Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Value Plays – No Spida, No Green

Hey guys! Welcome back to another edition of NBA Draftkings Top Value Plays! Last night I took the night off and luckily it worked out since it was a pretty ugly 4 game slate. But luckily to kick our weekend off we get a 9 game slate to look forward to. So lets start it off right and find the right value plays so we can take down this huge slate. Good luck and cash out!

NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.

For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.

Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.

Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 10 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!

NBA Draftkings  – Top Tier

Donovan Mitchell vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Salary: $7,900 – Needs to score 39.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Tonight we’re targeting the lower salary price point guard, Donovan Mitchell, tonight and you may be wondering why. It’s because Utah Jazz has no other point guard besides the Spider really unless you count the newly signed Nazareth Mitrou-Long but that is a very risky play. But back to the spider, Donovan Mitchell,. on the season he is currently averaging 20 points, 3 assist, and 3 rebounds. Not what we were expecting for his sophomore year. The first time he faced the Los Angeles Lakers, Mitchell only recorded 4 points, 3 rebounds, and 1 assist. Don’t expect that again tonight.

Donovan Mitchell has faced the Lakers only four times in his career where he is averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assist. But like previously stated, there is no true backup for him tonight so expect him to play until that final buzzer hits, not really though. He has only returned value twice, almost three times, in his past five games. With all the somewhat bad stats from this season, don’t expect Mitchell to miss out on opportunities tonight.

Other Valuable Options

Stephen Curry vs. Chicago Bulls

Salary: $9,900 – Needs to score 49.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (64.3 for 6.5x value)

Steph Curry cost $2,000 more than Donovan Mitchell which hinders the roster build for tonight but he gets to face the Chicago Bulls who are tanking this season. Curry is currently averaging 29 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assist on the season and rarely misses opportunities to take over. While the Warriors are in a weird blender this season, Curry seems to always be at the top when it comes to scoring.

He has faced the Chicago Bulls 18 times in his career, averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assist against. When the two teams faced off earlier this season, Steph Curry recorded 23 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assist against them. Facing a much weaker Bulls team, Steph Curry should easily be able to return value, either by five times multiplier or even the six and a half multiplier.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

James Harden vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Salary: $12,500 – Needs to score 62.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (81.25 for 6.5x value)

Look even at the $12,500 price tag, it’s hard to say fade James Harden versus this struggling Cleveland Cavaliers team? Obviously if you hope for the 6.5x value tonight from Harden, it will be mighty hard to do. He has only broken the 80 fantasy points three times since December 13th. But the Cavaliers are currently allowing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. But Harden is averaging 34 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds. He’ll be hard to stop tonight. But with the slower pace for tonight’s game by the Cavaliers, the Rockets may just blow them out of the water tonight. So be cautious.

James Harden is currently averaging 25 points, 6 assist and 5 rebounds versus the Cavaliers in 18 games throughout his career. When they faced off the first time this season, Harden recorded 40 points, 13 assist, and 4 rebounds. Plus that was with a healthy Houston Rockets team. Once again, James Harden is hard to fade with this great match-up.

Other Valuable Options

Klay Thompson vs. Chicago Bulls 

Salary: $7,200 – Needs to score 36 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Who is here for a repeat performance because I know I am! Once again, Klay Thompson gets to face this, even worse, Chicago Bulls team that he already dominated earlier this season. In their first match-up, Klay Thompson recorded 52 points with 4 rebounds to accompany it. In 14 games against the Chicago Bulls, Thompson is averaging 21 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist. The Bulls are also allowing shooting guards to average 23 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game.

In his past five games, Klay Thompson has returned value in four of those games. We know exactly what Klay Thompson can do off just four dribbles and we know what he can do when his hand is hot, he’s a top play tonight if you avoid James Harden and his high price tag.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Ben Simmons vs. Atlanta Hawks

Salary: $8,900 – Needs to score 44.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

We have two great plays tonight at the small forward position and while many of us love Luka Doncic in his second match-up versus the Minnesota Timberwolves, I’m on Ben Simmons also. On the season, Ben Simmons is averaging 16 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assist, closing in on that triple double for the season. In four games versus the Atlanta Hawks, Simmons is currently averaging a near triple double with 16 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assist. Just too hard to pass up. Besides playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, the Atlanta Hawks are allowing small forwards to average 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. With the pace right and a close match-up, Ben Simmons could easily exceed his value tonight.

The one downside of Ben Simmons is that he has only hit value once in his past five games but two of those games were versus the Washington Wizards where both weren’t close each time. He has scored 39.3, 41.8, 55.3, 41.8, and 41.5 fantasy points. He has been close to value but with a team that he has a good history against, expect Simmons to be past value.

Other Valuable Options

Luka Doncic vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Salary: $8,400 – Needs to score 42 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Everyone’s favorite player tonight, Luka Doncic, gets to face a team that he has already dominated once in his rookie season. The first time that Doncic faced the Timberwolves, he recorded 26 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assist, exceeding his season average. On the season, Doncic is averaging 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assist per game.

This Minnesota team is allowing small forwards to average 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Another match-up that is hard to pass up. But just like our other small forward, Ben Simmons, he has only returned value two times in his past five games but they were his last two games, scoring 44.5 and 51 fantasy points. With a very similar salary price, you can go either way at the small forward position with these value plays.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Domantas Sabonis vs. New York Knicks

Salary: $7,500 – Needs to score 37.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Once again, the man that is quietly putting up numbers this season is one of my top plays. Domantas Sabonis is currently averaging 15 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist on the season, nearing that double double average. He gets to face the New York Knicks who are allowing power forwards to average 24 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. With a small sample size of just 7 games, Sabonis is average 12 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist versus the Knicks. When the two teams first met earlier this season, Sabonis put up 30 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist. In their second game, Sabonis put up just 13 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assist. Hard to pass up.

Damontas Sabonis is one that knows how to return value as he has done four times in his past five games, scoring 30.3, 45, 39.3, 38.3, and 35.8 fantasy points. Sabonis rarely gets burnt out also as he only averages 25 minutes per game but has been pushing that in his past few games. Lock him in as the top power forward play tonight that can return value easily.

Other Options Valuable

Serge Ibaka vs. Brooklyn Nets

Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value

We have big men versus Brooklyn once again on this 9 game slate! While we can go between Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka, we’re going Ibaka with his better history versus the Brooklyn Nets. Averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 2 assist per game while playing around 28 minutes. He has faced the Brooklyn Nets 19 times in his career, averaging almost a double double with 12 points, 8 rebounds, and almost 3 blocks.

The Nets are currently allowing power forwards to average 21 points and 10 rebounds per game. One downside to playing Ibaka is that it’s hard for him to return value as he has only done four times since December 9th. But with this being against the Brooklyn Nets, expect him to easily do it tonight.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Karl Anthony Towns vs. Dallas Mavericks

Salary: $10,200 – Needs to score 51 fantasy points or more to exceed value (66.3  for 6.5x value)

With a pretty good depth at the center position, Karl Anthony-Towns seems to have the best match-up tonight even with history on his side. KAT gets to face the Dallas Mavericks who he has a nice average against with a nice sample size also. Averaging a double double on the season with 22 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 assist. But in 12 games against the Mavericks, KAT is averaging 22 points, 12 rebounds and 3 assist. Wait, that’s also his season average, we’re in luck.

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Against centers, the Dallas Mavericks are allowing centers to average 21 points and 15 rebounds per game. In their first meeting, KAT didn’t put up a massive double double or even achieve it but he did record 31 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist. He has also returned value four times in his past five games, scoring 69.8, 55.5, 56.8, 67.5, and a low 32.8 fantasy points. Regarding centers, Karl Anthony-Towns is that guy to play if you are building around a center tonight.

Other Valuable Options

Clint Capela vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Salary: $7,600 – Needs to score 38 fantasy points or more to exceed value

A good $2,500 drop in salary, Clint Capela is in play tonight versus a weak Cleveland Cavaliers team. Averaging 17 points and 13 rebounds on the season, Capela is the next best option in this injured plagued Houston Rockets team besides James Harden. In a small sample size of just seven games, Capela is averaging 11 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks against the Cavs.

But on the defensive end, the Cavaliers are allowing Centers to average 21 points and 13 rebounds per game. When it came to their first match-up, Capela recorded a double double with 12 points and 10 rebounds. With a lower value to hit and much lower salary, Clint Capela could exceed his value easily tonight against a struggling defense.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis each and every day!