DraftKings NBA Main Picks January 13: Don't fade Harden!

CHARLOTTE, NC – DECEMBER 12: Blake Griffin #23 of the Detroit Pistons reacts against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on December 12, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Main Picks January 13: Don’t fade Harden!

We have a split Sunday for our DraftKings NBA picks as well. There are only seven games today though. Two are earlier in the afternoon. DraftKings did isolate the Bucks/Hawks tilt at 3:30 eastern, which robs the early slate of Giannis, Collins, and a ton of value. The other four tip later. That makes for a smaller main slate, but

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($9,800): Pairing Curry and Harden isn’t a huge priority for me since Curry was held to 41.25 DraftKings points in 39 minutes against Dallas the first time around. This is the time to ride another piece of the Warriors offense. Or is it? Curry had one of his worst shooting games of the year against Dallas. If he shoots like he normally does, Curry clears 50.

Jamal Murray ($7,100): Denver’ point guard defense has been on point. They shut down Lillard the first time around, so I’m not really interested in paying for Lillard. Honestly, I have a bit of an issue paying for Murray as well. Will Barton returned yesterday, and Harris could be back today. Barton’s minutes didn’t cut into Murray much yesterday, so I’m still willing to use Murray here. That could change if Harris plays.

Honorable Mention:

Lonzo Ball ($6,400): This is one of those situations where Ball could go off. Cleveland’s guards are struggling defensively without Hill there. Ball put up 33.75 DraftKings points the first time around, and that was sharing the floor with Rondo and LeBron. He wont have to worry about that tonight.

Jordan Clarkson ($5,700): Clarkson went cold against Houston on Friday snapping his streak of 35+ DraftKings point games at three. He had a good game the first time around against the Lakers, and wont even have to put up with Rondo here. If Clarkson puts up 31.5 DraftKings points on the Lakers again, I don’t think any of us will complain.

Dark Horses:

Alec Burks ($5,100): The Cleveland guards don’t play that good of defense, but they are a massive part of the offense. Burks had a good game against the Lakers the first time around as well. Burks has at least 5x value in six of the last eight games, and was only under 20 once. I like the floor on the Cleveland guards today, and the upside is enough on a four game slate.

Jalen Brunson ($3,800): Brunson had a solid game against the Warriors earlier this year. Even though he has struggled lately, I still like Brunson here with Barea out and Dennis Smith questionable. If Smith ultimately sits, where else is Dallas going to turn? Devin Harris? I would rather take my chances on Brunson.

My pick: Burks(PG); N/A

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 03: Klay Thompson #11 of the Golden State Warriors shoots a three-point basket against Kent Bazemore #24 of the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on December 3, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,700): Are you going to listen and not fade Harden yet? His ownership was down to 37% on Friday when he dropped 88 in just 29 minutes against Cleveland. There is simply no good reason to fade Harden. His low mark with CP3 out is 57.75 DraftKings points, and he’s blown past 80 three times. Good luck finding that anywhere else.

Klay Thompson ($7,200): Klay had two solid Klay-like outings against Dallas earlier this year, but what has me wanting to use him here is the hot streak that Thompson is riding. He has 98 DraftKings points in the last two games in just 59 minutes of court time. He is lights out right now, shooting 28-47 in that span, including 14-27 from beyond the arc. The Warriors are going to ride him until he cools off. So should we.

Honorable Mention:

C.J. McCollum ($6,600): The Nuggets made C.J. beat them in the first meeting. He obliged, putting up 42 DraftKings points in that one. Denver’s guard defense is really good, so if you want to use a Portland guard, McCollum is the way to go and it has a lot to do with the pricing. C.J. is going to get better points on the dollar that Lillard will.

Gary Harris ($5,400): Harris torched Portland for 38.75 DraftKings points the first time around, but even if he plays, we have to temper our expectations here. Even if Harris does start over Barton, he wont play the 36 minutes that he picked up in that first game. To me, there is far too much risk here with Harris, even at this price. If it comes out that he’s starting and not on a minutes limit though, I would consider him at this price.

Dark Horses:

Terrence Ross ($4,300): With Denver getting healthy, I’m not really wanting to use Beasley or Torrey Craig anymore, even though they played well with all of the injuries. All that does is make the Denver guard situation that much harder to predict. I would rather go with Ross, who has topped 30 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. One of those was against Boston. He is a strong value play at this price, especially with the tempo going up against Houston.

James Ennis ($3,300): The Rockets finally gave Ennis 20 minutes for the first time since his return. It is the gradual phasing out of Gerald Green, so if I go with a Houston value play, it’s going to be Ennis so long as his minutes pretty much match Green’s.

My pick: Harden(SG), Thompson(G), Ross(UTIL); Harden(PG), Thompson(SG), Harris(G), Ennis(UTIL)

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – DECEMBER 13: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks handles the ball during the NBA game against the Phoenix Suns at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 13, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Mavericks 99-89. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Luka Doncic ($8,500): Doncic has 65.5 DraftKings points in two games against the Warriors so far, but Doncic was still learning the ropes in the first game. The second game he was much better. Now Doncic is pretty much the center of the Dallas offense. Doncic has three straight games of at least 44 DraftKings points, and cleared 60 in one of those.

Kyle Kuzma ($6,900): Kuzma was pretty much a non factor in the first meeting with Cleveland. Now he is starting and LeBron is nowhere to be found, in a uniform anyway. Kuzma is the most accomplished offensive player on this team with James out, and I don’t really think that Cleveland has anyone to stop him, especially with Nance out of the lineup.

Honorable Mention:

Harrison Barnes ($5,600): Barnes has performed pretty well against his former team this season. He has 66.5 DraftKings points in the two games so far. While this is not a huge point total, it is well over value with Barnes at this price. I like Barnes at this price considering we can fit him in easily with Harden and still take another higher priced player.

Will Barton ($5,200): Barton put up 16.75 DraftKings points in 16 minutes in his return. Denver limited his minutes to ease him back into action, so it’s possible that they could rest him entirely here, especially if Harris returns. I want to know how many minutes Barton is playing before I feel comfortable about using him. I want right around 25 to consider him. Otherwise there are better options.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,800): Aminu hasn’t been under 20 DraftKings points in well over a month. That kind of floor goes a long way in choosing a value pick. I prefer Aminu in cash games since there isn’t a ton of upside with him. Denver isn’t the best matchup to deploy him either, but Aminu did rack up 32.75 DraftKings points in that first meeting. If he gets me somewhere close to that, I wont be disappointed at all.

Andre Iguodala ($3,700): Iggy often doesn’t have a lot of upside, and this really is no different. Iguodala put up 46.25 DraftKings points in 51 minutes over the first two meetings. Don’t expect anything great, but if a guy price this low is going to get me 20 on a lighter slate, I’m not going to complain.

My pick: Barnes(SF); Doncic(SF), Aminu(PF), Iguodala(F)

OAKLAND, CA – OCTOBER 22: Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors high fives Kevin Durant #35 after making a basket against the Phoenix Suns at ORACLE Arena on October 22, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($9,600): Durant is making the math easy on me today. He has averaged an even 50 DraftKings points per game on the season. Guess what he has averaged in the two games against Dallas this year? That’s right. 50 DraftKings points exactly. His price is below five figures, so he clears 5x value. Klay’s hot shooting has taken away some of Durant’s thunder, but I still think he’s strong play here, especially with everyone focusing on Curry and Doncic.

Honorable Mention:

Draymond Green ($6,700): Green chewed up Dallas for 39 DraftKings points in the one game that he took the court against them. Green would have had his fourth straight game of more than 35 DraftKings points last night if he hadn’t played just 21 minutes against the Bulls in the blowout win last night. The Warriors kept the starters fresh so no one should be resting tonight. All the better to run a few of them against Dallas.

Paul Millsap ($6,000): Millsap ravaged the Blazers in the first meeting with 49.5 DraftKings points in 36 minutes. The problem is that Millsap likely wont play that many minutes again. However, even in the 30 minutes that Millsap has been getting lately, he could still reach 40. This is a great matchup for Millsap, and he will be in most if not all of my lineups.

Dark Horses:

Mason Plumlee ($4,600): With Millsap taking back a larger role on the team, Plumlee’s minutes are starting to take a hit. However, he has shown the ability to do quite a bit with only a few minutes. If you need value in this spot, you can do worse. Plumlee has good upside, but his floor is scary at this price point.

Maxi Kleber ($4,000): Kleber is getting big minutes lately, but will it continue? We have seen Dallas toy with running him starter’s minutes before, but it never lasts. Kleber has 54.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. That’s well above value. Can he do it against the Warriors? If he can, maybe this is where Kleber finally breaks out. At any rate, this is a small price to pay to see if he can do it. Kleber is worth a GPP dart.

My pick: Green(PF), Kleber(F); N/A

DENVER, CO – NOVEMBER 23: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets plays the Orlando Magic at the Pepsi Center on November 23, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,200): I don’t really like any of the top matchups at center. They are all tough, and none of them hit value against tonight’s opponent the first time around. That said, Jokic is playing at a very high level right now, and we all know that Millsap isn’t dropping 50 again. Where is that production going? Probably here, but there is still risk involved.

Jusuf Nurkic ($8,300): Nurkic outdid his former teammate in the first meeting. Now this meeting moves to Denver where Nurkic was a popular guy when he got on the court. He put up 41.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. That’s what he needs to get to make it worth our while tonight. What are the chances of that happening? I still don’t make a point of playing guys against Jokic.

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Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,800): Capela has at least 32 DraftKings points in every game since the calendar flipped to 2019. I kind of get the feeling that Capela is going to lock down Vucevic, but it could also be reciprocated. Capela seems a bit overpriced here, but we have seen him put up big numbers where the matchup doesn’t favor him before. I really wouldn’t use Capela in anything but a Houston stack though.

DeAndre Jordan ($6,800): Jordan has been a problem for the Warriors this year, putting up 84.75 DraftKings points in the first two meetings. I usually don’t go after Draymond either, but on a smaller slate sometimes exceptions have to be made. This is a good place to make one.

Dark Horses:

Tristan Thompson ($6,100): Thompson put up 34.25 DraftKings points on the Lakers in the first meeting. Not much is going to change here. Thompson’s minutes have fluctuated based on matchup, but I think they are pretty secure here against the Lakers. It’s hard to use him at this price, but he did hit 5x value in the first meeting even with this kind of inflation going on. It does sap a lot of his value though.

Kevon Looney ($4,400): Looney has over 20 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 12 games. This is the kind of floor I want in a value pick. Looney’s ability to consistently overachieve on a per minute basis makes him a popular GPP target. He certainly will be with me.

My pick: Looney(C); Looney(C)

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