NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday January 13
Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Saturday’s NBA DFS slate saw winning GPP scores push well over 350 fantasy points driven by a massive night from Karl-Anthony towns who scored 78 fantasy points which lapped the field by 20+ points as the key player to own. In total, six players went for 50+ on the night including Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook with Kelly Oubre‘s 50 spot at 10% ownership against the Nuggets being the least owned of all the top plays.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Sunday Slate Overview:
We have a nice four game NBA DFS slate which kicks off at 6PM EST amidst an NFL Sunday with the final two Division Weekend games on tap – so basically get everything you need to get done this morning so you can park your butt on the couch for some football and hoops this afternoon.
The most interesting aspect of this slate to me is that the game I want to target most is the one that Vegas is telling me to avoid – the Rockets/Magic.
With a 213 total, by far the lowest on the slate and the lowest projected pace game environment on any other slate this would be a game to avoid – but there is one wrinkle in counting on Vegas today – and that is James Harden ($22.6K) who has now gone for 80+ fantasy points in three of his last six games with CP3 and Eric Gordon sidelined.
On a four game slate, you just lock in Harden and move on, I would not get cute – the question is, are you running him as a one-off or stacking this game? My guess is that most will run him as a one-off with better game environments but I think there is a strong case for the game stack here and planting your flag with these two teams. The only caveat to that – this is the first game on the slate at 6PM EST so it may be the only game we have confirmed lineups for – meaning ownership could push here for those who want safety on non-late swap sites.
On the Rockets side – this is a two-man show – Harden and Clint Capela ($14.3K) are the only two players on Houston over the last two weeks with CP3/Gordon off the floor that are putting up over a FP/M. Sure go ahead and play the value if you want of Gerald Green, PJ Tucker, Danuel House and Austin Rivers but I would rather just isolate my exposure to Harden/Capela due to the game environment.
If you look back a few games ago against Memphis, a similar low pace game with CP3/Gordon sidelined, only Capela and Harden went for 30+ fantasy points so although the minutes will be there for the Rockets role players, this is not the game environment to load up on these low ceiling/low floor poor FP/M producers.
NBA DFS – Stack the Magic:
It is easy to look at the Vegas data and see the Magic have the second largest pace decrease while also having the lowest implied team total at 104 and looking elsewhere – but maybe we shouldn’t.
The Magic are in a similar situation to last night, a pace down game environment against a much better defensive team in the Boston Celtics where they scored “only” 105 points – basically bang on to what Vegas thinks they will do tonight.
Here is the thing though, that 105 actual points and the fantasy production that accompanies it – are concentrated on a clear core group and the price points are reasonable enough where you can mix and match around a high-priced star like James Harden.
Look at last night against Boston:
- Aaron Gordon – 47 FPTS
- Nikola Vucevic – 40 FPTS
- Terrance Ross – 37 FPTS
- Evan Fournier – 31 FPTS
So even in a less than ideal game environment, this is one of those cases where if the Magic are going to score 105 points again, the production is likely coming from this same core group. If I can build a roster around Harden and his 80+ point ceiling and get 30-40 fantasy points from the rest, that’s a roster build I will happily take.
The Magic are basically running a 6 man core rotation at this point with DJ Augustin and Jonathan Isaac as the additional players to those already mentioned. The focus for me is going to be in Evan Fournier ($9.9K), Aaron Gordon ($12.2K) and Nikola Vucevic ($15.7K) as the trio that seems to be locked into 30+ minutes a game.
Even though this game has a low total/low pace – it has the benefit of only a 5 point spread and two teams that are playing a 5-6 man core MAJOR minutes. Even if this game comes in at a 213 total – you could easily see a path where Harden has a ceiling game and this trio, plus Capela, all run it back with strong 30-40 fantasy points outings.
If you need a true punt, the Magic have been leaning on Isaiah Briscoe ($6K) for the backup PG minutes with 17, 18 and 21 minutes the last three games – putting up 21, 11 and 8 FPTS – so this is the definition of a low floor punt but this is not a punt in the sense of they are dependent on garbage time. Briscoe is the clear backup PG, getting consistent run and we saw against the Kings in his 21 FPT outing that he has some sneaky upside. On the tail end of a B2B, could the Magic give him a bit more run? Its risky but it is a four game slate so have to be different somewhere!
NBA DFS – Finding Value:
It may not be too tough to fit in Harden and other stars today with the price points on the Dallas Mavericks who get a nice point/pace boost at home taking on the Golden State Warriors. The Mavericks will be without J.J. Barea and could also remain without Dennis Smith Jr. who is officially questionable to play today.
Luka Doncic ($15.6K) is an obvious exceptional play with a 37% usage rate the last two weeks with DSJ and Barea off the court but there is a ton of value on this Dallas squad that I would rather focus on today.
Maxi Kleber ($7.8K) has back to back games with 30+ minutes of court time in the starting unit, averaging 27 FPTS per game which puts his “average” production the last two games at 3.5 x value on FantasyDraft.
If Dennis Smith Jr. ($8.4K) does play the price is low enough where you can make the case for him but this is a GPP only play for a guy who is coming off a back injury and really you’re hoping that he gets pushed into extra run with Barea being injured.
Wes Matthews ($8.3K) is what he is – a guy with a 30 minute path who has a super low floor but also has a worthwhile ceiling, putting 40 fantasy points up against this same Golden State team the last time they met on 12/22.
DeAndre Jordan ($12.2K) is not technically a “value” play at this price point but considering this is a guy with a 50+ point ceiling, there is point per dollar value we can build around. DJ dropped 55 fantasy points against the Warriors in their last meeting, gobbling up 23 rebounds in 36 minutes of court time.
NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:
Please note – this is an illustrative example ONLY and is not meant to be a Plug and Play lineup.
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G: James Harden:
G: Wes Matthews
F/C: Nikola Vucevic
F/C: Aaron Gordon
F/C: Clint Capela
UTIL: DeAndre Jordan
UTIL: Maxi Kleber
Slate Overview: This slate is relatively simple and I do not intend to complicate it – I am locking in James Harden and building a core around that Magic/Rockets game. The Mavericks right now look like the easy path to value although we do need to wait on the status of DSJ before we can make that official.
Enjoy the slate and all the NFL DFS action as well – Happy Sunday all!
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