NFL Divisional Round picks against the spread

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

This is the early Saturday game? Really? This is a great matchup where Andrew Luck, once considered the best young quarterback in the game, goes up against the player who took that distinction away from him. The Colts come off a huge win against their division rival Texans, but this is a different beast. They don’t have the tape of this team’s impressive offense going up against their defense. They may have been able to keep Watson at bay, but Patrick Mahomes is a whole different animal.

This Chiefs offensive will have to go shot for shot with this Colts team, mainly because of the question marks surrounding their defense. The Chiefs have their own demons, as they haven’t won a Divisional Game since 1993. Never with Alex Smith, never with Trent Green, not since Joe Montana was leading the huddle has this team advanced to an AFC Championship game. Obviously, this is the first time we’ve seen a team led by the dynamic Mahomes in the playoffs, but multiple players on this team have felt that disappointment.

This will really come down to one thing: Can the Chiefs get a stop? The Colts offense is playing as well as we’ve ever seen them. Luck finds ways to get everyone involved, and Marlon Mack is keeping everyone honest. However, this isn’t just any offense. The Chiefs have Tyreek Hill, the league’s best weapon, and a two-headed running back combo of Spencer Ware and Damien Williams. This Colts defense is better, but not good enough to keep up. The Chiefs won’t do much to stop Luck, but will fall into a few good plays, which will be just enough to cover.

Indianapolis 24 Kansas City 30

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (-7)

Clearly, Las Vegas doesn’t have much faith in this Dallas Cowboys team. The NFC East was once considered the worst division in the NFL, but now they have two teams in the final eight. Ezekiel Elliott will have some extra motivation, because the guy considered the best running back in the league is on the other sideline. A motivated Zeke is a scary Zeke. Dak Prescott needs to minimize his mistakes, or this could turn into a laugher. However, if he can just do his job and put balls on hands, then this could be a major upset.

That is, unless the Rams find some of that magic that led them to being the scariest team in the league for the first three months. It was a rough December, but lots of teams run out of gas, but fill back up for the playoffs. Others, on the other hand, never get that gas back. Which team is the Rams? One of the underrated aspects of this Rams team is they keep Jared Goff clean, while terrorizing the other team. They have 0.5 sacks more per game than their opponents.

That will be the key to this matchup. Prescott won’t have a hot second to think with Aaron Donald coming in hot. If they can knock him off his game, then it will cause him to lose confidence. Once that happens, they can focus on holding Zeke down. Todd Gurley will need to be healthy, so they can control the clock and ask very little of Goff, who hasn’t been in this situation in a long time. There will be a ton of Cowboys fans there, but they won’t be leaving happy.

Dallas 14 Los Angeles (R) 27