NFL DFS Best Plays To Win Update- Divisional Weekend
By John Fazio
Divisional weekend betting trends delve into the abnormal; this 4 game set commonly features a majority of public bets on the dogs. But does this carry over and also skew our NFL DFS best plays to win?
Public betting and NFL DFS roster alignments hinge on team perception, and while wild card weekend allows us to see 4 winning teams rise up, it also hides 4 other teams not playing which clouds our judgement.
That’s why this is the weekend nearly 60% of all bets placed are on underdogs, an oddity not seen at any other time or in any other sport. So how do we use this to roster our NFL DFS best plays to win?
The first question we need to answer is how much credence do we give public betting percentages in determining how to roster a unique NFL DFS best plays to win lineup. My answer is – less than normal.
Take for example the Eagles versus Saints, where currently 55% of all bets are on Philadelphia. Does this mean we can say Philly QB Foles will be placed in approximately 55% of all NFL DFS best plays lineups as compared to New Orleans QB Brees? Highly unlikely.
Another question to answer is how important is stacking, and how many players is optimal for us to stack from each team. My answer is that stacking far exceeds normal use in a short slate. The tournament winner needs to have touchdown combinations containing both QB and WR or TE.
Avoid the trap of rostering a QB with a RB that does not catch passes. This is a common DFS mistake and greatly hampers your chances of finishing on top. Each player needs to have a correlation with another.
My strategy lies in rostering 2 or 3 players from the same team. In the case of a possibly wild and high scoring affair such as the upcoming Colts vs Chiefs, 4 is possible including the QB, 2 WR’s and of course the stud TE. Now let’s get into our specific player recommendations.
Saturday’s NFL DFS Best Plays:
Andrew Luck ($6200) and Patrick Mahomes ($7000)
I don’t know how to get around rostering these 2 QB’s on the Saturday slate. Fading them seems like an option resulting in both being different and not winning.
However I don’t think either QB has a higher upside over the other. While Mahomes probably will throw more often, assuming a close game where neither side is compelled to throw all the time, he will be firing into a better defense than Luck. And Luck is just as accurate as Mahomes, both having thrown 7 touchdowns in the last 3 games.
I am going to be filling various lineups with combinations of these 2 QB’s and a host of corresponding WR’s.
Dak Prescott ($5200), Dallas
I believe he is worth a try here as opposed to Goff because while the Cowboy pass defense ranks 6th, the Rams rank 21st. He did post over 36 DraftKings points at the New York Giants 2 weeks ago throwing 4 touchdowns.
Prescott will most likely be the lowest owned Saturday QB, and he is the cheapest option to roster. Let’s not forget him completely.
Conversely I will be mostly fading Goff. Maybe this won’t work as he did toss 4 touchdown passes his last game against San Francisco and the Cowboy defense can be brutal on the road, however in his prior 3 games he threw a total of one.
Marlon Mack ($5800), Indianapolis
Of the top 4 starting RB’s on this Saturday slate, Ezekiel Elliot ($8200) and Todd Gurley ($8000) are the standout players that will garner most of the attention and the ownership. So why am I suggesting Mack?
For one, ponder the difference in cost. We need to make some cuts somewhere in order to leave room for our QB – WR combinations, and this pivot feels more like an outright winner than a concession.
Mack will be running into a very porous Chiefs defense that is ranked 31st in the league, while Elliot will be against the 6th best and Gurley the 19th best. The last 4 games have seen Mack average 22.47 DraftKings points per game while Elliot has averaged 24.95 and Gurley 22.52 in the same time-frame. Not enough of a difference to warrant that big of a price gap.
NFL DFS Best Plays – Kansas City WR’s
Tyreek Hill ($7400)
The obvious top choice especially with WR2 Watkins banged up and questionable. He gets the most target share, often receives the 100+ yards bonus, and while he’s priced much higher than his counterparts the difference in production truly is worth it.
Demarcus Robinson ($4100)
Should Watkins be ruled out, he is worth a dart throw at this price. He has seen only 8 targets resulting in 5 catches over the last 3 games combined, but 3 of those receptions have been touchdowns.
NFL DFS Best Plays – Colts WR’s:
T.Y. Hilton ($6700)
Another standout WR1 that for me is a must roster. Defenses try to stop this guy but so far to no avail. He comes with a ridiculously high 40 projected ceiling and we know how bad the Chiefs secondary can look.
Dontrelle Inman ($4800)
Very viable in this spot, and a nice under the radar stack with Luck. He has caught a touchdown in each of the last 3 games and looks very much in sync with his QB running his routes. A punt play that could end up to be the best on the weekend.
Chester Rogers ($3700)
WR3 but take a look – he’s coming into favor in the rotation and for good reason. Over the prior 3 games he’s seen 16 targets catching 14 of them with 1 touchdown. Should he find the end-zone for us he could be a very valuable sleeper.
NFL DFS Best Plays – Dallas WR’s
Amari Cooper ($6500)
Always secures a strong target share but is wildly inconsistent. Tournament option only. In fact we can roster all the Cowboy receivers as a tournament try but not as a core play. With RB Elliot and even QB Prescotts’ ability to score touchdowns, the upside of all Cowboy WR’s are limited.
NFL DFS Best Plays – Rams WR’s
Robert Woods ($5900) and Brandin Cooks ($5600)
Again tournament tries stacking with Goff only. Each one could turn in a big game or completely fade away. RB Gurley caps the Rams receiving corps.
NFL DFS Best Plays – TE’s
Eric Ebron ($5500), Indianapolis
All 4 TE’s on the Saturday slate are superior players, but Ebron seems to offer us the best value. He’s priced $1500 lower than Kelce while working against the worst defense. Kelce looks next best for value even at his elevated price-tag ($7000) as the Colts have had a lot of trouble stopping TE’s this season.
Nick Foles ($5400), Philadelphia
Maybe (probably) I am over-thinking this recommendation but let’s look at how this will play out and where we can turn to be independent while still being productive.
Drew Brees ($6700) is easily projected to be the most owned on the Sunday slate. That means most fantasy players will stack their lineups with a combination of Brees and the top 3 WR’s along with TE Gronkowski. He will throw into the 19th ranked defense and certainly appears as if many touchdowns will occur.
But what if those TD’s don’t happen, at least not in the passing game? We have seen so often games that look like they should go in 1 direction go the other. We end up tossing away our game tickets and at best sneaking into the mini payout zone of our fantasy tournaments.
Philip Rivers ($5700) looks difficult to roster. He’s posted a DraftKings average of just over 8 the last 3 games throwing 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. He was protected well by his offensive line last week against a fierce Ravens pass rush unit but still managed only a meager DraftKings performance.
Tom Brady ($5600) looks very playable, although the Charger defense has been hard to push around lately.
Foles has performed better at home but here he will be throwing into the leagues worst secondary, ranked 32nd. Against that very tough Bears defense last week, although he did throw 2 interceptions, he also fired 2 touchdowns rolling up 266 yards in the process. It’s unlikely the Eagle running game will find much success so he will be passing a lot.
Alvin Kamara ($7300), New Orleans
Not often do I recommend the top priced position player but this may be the spot. Melvin Gordon ($6200) looks playable but is not 100% healthy and the New England run defense is not a pushover.
James White ($4900) and Sony Michel ($4700) split snaps for New England muddying the waters there, and the Eagles RB’s will try to dent the 3rd ranked rush defense of the Saints who play even better at home.
I think Foles will be forced to throw many short 1st down passes to simulate the running game that way. Some will be check-downs or even designed plays to the RB’s but not enough to core a player.
NFL DFS Best Plays – Charger WR’s
This group is spread out over Keenan Allen ($6400), Mike Williams ($4700) and Tyrell Williams ($3900) with no real standout or foreseeable prospects for a big game. Allen has seen the most targets and would need to find the end zone twice to be an effective 20 DraftKings point producer.
NFL DFS Best Plays – New England WR’s
Julian Edelman ($6300)
A solid point producer and a very good cash game option. Lately he has routinely averaged at least 10 targets per game and finds the end zone as well. The other Patriot WR’s are inexpensive dart throws as TE Gronkowski and Edelman take the lions share of the targets.
This scenario is good for us as fantasy players – narrow down the receiving options and stack with Brady.
NFL DFS Best Plays – Eagle WR’s
Alshon Jeffery ($5800)
Here we have a wide range of options with 3 receivers in play and Ertz as a very viable target as well. Jeffery is the most promising; he was banged up last week but has participated in practice and is now considered probable. Golden Tate ($4600) is also probable.
Should Jeffery be ruled out or be limited, Nelson Agholor ($4300) would assume a prominent role and be a great roster. He receives 6-7 targets a game with opportunities for TD’s as well. He’s a worthy although less appealing roster even with Jeffery healthy.
NFL DFS Best Plays – New England WR’s
Ted Ginn JR ($4400)
After being out for 11 weeks due to injury Ginn returned and immediately became WR2, targeted 8 times, snaring 5 of them and accumulating 74 yards. He will be a major factor behind the well entrenched WR1 Michael Thomas ($7900) and should provide us salary relief with a great chance of success.
The only reason Ginn is priced this low results from his 11 week layoff where the price drops to minimum and his only 1 game return to the field. He should be priced much higher and is a true bargain.
NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – TE’s
Hunter Henry ($2800), Chargers
Henry is set to return after a lengthy injury absence and if active will probably gets some touchdown opportunities. He’s a very sure handed receiver and could fill out your roster as a viable sleeper play.
Zach Ertz ($5700), Eagles
Great tournament option as he could explode the slate himself. The Saints are somewhat tougher on TE’s which does dampen his expectations. Gronkowski ($4600) for the Patriots is also in that same category.
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