Yahoo NFL DFS – Daily Fantasy Football: Week Nineteen
By Raju Byfield
Rizzla discusses his week week nineteen Yahoo NFL DFS Daily Fantasy Football: NFL Champion of Champions Daily Fantasy Football lineup.
Yahoo NFL DFS – Daily Fantasy Football: Week Nineteen
Who will be the Champion of Champions?
It’s round two of Yahoo’s Champion of Champions free roll for Yahoo league winners, and with the top two teams from each conference now entering the fray, the player pool just got supercharged. This is the week for owners to create a gap in the contest, as next week we will have only four teams playing, leading to less variance in lineups, and thus a diminished opportunity to pull away points wise by way of a truly differentiated lineup.
As always I like to begin by reflecting on my lineup mistakes from the previous week with the intent to learn a lesson from them. My biggest blunders of week eighteen ended up being Doug Baldwin, Gus Edwards and Adam Shaheen.
Doug Baldwin fell flat on his face in the wild card round despite spending most of the game lined up in the slot against Jourdan Lewis. Baldwin saw six targets, which ended up being a solid 22 percent target share, but managed only 32 yards receiving. Baldwin had a solid season, when taking into account he played injured the entire year, but was too much of a liability this season as far as DFS is concerned. Baldwin could shape up as a 2019 week one bargain, so keep his name in mind for one of the most exciting weeks of the upcoming Yahoo DFS fantasy football season.
Gus Edwards had a forgettable wild card round outing, as he managed just 23 yards on eight attempts for a measly 2.9 yards per carry. In a contest where the Ravens were held to just 90 total rushing yards Edwards simply could not get it going on the ground. Averaging 89.8 rushing yards per game as a starter and with a solid enough eleven point fantasy outing against the Chargers in the regular season, Edwards looked to have a solid floor. While Edwards was one of the top runners in the league during his time as starter, the fact that he is not an asset in the passing game limits his fantasy ceiling — and opens up a gaping chasm in place of his fantasy floor, when and if the Ravens fall behind in a contest. Edwards will likely continue to be a high yards per carry runner in the future, but unless he develops some chops in the passing game he will likely remain a volume or game script dependent fantasy option.
Adam Shaheen was a last minute pivot due to Trey Burton being declared inactive. Shaheen did have theoretical upside with increased snaps, in what could have potentially been a larger role, but only managed 13 yards off of three receptions in 50 snaps. The main lesson learned here is that Mitch Trubisky and Shaheen do not share the same type of rapport that the sophomore quarterback has developed with Burton. This is likely due to Burton having more plays designed where he functions as a higher priority read when the two shared the field.
For this week’s NFL Champion of Champions free roll I went back to my usual strategy of filling defense, tight end and quarterback first by identifying the best potential values and then doing the same for both running back and receiver.
Yahoo NFL DFS Daily Fantasy Football: Week Nineteen Picks
Philip Rivers ($25 Salary; 8th salary rank; 4th personal rank)
Philip Rivers looks like a solid upside play this weekend against a New England Patriots defense giving up the eighteenth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Patriots have held opposing quarterbacks to 260 passing yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game on the season but that number jumps to 286.6 yards and 2.3 touchdowns per game when they face QB1’s. Rivers, like much of the Chargers offense, has been inconsistent this year from a fantasy standpoint but luckily for fantasy owners in his last two road contests with totals over 47.5, Rivers is averaging 22.24 fantasy points. Rivers presents solid upside at a value $25 price tag and is worth a look for owners who may wish to go heavier at other positions.
Ezekiel Elliott ($33 Salary; 2nd salary rank; 2nd personal rank)
Ezekiel Elliott is set to ‘eat’ this weekend as he squares off against a Los Angeles Rams defense giving up the eighteenth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The Rams have allowed 102.2 rushing yards and 0.8 touchdowns with 4.9 receptions, 29.8 receiving yards and 0.3 touchdowns to the running back position on the season, giving Elliott palpable upside for this weekends contest. The Rams surrendered 98 rushing yards per game to the other two 1,000 yard rushers they have faced this season suggesting that knowing the run is coming has not helped the Rams shut the ground game down. Averaging 25.86 fantasy points in his last three road games, Elliott has been more efficient away from Jerry’s world this season, as he is putting up 5.1 yards per carry on the road versus a much less impressive 4.4 yards per carry at home. Elliott looks like one of the top plays regardless of position this weekend and is a name I went into this contest with a desire to roster.
Melvin Gordon ($29 Salary; 4th salary rank; 3rd personal rank)
Melvin Gordon has a plus matchup this weekend despite facing off against a New England Patriots defense giving up the eleventh fewest fantasy points to enemy running backs. As is often the case, it is hard for opponents to run when they are losing games but the Patriots still found a way to relinquish 94.3 rushing yards and 48.9 receiving yards per game to the running back position on the year. While the touchdown totals of 0.4 and 0.3 respectively kept their fantasy points against down, a deeper analysis reveals that the Pats have faced only one other elite running back all season, surrendering 185 yards (80 rushing, 105 receiving) and a touchdown on just 15 touches to Kareem Hunt. Based on these numbers Gordon looks like a high upside play this weekend especially when one considers that he has been a road warrior this season as he averages an upper echelon 81.3 rushing yards per game at 5.7 yards per carry versus 66.2 rushing yards and 4.5 yards per carry at home. Roll with Gordon if you are unable to roster Todd Gurley due to salary cap constraints.
Yahoo NFL DFS Daily Fantasy Football: Week Nineteen Picks
Robert Woods ($20 Salary; 7th salary rank; 5th personal rank)
Robert Woods has a plus matchup this weekend despite doing battle against a Dallas Cowboys defense relinquishing the sixth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The ‘Boys have allowed 11.1 receptions, 144.9 yards and 0.8 touchdowns to the wide receiver position on the season giving Woods solid upside in this contest especially when one considers that Brandin Cooks will likely spend the majority of his day lined up against top corner Byron Jones. Woods has a tasty matchup to target against speedy slot corner Anthony Brown who has allowed a 64.5 percent catch rate and a 88.0 passer rating against. Woods is averaging five receptions for 78.3 yards in his last three home games (excluding week seventeen) and will likely be Jared Goff‘s top target. In terms of splits, outside of the touchdown department (four to two), Woods has been statistically consistent both at home and on the road, in receptions (43 a piece), yards per game (76.9 vs 75.5) and yards per reception (14.3 to 14.0) and should be in line for a high volume day as the Rams look to pound the ball and play ‘keep away’ from Byron Jones when they put it in the air.
Julian Edelman ($20 Salary; 6th salary rank; 6th personal rank)
Julian Edelman looks to have a solid matchup this weekend despite facing off against a Los Angeles Chargers defense giving up the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Averaging 17.6 fantasy points over his past four contests, a span where he recorded at least 90 yards or a touchdown, Edelman has a tougher matchup against one of the more complete slot corners in the league in surging Chargers cornerback Desmond King. King has allowed a respectable 64.9 percent catch rate on the season while holding opposing receivers in check to the tune of a 85.0 passer rating against, but will be contending with one of the best in the league in terms of using route stem to gain separation. Edelman has come on strong as of late and is a solid play at what appears to be a discounted $20 price tag. Roll with Edelman where needed.
T.Y. Hilton ($22 Salary; 4th salary rank; 3rd personal rank)
T.Y. Hilton has a tasty matchup this weekend against a Kansas City Chiefs defense surrendering the fifteenth most fantasy points to enemy wideouts. The Colts have relinquished 14.1 receptions, 172.4 receiving yards and 0.9 touchdowns per game to the wide receiver position on the season and 8.3 receptions, 107.6 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to the WR1 types they have faced this season. Hilton has posted at least 85 receiving yards four of his last five contests and could be in line for a monster game against a Chiefs team that has allowed the fourth most receiving yards to wide receivers. T.Y. has a great matchup this Saturday against Charvarius Ward, a cornerback who has allowed an exploitable 70 percent catch rate and a 99.2 passer rating against on the season. In a game that Vegas has pegged to be a shootout (currently at a 57 point total) Hilton has both mammoth upside and a high floor this weekend, making him look like one of the plays of the week.
Yahoo NFL DFS Daily Fantasy Football: Week Nineteen Picks
Hunter Henry ($14 Salary; 5th salary rank; 5th personal rank)
Despite being activated for his first game of the season, talented tight end Hunter Henry looks like a solid value play this weekend against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have allowed the fifteenth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends by way of 4.4 receptions, 52 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game giving Henry solid upside even if he sees limited snaps as expected. I plugged Henry in as a low-cost, high upside (albeit with a low floor) option.
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Keenan Allen ($23 Salary; 3rd salary rank; 2nd personal rank)
Keenan Allen looks to have a tasty matchup this weekend despite having the ‘misfortune’ of playing against a New England Patriots defense surrendering the twelfth fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. A closer look at the Pats’ numbers reveals that they have allowed 6.25 receptions, 77.25 yards and 1.25 touchdowns per game to the top five receiver types they have faced on the season, piquing interest in this matchup. Allen has been pretty consistent this season in terms of home/road splits as he averages only eight less yards per contest on the road but actually sees his yards per reception spike to 13.2 (vs 11.7 at home). Allen looks to have a solid matchup this week against slot corner Jason McCourty who has held opponents to a 58.6 percent catch rate but has allowed a 93.0 passer rating against and should see some game script aided production. While Allen has been more inconsistent than one would like from a WR1, he has averaged 19.75 fantasy points in the last four games he played with totals over 47.5 and is facing a team near the bottom third in the league in terms of touchdowns allowed (thirteenth most) to wide receivers. Plug Keenan in as a potential contrarian play this weekend and reap the rewards.
Los Angeles Chargers ($14 Salary)
Though the Los Angeles Chargers have a low floor this weekend, they still look like an upside play against the New England Patriots. The Patriots have relinquished the third fewest fantasy points to opposing defensive/special teams units this season, shining a light on the Chargers floor this weekend. The Chargers are averaging 15.25 fantasy points in four of their last five contests with totals under 51 giving them solid upside despite a total that may scare some off. The Pats have allowed two sacks per game in their last three contests against teams that made the playoffs and could be in for a long night against the best pass rushing duo they have seen since October. I chose the Chargers here as what looks to be one of the best, if not the best, value defensive plays, and as a team I frequently ride with in DFS.
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