Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Sunday January 13

Welcome into the Sunday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We only have four games in front of us, but we also have some big names on the docket.

We have another slate where the biggest decision revolves around the bearded one – James Harden and whether you pay the price or try to fade him. I thought this past game was one where you at least had a chance to fade him and it make sense. Part of the theory came to pass because Harden did only play three quarters. The issue was he still dropped 88 DraftKings points. I wish Cleveland had been able to stay in that game to see how high Harden could have climbed. Given that his price has only come up $200 on DK, I’m inclined to just continue to ride the wave. With a four game player pool, missing 90 points from one player could prove to be fatal. Let’s get into the rest of the slate, keeping in mind I’ll try to keep some of the plays a little more on the cheaper end.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Jalen Brunson, Mavericks 

Bear with me because this might not make a lot of sense on the surface. The rookie has had an up and down season, but now sees an opportunity with the unfortunate injury to J.J. Berea. The veteran suffered a torn Achilles last game so there are minutes available. Dennis Smith Jr. might be out again and that would be preferable. Even if DSJ plays, I still think Brunson is cheap enough on both sites to take a stab at, since especially FanDuel is starved for any value at point guard.

The Cavs and Warriors have a total that is at least 10 points higher than any of the other two games with a current total. Brunson has seen almost 400 minutes without Smith and Berea on the floor so far this year and is averaging a very nice 20 percent usage rate and 0.87 FPPM. Even with Luka Doncic taking this offense over, there is still fantasy production to be had and Brunson has flashed upside during this season. He recently just totaled a double double off the bench and Dallas will need contributions from everyone if they want to win this one.

Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Warriors if you spend up on PG

Fade – Damian Lillard, Blazers 

There’s only so much salary to go around and I kind of doubt that I’ll be using much of Damian Lillard tonight. That might seem strange considering he finally had a big fantasy game the last time out, but let’s take a closer look. Of his 51 FD points, a whopping 21 came from steals and blocks. His season averages are one steal and a half a block a game, so needless to say that is an outlier game for those stats. It’s never wise to chase that and with his season averages, Lillard scores just 36 FD points.

That would have continued a string of very average play for Lillard, but the price just doesn’t want to move at all. At his current salary on DK, you need 51 points to hit true 6x. He hasn’t done that in nine of his last 10 outings, which leaves me puzzled as to why the salary isn’t still dropping. Denver allows the eighth fewest real points to point guards, meaning Lillard will probably be on the sidelines for me.

Honorable Mention – Collin Sexton, Cavs

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Malik Beasley, Nuggets 

*Note – If Gary Harris returns to the lineup, you can pivot to Alec Burks of the Cavs 

The Nuggets are inching closer to being back to having all their players available to them but I think we see at least one more game with both Will Barton and Gary Harris out or limited. Barton made his way back last night, playing just 15 minutes and I would suspect that he won’t be asked to do much more than that on a back to back, if not sit outright. Harris missed last night dealing with a hamstring and I’m not sure Denver would play him today. If he remains out, Beasley is a great salary saver.

While Denver has been shorthanded lately, Beasley has been seeing a massive minutes workload. He’s played at least 31 in three straight and that’s why I would like at him ahead of Monte Morris. Beasley isn’t the most efficient player and won’t do a lot on the stat sheet, but does average 0.83 FPPM when Harris and Barton aren’t on the floor. I’m always willing to take chances with players on the court this much, just like we do with Austin Rivers from the Rockets at times.

Honorable Mention – Luka Doncic, Mavericks(yes, he is becoming one of my favorite players and if you happen to listen to the RotoCurve podcast, I have claimed him as “my guy”)

Fade – Josh Hart, Lakers

I’m a little torn here and I’m not sure this is a full fade. Maybe Hart is more of a play if you make multiple lineups and can absorb some of the risk that comes with him. On the one hand, it’s a spectacular matchup for Hart. The Cavs give up the fifth most DK points to shooting guards(might have looked better before Harden went scorched Earth on them) so Hart does have that going for him. Even in limited minutes, there’s possibility to do some damage but that’s a double edged sword.

Since the Lakers are relatively healthy, Hart’s minutes have dropped significantly these past two games. He’s been under 30 minutes since Kyle Kuzma has been back in the lineup and there’s not much reason to see that changing. The price isn’t crazy high, but the risk is evident with under 14 DK points in those two games. There’s a plethora of options cheaper than Hart that play equal to, if not more minutes tonight.

Honorable Mention – Klay Thompson, Warriors at an elevated price tag

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Danuel House, Rockets 

Funnily enough, this is not the first time that House has made it into this article but once again, we need value on the four gamer. Sure, on FD especially, Kevin Durant is a great play since every other option at SF is under $7,000. We need to play at least one more on FD and House could be a very nice option to complement the rest of the lineup. There is potentially a very good reason for it as House can pay off his price in three pointers alone.

When we look at how the Magic give up their points, they face the 12th most three pointers in the league and match that by giving up the fifth highest percentage on those shots. They are also bottom 12 in the league in three pointers made to the small forward position. On top of all of that, House shoots a three pointer with 66.2 percent frequency. When James Ennis made his return from injury, the assumption was he would resume most of his minutes.It would appear that House has carved out a nice role of at least 24-28 minutes a night and the price is still low enough to feel relatively good a bout a three point specialist tonight.

Honorable Mention – Harrison Barnes, Mavericks in cash only. He legitimately has no ceiling based on how this season has gone

Fade – None 

I’m not going to be disingenuous and try to talk you out of any certain player at this spot, especially on FD. Will I play Will Barton if he’s active? No, but that’s a little cheap considering his current minutes. Brandon Ingram has been underwhelming, but Cleveland can bring out the best in him. Durant is expensive, but not a bad play. After that, we’re down in the sub-$5,000 range and there’s really not much of a need to say this player deserves a fade.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Kyle Kuzma, Lakers 

The game log looks a little ragged these past three outings with two mediocre games mixed with a big night that featured Kuzma scoring 41 real points on the Pistons in just 29 minutes. Things didn’t go nearly as well in Utah but that really shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Tonight, he gets to head back home and face off against a putrid Cavs team and he should be able to show out.

Cleveland is actually middle of the road against power forwards, but they do allow the eighth most real points to the position. That is the biggest role that Kuzma has on the team right now with LeBron James remaining out of the lineup for at least a little while longer. Kuzma has overtaken Ingram in terms of usage, and even though it’s close, Kuzma is still the preferred play at this point in good matchups. Sunday is a rock solid one for him and the price is very fair.

Honorable Mention – Paul Millsap, Nuggets

Fade – P.J. Tucker, Rockets

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve taken my shots with Tucker this season. he’s always a safe(ish) play because of the minutes he sees and there’s certain times that he actually has a little bit of a ceiling. I don’t think the Magic represent that since they are ninth against power forwards. I tend to try and catch Tucker when he has a shot at some rebounds to go along with other stats, because he’s not going to do all that much for you. With Nikola Vucevic patrolling the paint so much, I don’t believe this is the spot for Tucker.

In addition, the price is on the high end for Tucker(on FD, DK he does make a little more sense) because he had back to back 30+ point efforts. Granted there is a dud against Cleveland but the man actually got a little bit of a breather, playing only 26 minutes. He likely still gets to a respectable total if he plays normal minutes but this still is a poor matchup on paper.

Honorable Mention – Al-Farouq Aminu, Blazers

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Tristan Thompson, Cavaliers 

If you remember back a couple months ago, this is a player that climbed well over $7,000 on DK. Thompson was playing a ton of minutes and was a walking double double every single night. If you take Larry Nance off the court, Thompson still sees 1.03 FPPM and at the minutes he plays in competitive games, that would be plenty to justify his price because he gets a fantastic matchup tonight.

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Thompson is in the top 12 in paint touches a game this year and he scores 6.3 points a game from the painted area. The Lakers give up around 43 a game from that area, which is actually pretty good. Where they get rocked is rebounds in the paint, where they are bottom five. Thompson sits ninth in rebound chances per game and gets to take advantage of the team that gives up the second most rebounds to centers a night. They also surrender the sixth most real points. Provided Cleveland can keep it close enough to give Thompson his normal run, he should dominate down low for the Cavs tonight.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Vucevic, Magic

Fade – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

It’s pretty rare that you’ll find me calling to be careful with Jokic as I love “Big Honey”. Tonight won’t be the night that I chase hime because it will be very difficult to play him and Harden together and I feel like Harden is just a much more important piece for the slate. Jokic is on a back to back situation, which has resulted in a small dip in his numbers in the six games this season that were the second leg of a back to back. It usually wouldn’t be a huge concern, but there are two factors that compound the base issue.

First, Jokic has a tough matchup. Generally, he is a matchup proof type of player but Portland has allowed the sixth fewest points to centers. That includes the fifth fewest points and the seventh fewest rebounds. Second, the price doesn’t allow for a floor game from the Joker. If he gets you 40 fantasy points at his price, that’s really going to hurt.

Lastly, even though there is some history with Jusuf Nurkic being traded away from Denver, that doesn’t matter too Jokic. Denver chose to keep him, so it doesn’t bother him. To wit, in six games versus Jokic, Nurkic averages three more points and they average about the same amount of boards. It’s not an element that enters for me tonight.

Honorable Mention – JaVale McGee, Lakers

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