Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Saturday January 12

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We have an intriguing six game slate on tap featuring one game that just went bonkers two days ago!

The big elephant in the room is probably going to be the Spurs and Thunder facing off once again. We just saw this game two nights ago, and if you didn’t have a significant piece of it, you didn’t do very well. I struggle with how to gauge it. Even putting aside the additional production that double overtime afforded, this was still a game chock full of goodness. Let’s see how it stacks up against the other five games in front of us in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Derrick Rose, Wolves

Point guard is really fascinating tonight. If the Nuggets are still missing Gary Harris and Will Barton, I really like Jamal Murray. You can easily go to Russell Westbrook, coming off his mammoth game. The De’Aaron Fox versus Kemba Walker matchup could be a great one for both players but my favorite play of the night at this spot is Rose. He made his way back to the lineup and played 27 minutes last night, providing 21 real points.

Provided he doesn’t sit on the back to back(not announced, but it is possible given his history), he should be good for around 26-28 minutes on the low end and that might be enough. This game has a 234 total as we stand and only a two point spread. That’s what we chase in fantasy and with the pace and the lack of defensive ability that New Orleans displays, we want pieces from this game. The Pelicans give up the third most DK points and second most real points to point guards. Sign me up for some vintage Rose tonight.

Honorable Mention – De’Aaron Fox, Hornets

Fade – Kemba Walker, Hornets 

I want to be very clear – I will likely have at least one lineup with Kemba in it. He’s got a 50 point game in there somewhere and he does get another spectacular spot tonight since the Kings can’t guard anyone and play at the fastest pace in basketball. The issue is Kemba has been so bad lately no matter what the spot, there is too much risk involved to make him a core play.

He had a three game span where he crushed for well over 40 Dk points and it looked like he was getting back to form like he had for the opening portion of the season. The he’s thrown out five straight duds, three of which came against teams in the bottom eight against point guards. I’m going to pass on Kemba for the most part, but will have some exposure in case he proves me wrong.

Honorable Mention – Kris Dunn, Bulls

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Jeremy Lamb, Hornets 

I might not want to pay the premium for Kemba but one player that I will happily use from this matchup is Lamb. Even coming off a back to back of their own, I think the Hornets should be able to keep this a game throughout and that means Lamb is likely to shoot the ball at least 20 times with a ceiling for more given the pace.

For their part, Sacramento gives up the sixth most real points to shooting guards and that’s right up Lamb’s alley. Lamb has seen a nice uptick this year in his production as he’s taken over the number two role for the Hornets behind Walker and the price tags are so different, to me it makes sense to just play Lamb. You get a piece of this game(which might not have a total quite yet but it will be high) and a good matchup. Granted, every part of the Kings defense is a good matchup but Lamb under $6,000 on both sites, he’s a very nice mid-range play.

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell has been tearing it up for the Jazz and he shouldn’t stop tonight. I just didn’t want to use him three articles in a row, but you know what to do.

Fade – Evan Fournier, Magic

This one might be a little bit of an easy one but I can’t fathom playing Fournier tonight. He’d been on the downward trend as it was and then laid one of the biggest eggs I’ve ever seen from a player that had 37 minutes on the court. He managed three(3!!) fantasy points through the entire game in Utah and that was after three sub-par games ahead of that. Now he gets to take on one of the better defenses in basketball, the Boston Celtics.

What little value Fournier does have is based on scoring the basketball, and his ceiling games are linked to it in general terms. Well, the Celtics aren’t very likely to allow that to happen because not only are they fifth in DK points given up tot shooting guards, they rank fifth in real points given up as well. There’s no real reason to go after Fournier tonight despite the sub $5,000 price on DK.

Honorable Mention – Buddy Hield, Kings

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Nikola Mirotic, Pelicans 

The small forward aspect of this play is only on FanDuel, but the play remains very solid on DraftKings as well. Depending on which site you play, Mirotic doesn’t exceed $6,000 and that’s just too cheap given the situation he’s in this evening. The Wolves have been crushed by small forwards all season long, giving up the third most DK points, seventh most real points, fourth most rebounds and the second most assists. Those are some terrible numbers that Mirotic should be able to take advantage of.

The one small fear is the minutes since he’s still very fresh off a longer-term injury. Mirotic saw 21 minutes in his first game back and should be at least around 25 tonight, with maybe even a little more. During his time on the court so far this season, Mirotic has a 23.3 percent usage and a 1.14 FPPM. It’s hard for me to see a path that Mirotic would disappoint this evening, although there is a small bit of risk with the minutes.

Honorable Mention – Paul George, Thunder

Fade – Will Barton, Nuggets 

It appears that Barton will make his return to the lineup tonight after missing almost the entire season due to a groin injury. That does not mean that he should be in yours, however because there is no chance he sees much more than 15-18 minutes. What’s a little odd is he’s priced like he’s not missed much time and it just feels like a trap play.

It’s really kind of a shame too because the Suns are a great matchup in and of itself. If it was a normal night, I would be happy to use Barton. Without knowing what kind of minutes or role he comes back into makes things tough. Especially on FD, Barton is more expensive than Joe Ingles which is patently ridiculous. Don’t fall for it and just play Ingles yet again if you’re in that range.

Honorable Mention – Jae Crowder, Jazz

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Anthony Davis, Pelicans 

I’ll take the low hanging fruit because I think Davis is the top overall play on the slate tonight, even better than Russell Westbrook against the Spurs again. Davis faces off against the Wolves and we’ve already touched on the spread and total. In addition to that, Davis has a great history against Karl Anthony-Towns. In 10 career games, he’s averaging roughly 30/9/2 and that would be perfectly fine at his price tag after you calculate in bonuses and and blocks/steals.

Over the course of six games, there should be plenty of value to fit in Davis without having to sacrifice much and I would be looking to have him in near every lineup tonight if you play multiples.  Davis is just a monster in the paint(and everywhere else) as he averages 10.1 points in the paint this season. Towns is going to have his hands full all game long and it’s hard to see how they slow down Davis tonight.

Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant, Thunder

Fade – LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs

This bit me once already this week but I’m back to the well – I don’t want a large piece of Aldridge tonight. I avoided him like the plague Thursday because he’s usually been terrible in back to back settings this season. Thursday night was a massive exception to the rule, as he scored a career high in points and a season high in blocks, which are extra nice on FD. Aldridge might well have a nice game but he’s not going to be worth his price tonight.

I will say that power forward is a spot that the Thunder haven’t defended well via the DK points against metric, as they are bottom 10. Aldridge definitely commands a significant chunk of the offense next to DeMar DeRozan but I can’t find it in me to pay fo him. On DK, his price jumped by almost $1,000 and that is typically a signal to pass when it’s a player that has a stable price and isn’t a role player filling in for an injured player. There are too many players within $500 in salary in both directions that I would rather play tonight. If Steven Adams misses for the Thunder, I’ll be more inclined to use Aldridge.

Honorable Mention – Jayson Tatum, Celtics

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Rudy Gobert, Jazz 

The big man for the jazz is on his own back to back, but don’t that concern you too much. He’s averaged close to 30 minutes in that situation so far this season and that would be plenty of minutes to hammer the Chicago front court. Last night we saw Kevan Looney for the Warriors play just 23 minutes and put up over 30 DK points. When a role player like that is having that type of success, Gobert should be perfectly fine tonight.

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Gobert ranks second in points in the paint, fourth in paint touches and also sees the fifth most rebounding chances per game. The Bulls are bottom six in points and rebounds given up in the paint and Gobert played just his season average in minutes last night. Since he wasn’t extended in any fashion, I would expect roughly around 30 again tonight and Chicago has very little chance of stopping him around the basket tonight. If he saw a higher usage, I would say he has a shot at a 20/20 special but I don’t think that’s quite realistic.

Honorable Mention – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings

Fade – Al Horford, Celtics 

This one is pretty simple and it’s just Horford isn’t seeing enough minutes to make him fantasy relevant unless it’s some crazy good matchup. Since he’s not getting that tonight, I have a hard time paying what should be a reasonable price for him. Horford has seen more games under 20 minutes than over 30 in his past 10, and the Magic are tough to boot.

Orlando is currently allowing just the 14th least DK points to centers but also allow the sixth fewest real points. Nikola Vucevic is also in the top 15 in paint touches this year, which could represent a serious issue for Horford down low. That’s not something I would generally say because Horford has always been rock solid but something doesn’t appear right. Maybe his knee isn’t fully healed, but I’m out on Horford until we see the minutes start to come up to a more reasonable level.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets because I’m not sure the Suns stay close without Devin Booker

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