Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Friday January 11

DALLAS, TX – NOVEMBER 17: Jeff Teague #0 of the Minnesota Timberwolves at American Airlines Center on November 17, 2017 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) Fantasy Basketball Top Plays

Welcome into the Friday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We get a nice sized nine game slate for Friday night with a ton of studs in good spots so let’s go to work!

Trying to pick which of James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid is the Fantasy Basketball Top Plays for tonight is sort of like a hefty guy trying to pick between cheesecake, ice cream or chocolate. All three are great and all three are in fantastic spots tonight. Obviously, none of them are cheap so the most you’re going to be able to fit is two, if enough value emerges.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Jeff Teague, Wolves

The question of whether to chase the points from Andrew Wiggins aside, Teague is a great play in his own right. He gets to face off against the Dallas defense, which is bottom 10 against point guards on the season. On top of that, he’s put up big numbers since he returned from injury. Two games have been over 40 DK points and the third one was on pace for at least 35 before he got ejected.

I would come off this play a little bit if Derrick Rose was active, but it doesn’t appear that’s going to be the case tonight. Since Teague has been back, he’s recorded near a 1.40 FPPM mark and that is a little unsustainable but the price hasn’t caught up yet. He would be a great option if building a mostly balanced lineup with one stud.

Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, Raptors

Fade – Eric Bledsoe, Bucks 

Despite the sterling matchup, I’m not that excited to click on Bledsoe tonight. Over the past month, he has been out-produced quite often by Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon has a virtually identical usage rate and is actually leading in FPPM by 0.12 in that time span. On FanDuel, you can’t use Brogdon at point guard but on DraftKings, you can and I would. On FD, I would just try to find the $300 extra dollars for Teague.

Given the trajectory of both players, I want to take my shot with Brogdon since even the minutes are the same. While George Hill has entered the rotation, it does leave both Bledsoe and Brogdon with a little bit more of a limited ceiling, so they’re likely just cash plays as it is. However, a few points difference can be making money or missing the money line.

Honorable Mention – Trae Young, Hawks

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

*Note – If Damian Lillard gets ruled out, the top play is CJ Mccollum, who has a 34 percent usage rate without Lillard this season 

Top Play – Donovan Mitchell, Jazz 

He was featured in this very spot the last time I wrote an article and we have to go right back to the well tonight. For starters, the injury situation has gotten even worse for the Jazz than the last game. Now Raul Neto is out and the Jazz really are extremely thin at guard. Mitchell’s usage is through the roof, exceeding 40 percent with the injured players off the floor for the Jazz. After last game, we know exactly what he’s capable of with the ball in his hands so much.

The Lakers represent one of the best matchups a shooting guard can have on top of everything else. They have given up the second most real and DK points to the position. While Mitchell might be taking on a little bit more of a passing role with the injuries, he’s still going to be counted on to do the bulk of the scoring. The price didn’t come up too high to consider not playing him again tonight.

Honorable Mention – Luka Doncic, Mavericks(without Dennis Smith)

Fade – Klay Thompson, Warriors 

One thing that I’m not a fan of is paying up for a player like Thompson who is generally the third option in the offense after he’s coming off a monster game. The minutes are relatively safe for Thompson even with the giant spread because he usually sees a couple of fourth quarter minutes before the reserves come in. He has two games of basically 50 DK points in his last three and it’s time to hop off the train.

The Bulls actually are passable against shooting guards, giving up only the 11th fewest DK points to that position. When you’re as bad as the Bulls are, 11th best is actually not all that bad. With Mitchell being so close in price on both sites, it’s very hard to see a reason why I wouldn’t play him with the guaranteed usage. Thompson could easily have a 30 fantasy point game while Mitchell hits 50 again. If that scenario happened, you could be at a big disadvantage.

Honorable Mention – I think given the state of the Cavs and the price, you can make an argument to not pay for James Harden in GPP but it is still quite risky

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Joe Ingles, Jazz 

We’re going to continue down the Jazz stack with Ingles here for a couple of reasons. The first is the top end of SF on FanDuel is a little tough. Giannis Antetokounmpo is banged up and if the Bucks get up on Washington, you can be sure he sits early. Kevin Durant has the same concerns in his game(albeit without the injury factor) as does Kawhi Leonard. Those three would be GPP only for me, so I’m settling in the mid-range and banking on the uptick in usage for Ingles tonight.

With all the injured players off the court, Ingles sees a usage rate over 21 percent and a 0.89 FPPM and we saw the possibilities this past game when he eclipsed 30 fantasy points. Given the matchup against a bad Lakers defense, Ingles should be able to hit at least that mark tonight and if he plays 34 minutes like he did last game, there is the ceiling for more.

Fade – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks 

As I mentioned earlier, Greek enters this game with a hip and quad injury to start. He’s listed as a game-time decision, but doesn’t appear to be in danger of missing the game at this juncture. Even if he plays, it stands to reason that Milwaukee will be very careful with their star. They have a chance to come out of the East come playoff time, and running Antetokounmpo in a meaningless game makes zero sense.

As things stand, the spread is only 6.5 points but that might be Vegas covering the chance that Greek does indeed sit. Considering the Bucks have 17 more wins than the Wizards, I’m thinking that spread is a hedge. Regardless, if Greek does play and the Bucks start rolling, he’s going to be done. This can be a little scary, as we learned with Anthony Davis the other night. I wrote him as a fade because I figured the Cavs would get blasted in New Orleans. 81 DK points from AD made that the very wrong call but typically that type of process pays off.

Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Lakers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Serge Ibaka, Raptors 

The veteran big man for the Raptors and myself…well, we haven’t got along in this space yet this season. I’ve gotten him wrong more than I care to recall on both sides of the fence. I might curse myself again, but this is close to a “can’t fail” spot for him because he gets the Brooklyn Nets. They have given up the most points to centers by a good bit, and Ibaka is still getting a lot of minutes at the five. The Nets haven’t defended this position well all season and I don’t think it starts tonight.

If we look at the past five games, Ibaka has gotten to at least 30 minutes in three of the five. When he didn’t, one appeared to be foul trouble and one was blowout. While the latter is a concern in this game, there’s a lot of games on this slate that have that worry. Paying a reasonable price for Ibaka seems like a pretty wise course in one of the best matchups on the board, and even in 28-30 minutes, he can still hit value. If Brooklyn is on a slate, that means I’m playing big men against them.

Honorable Mention – Thad Young, Pacers(especially if Myles Turner is out)

Fade – John Collins, Hawks 

One spot that would have me a hair nervous tomorrow is paying up for Collins since he’s coming off a huge game against the Nets and has to deal with Embiid down low. It’s certainly possible to have a good game against Embiid, but here’s where the issue lies with Collins – personal fouls.

Collins ranks 17th in the NBA with 3.28 personal fouls a game, which is right next to Embiid at 15th. That seems like it might cancel each other out but Embiid shoots the second most free throws in the league next to James Harden. The Philly big man was actually leading the category for a chunk of the year until Harden has been on this extend run without Chris Paul. Especially if Myles Turner is out for the Pacers again, there’s not many scenarios where I would pay more for Collins than I would for Domantas Sabonis.

Honorable Mention – Lauri Markkanen, Bulls

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Joel Embiid, Sixers 

This play isn’t without a little bit of risk, because the Hawks might not be able to keep it close. However, even in a blowout scenario like we just saw in Washington, Embiid can certainly display his upside. He scored 62 on DK en route to 35 real points and has very similar potential tonight against the Hawks.

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They have given up the eighth most DK points to centers and are bottom four in points in the paint allowed. Embiid averages 7.5 points a night from the paint and 22.9 rebounding chances a night, good for second in the league. I just don’t see how Atlanta can possibly contain him and you just need the game to stay within about 12-15 points until mid-way through the fourth quarter. If you don’t want to pay up at center, a player like Brook Lopez makes sense on the cheaper end. If you devote some salary to the position, Embiid has to be the man to go to.

Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert, Jazz

Fade – DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks 

Jordan will likely need to be on the court most of the night to try to deal with Karl Anthony-Towns and usually the opportunity would be enough to lead me to playing him a little bit. That won’t be the case this evening since there are so many center options and I don’t think Jordan’s price is really that worth it.

As a player, we know exactly what we’re going to get from Jordan. He rebounds the ball, hangs in the paint and dunks. That’s fine when his price is right but it’s climbed after two great games in his last four. In the meantime, he had two very mediocre games and given his current price, he needs to have a big game to justify it. I try my best to avoid players priced at their ceiling and I think that’s the case for Jordan tonight.

Honorable Mention – Tristan Thompson, Cavs

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