Main DraftKings NBA Picks January 12: Westbrook or A.D.?

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 11: Tomas Satoransky #31 of the Washington Wizards passes the ball while being guarded by George Hill #3 of the Milwaukee Bucks in the first half at Capital One Arena on January 11, 2019 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /

Main DraftKings NBA Picks January 12: Westbrook or A.D.?

We have a split Saturday for our DraftKings NBA picks. There are eight games today, but two of them tip earlier. We have a solid six game night slate here with a Spurs/Thunder game that was insane on Thursday night. Will it happen again?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,800): Westbrook put up a massive 83.25 DraftKings points on the Spurs in the double overtime game on Thursday. There’s no reason not to pay up again here. Westbrook probably isn’t going to hit 80 again, but 60’s are a strong possibility. However, there are other good possibilities here as well. Is Westbrook the best option?

Kemba Walker ($8,400): I’ve been off of Kemba for a while now because the production has just not been there. Walker hasn’t come within five points of 5x value since December 29th, and is price is still this high. He is way overpriced, but he’s playing the Kings. If Kemba is going to go off anytime soon, it’s here, and I can guarantee low ownership.

Honorable Mention:

De’Aaron Fox ($7,900): For those of you into wiser investments, this is the place to go. Fox at least hits value here and there. Fox hasn’t dropped a 60 yet, so his upside is technically lower than Kemba, but we all know which one is more likely to help you move up the leaderboard tonight.

Jamal Murray ($7,400): This is a smash spot for Murray. He has already played the Suns twice this year. They never want to see him again. Murray has 112.75 DraftKings points in 76 minutes against the Suns this year. Harris even played in one of those. The only thing that may chase me off of Murray today is if both Barton and Harris return. It seems unlikely that both would return and play enough minutes to hold Murray under 40. He’s close to a lock for 6x value, and could wind up with much more.

Jeff Teague ($6,600): Right now, I still see Teague as a touch overpriced. Saunders isn’t going to run anyone like Thibodeau did. His minutes are going to be in the low 30’s going forward. However, in as fast of a game as this promises to be, Teague can still hit value at this price. He was good for 42 DraftKings points in the first meeting. I would bet he’s still in the mid 30’s tonight.

Dark Horses:

Derrick White ($5,400): White had the best game of his young career against this same team on Thursday night. White racked up 46.75 DraftKings points in that one. It’s unreasonable to expect another double overtime game, but this should be a close one and could be in triple digits again. It was on Thursday even before overtime. I like White at this price. He should come close to 30 DraftKings points at the least.

Patty Mills ($3,800): Mills put up another monster line for the price on Thursday. Mills has at least 24 DraftKings points in each of the last four games. White finally broke out of his mini slump on Thursday, but Mills is going to see enough run to make him worth our while tonight.

Grayson Allen ($3,000): Allen could see a quite a few minutes here since he is enough of a ballhandler to successfully back up Mitchell. This is a more productive dart than Mitrou-Long last night because Allen has seen action in 16 games with the Jazz this year. He should become a decent part of the rotation tonight. I would say he plays around 20 minutes or so, which could provide quite a bit of production for the price.

My pick: Murray(PG), Mills(G), Allen(UTIL); White(PG), Mills(G)

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – JANUARY 05: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz reacts late in the game while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on January 05, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Utah won the game 110-105. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Donovan Mitchell ($8,500): The price is getting up there, but it’s still nowhere near where Mitchell’s production has been with Rubio and Exum out. Mitchell is the only healthy point guard. This team had O’Neale running the point last night for a while. Mitchell has 109.5 DraftKings points over the last two games with Utah having pretty much no other guards. Mitchell is getting 50 again, and we are still getting a bargain.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,300): DeRozan had a nice 46 DraftKings point effort against the Thunder on Thursday, and it was one of the lowest totals in that game. However, it is also arguably the most likely to be reciprocated tonight. DeRozan put up those numbers despite a ghastly 7-22 from the field in 49 minutes. If he hits a few more shots, DeRozan could easily end up at this total again.

Honorable Mention:

Jrue Holiday ($7,800): Predictably, Holiday’s production dipped with the return of Elfrid Payton. The production tapered off, but it is still consistent. Better yet, Holiday is consistently right around 5x value. He is a cash game staple right now. I can see using Holiday in GPP formats, but he doesn’t have nearly the upside he did with Payton out.

Derrick Rose ($6,100): Rose had a strong return to the court last night with 34.75 DraftKings points in 28 minutes. Since Rose was out for about two weeks, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Minnesota sat him out tonight to make sure the ankle is fine. If Rose is in, give him a go. This will be a nice up-tempo game and he will get plenty of chances if he can play.

Zach LaVine ($6,100): If you are worried about Rose, you can always pivot right to LaVine. Utah is tough on perimeter defense, but they are really thin at guard in this one. This takes a leap of faith, but so do most of these. LaVine still takes a ton of shots even with the Bulls healthy. I don’t expect him to fall completely flat.

Dark Horses:

Jeremy Lamb ($5,500): Lamb’s price didn’t really drop while he was injured, so the last couple of games I have felt he was overpriced. He may still be here, but Lamb has a better matchup than he has over the last two games. The Kings are going to pace up this game. Most of the team has been cold, but it doesn’t mean they are going to stop running. That should give Lamb some more shot attempts.

Terrance Ferguson ($3,600): Ferguson has gone for 48.25 DraftKings points over the last two games. This is a high water mark for Ferguson. The minutes are there for him, but being a shooting guard in Oklahoma City is like being a punter for Alabama. They are to be seen and not heard. Ferguson is worth a punt while he is playing well if you need the cap relief, but you really shouldn’t with all of the Utah value.

Marco Belinelli ($3,400): Belinelli has been getting more minutes lately, but we know the Spurs’ minutes are fluid situations. However, Belinelli hasn’t had a total dud since before Christmas. He is going to get you something decent and wont kill your lineups. That’s about all we can ask for in a value punt.

My pick: Mitchell(SG); Mitchell(SG)

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 05: Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Minnesota Timberwolves fouls Montrezl Harrell #5 of the LA Clippers on a charge as he shoots during a 120-109 Clipper win at Staples Center on November 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Paul George ($9,500): Compared to all of the other numbers launched in this game and that more than 300 combined points were scored, George’s numbers were rather pedestrian, especially when we consider the price. George put up a solid 48 DraftKings points, but it took him 47 minutes to do it. Westbrook is the safer option, but he is also quite a bit more expensive.

Andrew Wiggins ($7,000): I do have a feeling that the return of Rose is going to hurt Wiggins some, but he has been one of the biggest winners of the Thibodeau firing. Wiggins is still playing the most minutes under Saunders, so that gives him some time with the second unit as well. The scoring seems like it will be there. We know it will be against New Orleans tonight. After that, we may have to be more picky with deploying Wiggins.

Honorable Mention:

T.J. Warren ($6,800): We have seen the evolution of the Suns over the last month or so. Previously when Booker was out, Warren would drop a 50 and that would be it. Now the Suns are getting production from several different spots with Booker out. Warren still gets a solid uptick, but not to the point where you can say he’s worth the price. The thing that moves me back to Warren is Denver’s strength against guards on defense. Warren should have the most clear path to value, but I kind of want to leave this whole thing alone.

Joe Ingles ($6,000): Ingles racked up 38 DraftKings points last night in only 31 minutes. None of their point guards are back tonight either, so expect another big night from Ingles. He is a lock play tonight on a slate that doesn’t have a lot of them. Mitchell and Ingles are in every lineup I’m going to make though. There is no question.

Marcus Morris ($5,700): Morris has back to back 30+ DraftKings points games while only playing 52 minutes combined in both of them. This kind of per minute production always makes Morris a favorite target among DFS players. I don’t know that I would make it a priority to attack the Orlando front, especially with all of the other places to go, but I would use Morris or Tatum as salary relief. Probably not both though.

Dark Horses:

Josh Jackson ($5,600): Jackson has been a monster with Booker out, posting 102 DraftKings points over the last three games. This is well beyond his price point. If Booker is out, which it looks like he will be, it’s time to lock in Jackson again.

Kelly Oubre ($4,400): Oubre continues to be one of the cheaper fill ins for Booker. He has played 63 minutes in the two games without Booker, so the minutes are there. The production has been as well with 68 DraftKings points in that span. As we saw when Oubre was in Washington, he can put up good numbers when given run. He is a good value play here.

Royce O’Neale ($3,900): O’Neale was one of the few that played most of the game in a blowout last night. He had to. The Jazz didn’t have much of a choice. He is going to continue to get a lot of run so long as the backcourt is as injured as it is. O’Neale isn’t the lock that Mitchell and Ingles are, but at $3,900, you can’t hardly pass this up. It’s like finding something you don’t need in a bargain bin. You may not know exactly what you are going to do with it, but you can’t pass it up for the price.

My pick: O’Neale(SF), Ingles(F), Jackson(PF); Jackson(SF), Ingles(F)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – FEBRUARY 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dunks the ball in the second half of the 2017 NBA All-Star Game at Smoothie King Center on February 19, 2017 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,700): Davis put up 60.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting, and that is one of his lowest point totals of the season. I shouldn’t have to talk you into Davis on a slate like this. If you are planning on stacking the healthy Jazz players, you can probably only use one of Davis or Westbrook. Choose wisely, though I don’t think their totals will be that far apart.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,100): Aldridge, who has been a dog in back to backs for about two years now, went bonkers on the Thunder on Thursday with 78.75 DraftKings points. He had just 60.25 in the two prior games combined. Don’t expect a repeat from Aldridge, though I expect higher ownership from people thinking he will. Aldridge’s 56 point outburst was just as many as his three prior games combined. It’s called a career game for a reason, people. Keep that in mind. Same thing with Jerami Grant. The Spurs still aren’t a good matchup for him on paper.

Honorable Mention:

Julius Randle ($7,300): Randle has lost some production with Mirotic back, but his price is also down to the point where it should be for his production. This is a good spot for Randle against the Thunder, especially in what is a barren middle tier at the position. The flexibility on DraftKings does help though. You may not get forced into Randle, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if you did.

Nikola Mirotic ($5,900): Mirotic put up 25 DraftKings points in his first game action in a month in 22 minutes against Cleveland. This is another favorable matchup for Mirotic, but I doubt he plays the 33 minutes that he did in the first meeting. I would say that Mirotic’s minutes would be capped at about 25, but he could still get close to value here. If his shot is falling, Mirotic could do even more.

Dark Horses:

Jayson Tatum ($5,800): Tatum is finally down to a price where we can comfortably use him. Tatum has been between 26 and 32 DraftKings points in five of the last six games. I see Tatum as more of a cash game play, but he is worth using in GPP’s as well. I’m not really crazy about any part of this game besides maybe Vucevic though. Both defenses are pretty good.

Marvin Williams ($5,300): Williams is in a good spot again going against the weak Kings front. He didn’t do much against Portland, but the going is going to be much easier for him tonight. Williams is a solid value play since the minutes are there. Charlotte is missing a few pieces up front, most notably Zeller, so they need the size of Williams here.

Derrick Favors ($5,100): Favors put up 36.25 DraftKings points on the Lakers last night. He remains an important piece of the Utah rotation, and has another good matchup against the Bulls here. I really can’t rule out a Utah stack. Their prices are too low in most cases, and I don’t know that a blowout is inevitable. The Bulls are very rested after getting blasted by the Warriors on Thursday. The Jazz got the starters some rest last night, but this bench is going to be overworked again.

My pick: Davis(C); Tatum(PF)

DENVER, COLORADO – JANUARY 5: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets drives against Bismack Biyombo #8 of the Charlotte Hornets in the first quarter at the Pepsi Center on January 5, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,800): Are you afraid of a Denver blowout killing the value of Jokic? The past tells us not to be. Jokic has played 68 minutes in two games against the Suns this year. He has a staggering 133.75 DraftKings points, which is almost two full points per minute. I wouldn’t be afraid of Jokic here. At all. He may even score as well as Davis or Westbrook.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,900): Towns is not on the injury report, but we do kind of have to keep an eye on this. Towns has ravaged the Pelicans for 123.25 DraftKings points in 70 minutes in the first two games this year. However, with Towns possibly having a tender ankle and with the team running a new scheme, can he live up to those lofty numbers? There is reason to be skeptical.

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Honorable Mention:

Nikola Vucevic ($8,800): Vucevic put up 48.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Boston this year. With Baynes out, there is a good chance that Vucevic puts up big numbers again. I don’t think he outscores Jokic, but you could roll a three Nikola stack here tonight if you build theme lineups. Not only will you be clever, but you should get a good return out of it as well.

Rudy Gobert ($8,200): There are so many good options at center that Rudy may go mostly unnoticed. He really shouldn’t. This is a great matchup against the Bulls. Gobert may have the best matchup of any center tonight. This is definitely worth looking into, and I could justify him over anyone but Jokic, and even then when you take salary into account, Gobert could still wind up being the better deal.

Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,900): With all of the guard struggles for the Kings lately, it’s easy to miss the back to back 40’s from WCS. This is another good matchup against Charlotte, especially if the Kings guards struggle again.

Dark Horses:

Wendell Carter ($5,800): This is a good matchup for Carter on paper. Of course, the Warriors were too. The Bulls were a complete disaster last night. To the point where I don’t really want to play any of them against Utah. However, I still need to point out the ones that are in favorable matchups so you can make your own decision. Carter is in that class, but I don’t know that I trust him. On the bright side, the Jazz may be too undermanned on a back to back to blow them out.

Willy Hernangomez ($4,100): As has been the case for the duration of Zeller’s absence so far, you can use whichever Charlotte center fits your budget. However, Willy is cheaper by a couple of hundred, and his numbers have been better than Biyombo over the last three or four games. If I were choosing one and price weren’t a factor, I would go with Willy anyway.

Richaun Holmes ($3,800): Holmes has been a beast lately, racking up 67 DraftKings points in 46 minutes over the last two games. This isn’t exactly a favorable spot for Holmes, but it’s not a bad one either. He’s not going to hit 30 again, but Holmes isn’t priced like it either. 20 is a good possibility though.

My pick: N/A; Jokic(C), Hernangomez(UTIL)

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