EPL DFS Breakdown – Sunday 1/13/19

This week’s Sunday only slate gives us only two games, but plenty of fantasy potential to look at in my EPL DFS Breakdown.  Bournemouth travel to Everton for a 9:15am ET kickoff, while two top 6 play later as Manchester United go to London to take on Tottenham. 

Both EPL DFS games have a goal total set at 3.0, but if I was choosing which game would produce more goals, I would take the early game.  Everton and Bournemouth are both leaky on defense, but they do not struggle scoring goals.  Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe perfectly summed up the recent history between the two sides here:

Everton are the largest favorite on the slate, however the spread in both games is 0.5, so Vegas is expecting tight competition all around.  Since we only have two games on the slate, the rest of my breakdown is going to be team-by-team instead of by position like I would for a larger slate.

Everton – EPL DFS Breakdown

Dominic Calvert-Lewin ($7,500) only has three goals to his name this season and is nothing more than a risky, low-floor, low-ceiling punt on this slate.  The parts of the Everton attack that you want to consider are their midfielders.  Richarlison ($9,500) and Gylfi Sigurdsson ($9,000) are both viable on this smaller slate in what could be a high-scoring game.  Bournemouth have allowed the second most goals on the road this season at 2.3 per game.  Richarlison and Sigurdsson are probably both best left for GPP pivots off popular Tottenham and United stars.

A full stack of this game should include Everton’s most relevant defender from a fantasy perspective: Lucas Digne ($6,000).  Digne has shown some incredible attacking ability this season, especially recently.  The open nature of this game should allow Digne opportunities to rack up both attacking and defending stats at a high rate.

Like I mentioned, this could be a high-scoring game which doesn’t bode well for Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford ($5,000).  However, none of the GKs on this slate are in great spots, so if Everton can clean up their defense and shut Bournemouth’s attack down, Pickford could have a decent game.

Bournemouth – EPL DFS Breakdown

The Bournemouth side of this game isn’t as straight forward as Everton, especially given their injury mess.  Callum Wilson ($9,000) and Josh King ($7,500) both were unable to play last weekend in their FA Cup match, and they’ll face fitness tests during warm-ups to see if they can play.  New signing Dominic Solanke ($8,500) is also likely out, leaving Lys Mousset ($6,000) the 22-year-old Frenchman likely to start.  He hasn’t started a game in the EPL this year, but he did start in that FA Cup game.  If he starts, he’s worth a look as cheap exposure to this game and his salary will help you fit more studs.

Bournemouth’s injury woes continued when breakout midfielder Ryan Fraser ($8,500) was limping after their game last Saturday.  If he proves healthy, I would consider him another top pivot off the chalky second game.  In his last EPL game, Fraser put up 46 FDP in a 3-3 draw.  In a game that could end similarly high-scoring, Fraser could continue his nice play.

David Brooks ($8,000) is the other player I would consider here in GPPs, with both Junior Stanislas ($6,000) and Dan Gosling ($6,000) viable on a small slate but only as salary-savers.

Bournemouth defender Nathan Ake ($6,000) has scored in his last two EPL games, but that is not something I would count on again.  If you want to try your luck, I won’t stop you, but Steve Cook ($5,000) is more salary-friendly with a similar floor.

Asmir Begovic ($5,000) is not someone I am considering on this slate with a tough matchup plus Bournemouth’s defensive struggles on the road.

Tottenham _ EPL DFS Breakdown

This is a huge game for Tottenham against Manchester United.  They’re just barely hanging in title contention right now, so expect Harry Kane ($13,000) to be at his best.  He’s the top forward on this slate and shouldn’t be overlooked in cash games.

Son Heung-Min ($10,500) is one of the hottest fantasy players in England right now with 40 FDP average over his last four EPL games.  His price has risen over $2,000 in the blink of an eye.  The matchup isn’t great, but Son’s play has been stellar as he looks to make an impact with Tottenham before he leaves for international duty after this game.

It is more cost-effective to roster Christian Eriksen ($9,500) who is also playing well averaging just over 26 FDP per game in his last eight games.  There isn’t really much reason to choose Dele Alli ($10,000) when you have Eriksen for $500 cheaper and with a safer floor.

Last year, Kieran Trippier ($6,500) was one of the most sought-after fantasy defenders on a weekly basis, but he has not been the same this year.  He has no goals or assists in his last six EPL starts and only has five chances created in that span.  He’s a full fade for me.

Toby Alderweireld ($5,500) is the first Tottenham defender I would consider in this game.  The center-back has been super consistent this season, only having one game where he did not reach double digit FDPs.  Danny Rose ($5,000) is worth a punt in my opinion and Davinson Sanchez ($4,500) is unrosterable right now.

Hugo Lloris ($6,000) is the most expensive GK on the slate and is also in the best spot on paper.  Manchester United are not as good on the road as they are at home, plus Tottenham surely realize how much this game means so Lloris could have a nice fantasy output.  There isn’t any clear-cut #1 GK option on this slate, so just trust whatever your gut tells you and whatever fits your lineup best.

Manchester United – EPL DFS Breakdown

Manchester United forwards have been ridiculously hit-or-miss this season.  FanDuel has Marcus Rashford ($11,000) and Anthony Martial ($11,500) as expected starters, but I’ve seen nothing ruling Romelu Lukaku ($10,500) or Alexis Sanchez ($10,000) out.  Sanchez made his EPL return on January 2nd with an assist in a 15.6 FDP outing, and added another assist three days later.  Away against Tottenham is not a good matchup and none of the United forwards are in great form.  If you’re going to pay up for a forward, just make it Harry Kane.

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Paul Pogba ($11,000) is officially a go for Sunday.  He welcomed new manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer with back-to-back braces and has played well in all four games under Ole averaging 45.1 FDP.  Pogba will likely come with inflated ownership compared to top midfielders from Bournemouth @ Everton but fading him is definitely a viable strategy.  Ander Herrera ($8,000) is a cheaper way to get exposure to Manchester United’s midfield, but his upside is limited.

Luke Shaw ($5,000) is my top United defender on this slate and it really isn’t close.  He’s cheaper than normal for no apparent reason.  In fact, he’s cheap enough to use as a salary-saving piece to get more studs.  If you need the extra $500 to get a stud you like, Phil Jones ($4,500) can help you do that.

Normally on a larger slate, I would not consider David de Gea ($5,500) in this spot.  However, with only four GKs available, you can make a case for him.  I’d rather pay up for Lloris or down for Pickford, but if you want de Gea, I won’t argue.

That’s all the analysis I have for this slate right now.  Hopefully the Saturday slate is going well for anyone who used my EPL DFS Breakdown for that slate.  Check my Twitter account (@vdray5) for updates or last-minute advice!