usually one of the weaker positions on any slate, but that is far from the truth tonight. You better get those 2-guards right!
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others. My best advice is to never settle on a lineup too early in the day, and this particular slate has a lot of questions that need to be answered before we have a really clear picture of who we want to roster. Let’s take a closer look at what tonight’s NBA slate has to offer!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Nine Game Friday Slate
Injury Report
OUT: Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo, Ricky Rubio, Dennis Smith Jr, Raul Neto, Dante Exum, Kent Bazemore, Eric Gordon, Allen Crabbe, LeBron James, Robert Covington, Maurice Harkless, Taurean Prince, Thabo Sefolosha, Larry Nance, Markieff Morris, Cody Zeller, Jonas Valanciunas, Mitchell Robinson
Doubtful: Frank Ntilikina
Questionable: Damian Lillard, Derrick Rose, Darren Collison, Deonte’ Graham, J.J. Redick, Danny Green, Rodney Hood, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Enes Kanter, Myles Turner
Probable: Shaun Livingston, Zach Lavine, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ersan Ilyasova
That’s a pretty sizable list of guys who aren’t suiting up tonight and a few important names on the questionable list that would really impact the slate if they missed. I’m paying the most attention to the status of Lillard, Rose, Kanter, and Turner today.
Vegas Info
The game with the lowest total tonight is the Lakers-Jazz at 216, which tells you something about this slate since we usually see a few under 210. There are going to be a lot of points scored tonight.
There are two games that opened at 231 – the Hawks-Sixers game and the Wizards-Bucks game. The big difference here is that Philadelphia is a 12.5 point favorite while Milwaukee is only a 6 point favorite, making the latter a game I really want to target.
There are two other really big spreads tonight as the Warriors are 15.5 point favorites against the Bulls and the Rockets are 14.5 favorites against the Cavaliers. It’s hard to like the high-priced guys in these games as they certainly feel like potential blowouts.
The tightest spread comes from the Dallas-Minnesota game, with the T-Wolves being 5-point favorites at home.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight. I highly recommend playing cash games on a nightly basis to keep your bankroll up, otherwise, a cold week in tournaments will have you running out of funds quickly.
Donovan Mitchell (8100)
Mitchell is in a unique spot tonight. The Jazz are missing all three of their point guards and have very few healthy bodies, so Mitchell and Joe Ingles are likely going to have to handle the point guard duties. Mitchell has a wild 43% usage rate with all these other guards off the floor and should see his assist rate spike, too. The Jazz are being paced up by the Lakers and Mitchell happens to be scoring the ball well as he’s averaging over 28 actual points per game over his last three. He’s one of the safer options on the slate.
Luka Doncic (8200)
Luka continues to have a phenomenal rookie season. He averaging nearly 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists per game for the Mavericks. With Dennis Smith Jr. out tonight, I’m locking Doncic in my cash game lineups as he’s been really good with DSJ out of the lineup. His usage rate goes up to 29% and he has shown a nice ceiling lately scoring 44 and 48 FanDuel points in his last two games. This is one of the rare slate where we have enough quality options at shooting guard that we don’t really need to pay up James Harden in cash.
Kyle Lowry (7800)
Lowry is simply too cheap today and point guard is less loaded than usual on this slate. He’s played well in his two games since returning from a stretch where he missed 10 of 11 games and he’s got a solid matchup here against Brooklyn. I don’t love his ceiling with the Raptors at full strength as they are a good, balanced team that can spread out their production, but I do love his floor here and that’s what we are targeting in cash games. He feels like a safe bet for 35-40 FanDuel points.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays
Klay Thompson (7900)
You might scoff at the idea of paying almost 8k for the Warriors third option on offense, but this feels like a Klay Thompson kind of night. While he’s priced up, he’s still the cheapest of the big three Warriors (sorry Draymond) and we can’t ignore what he’s done to this team in the past and his current hot shooting. In his last two games against Chicago, he has scored 90 POINTS, including a 52-spot earlier this year. He’s also coming off 43 actual points against the Knicks and we know the Warriors like to feed him when he has the hot hand.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (11800)
Giannis is my favorite stud on the slate and I’m actually considering a full fade of James Harden for the first time in weeks. Giannis has a sweet matchup against the Wizards and I think his ceiling is as good if not better than Harden’s for less cost. He’s also at a position, small forward, that has a lot less depth so it makes sense to use him with the lack of other appealing options at the position. He’s a great option in all formats, but he probably won’t make my cash lineup just based on cost. But I have a ton of interest in GPPs because I think he’s likely the top raw point play on the slate.
Nicolas Batum (5300)
This might seem like an odd pick, but hear me out. Batum has had his worst offensive season in years and he’s clearly not the player he once was. However, he’s enjoyed a resurgence lately, averaging 10-5-3 with 2 steals and 1 block over his last three games. His minutes are back up where they need to be for us to consider him, too, playing 35 minutes a game in those three games. He’s not getting that many shots in this offense, but he can still contribute across the board in other statistical categories and I like the matchup here against Portland – a team that is missing their best wing defender in Harkless tonight. I’m calling a rare Batum triple-double against his old Portland squad!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats.
Mario Hezonja (4400)
Don’t look now but Super Mario has played 28 minutes per game in his last two games for the Knicks and put 32 FD points per game in those outings. Is the Knicks rotation reliable? No, but it’s clear that he’s shown the coach enough lately to get some more run and I like this price as a GPP gamble.
Ed Davis (4700)
Big Ed continues to produce with the second unit and is benefitting from the injuries to Crabbe and Hollis-Jefferson that has shortened the Nets rotation. His price is still under 5k and he’s such an efficient per minute producer that he can get us the 25 FD points we are looking for here at this price. Oh and it’s “revenge” against his old team, too!
Dario Saric (3900)
Mario and Dario in the same writeup, eh? The Homie looked good in his first game with the new Wolves head coach, playing 25 minutes and putting up a solid 15-7-2 line. We’ve been waiting for Minnesota to unleash him and tonight he could be a great source of value. He’s trending up and really underpriced.
Kevon Looney (4700)
Another day of value plays and another mention of Kevon Looney. The guy is just as consistent as they come. Being the fifth wheel on the Warriors means he never gets plays run for him, but he does get open looks and easy buckets as a result of the mismatches that Durant, Curry, and Thompson create. He should lock up an easy 25 FD points against the Bulls who are bad inside.
Ian Mahinmi (4700)
Mahinmi has been reborn lately, going from a guy who was totally out of the rotation to someone who is now playing 15-25 minutes as the backup center. He’s a defensive stat stuffing monster, racking up 6 blocks and 9 steals in his last four games. I love him in this game against the Bucks tonight.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night
Milwaukee Bucks (-6) @ Washington Wizards (231 total)
It sometimes feels like cheating to just write up the game with the highest total, but you’d be foolish for not getting some exposure to this game. The Wizards and Bucks are both being paced up here in this matchup and the spread means Vegas thinks Washington can hang with the Bucks tonight. Hopefully, the Wizards show up tonight as they’ve been running pretty hot and cold all season, but they’ve also played surprisingly well at times since John Wall got hurt.
The obvious plays here are Giannis and Bradley Beal (9500) from both teams and while they’re both expensive they are both capable of massive games in this matchup. I already mentioned Ian Mahinmi for the Wizards, but I also think Jeff Green (5400) and Otto Porter (6100) are interesting options. Trevor Ariza has faded into the background now that Washington is healthy on the wings.
On the Milwaukee side, you have to consider Eric Bledsoe (6700) at this price. We haven’t seen Bledsoe this cheap in a long time and while hasn’t done that much lately, he’s the kind of player who can rack up a ton of fantasy points with boards, blocks, and steals from the point guard position even if he’s not scoring a ton. The other Bucks to consider are Khris Middleton (7200) and Malcolm Brogdon (6100) who will be totally overlooked due to the ridiculous depth at the shooting guard position. Oh, and don’t forget about Brook Lopez (5800) who should have a mismatch against Thomas Bryant or Mahinmi when they try to guard him on the perimeter.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
I always like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
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Today’s sample lineup is a GPP lineup. I’m actually going to demonstrate something called a “planned zero” strategy here today. What that means is I have someone in my build who I expect to get a zero and be my drop score and I’m counting on all of the other 8 players to play well and hit value. This is a GPP-only strategy and I would never advise someone to use it in cash games.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. There’s still a lot of injury information we need before 7:00 PM tonight when lineups lock.
PG: Kyle Lowry (7800)
PG: Eric Bledsoe (6700)
SG: Donovan Mitchell (8100)
SG: Luka Doncic (8200)
SF: Nicolas Batum (5300)
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo (11800)
PF: Dario Saric (3900)
PF: Tyler Cavanaugh (or anyone else at 3500)
C: Ian Mahinmi (4700)
Next. NBA DFS Top Stacks - Friday, January 11. dark
Ok, that wraps it up! I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter. And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!