DraftKings NBA Picks January 14: Don't fade Harden tonight either!

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – JANUARY 05: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz reacts late in the game while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on January 05, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Utah won the game 110-105. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 14: Don’t fade Harden tonight either!

We have a pretty light slate for a Monday with only six games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments. There’s still a lot of high grade talent though with Harden going back to back and the mini Harden, Donovan Mitchell, getting up there in price. How do we handle that with Brow on the slate too?

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Damian Lillard ($8,800): Lillard put up 41.5 DraftKings points in a tougher matchup with Denver last night. Tongiht against the Kings should be a cakewalk. Therein lies the problem. This could end up a blowout. Lillard also picked up 41.5 in the first meeting with the Kings. The Kings managed to keep that one close. If they can again, Lillard may go over that mark.

Jrue Holiday ($8,000): Holiday continues to put up nice numbers even with Payton back. He is exactly like before with a few less assists. That means his ceiling is more like 50 than mid 60’s. He hasn’t hit 50 yet since Holiday’s return, but he could come close against the Clippers. This is a really good matchup.

Honorable Mention:

Mike Conley ($7,600): Fox was manhandled by the Blazers the first time around, so I want no part of that. Conley against Houston with Paul out looks much better. He put up 35.5 DraftKings points with Paul out on New Year’s Eve, so this is a solid spot for Conley. Not great, but I enjoy this type of consistency in cash games. We should be able to do better in GPP formats.

Elfrid Payton ($5,900): Payton still isn’t seeing a ton of minutes, but he racked up 43.25 DraftKings points against the Clippers the first time around. Even if he only sees about 28 minutes, I could see him in the mid 30’s tonight. Payton is cheap enough that we can use him with higher priced stars, and he should put up very nice numbers for the price.

Dark Horses:

Shabazz Napier ($4,600): How do you fade Napier right now? I know he’s playing the Celtics, and I know they are a tougher defense. However, Napier put up 29.75 DraftKings points on Boston in the first meeting and he hasn’t been below 25 DraftKings points in the last four games. Napier is at a value price against Boston, but there is hope considering how well he did the first time around.

Patty Mills ($3,700): Mills had his worst game since December 26th, and his price still jumped $200. However, the Spurs backcourt is a solid place to look for value. The bad part is that Derrick White is no longer priced like a value pick. It’s going to take a game near the top of what White produces to hit value there. Mills is still the safer value play.

My pick: N/A; Mills(PG) or Rozier if Irving is out

SALT LAKE CITY, UT – MAY 06: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz knocks the ball from the hands of James Harden #13 of the Houston Rockets in the second half during Game Four of Round Two of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Vivint Smart Home Arena on May 6, 2018 in Salt Lake City, Utah. The Rockets beat the Jazz 100-87. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($12,400): Everyone is eyeballing this matchup with Memphis and thinking they’re going to jump off Harden. Let them. Harden has racked up 151.5 DraftKings points in just two games against Memphis this year. Only one of those was with Paul out. You can look for ways to rationalize this all you want, but I’m not sure how you can fade Harden and feel confident in that decision. The only thing he has going against him is the second night of a back to back. They are both at home though, so it shouldn’t be a huge deal.

Donovan Mitchell ($9,200): Mitchell isn’t going to drop 80. Let’s get that out of the way right now. However, Mitchell has three straight games of more than 50 DraftKings points running the offense with Rubio, Exum, and Neto all out. This is a great matchup with Detroit here, and it presents a unique opportunity: We can get a sure 50 from someone not in five figure pricing. You can justify a Harden fade and pair Mitchell with Davis here.

Honorable Mention:

Lou Williams ($6,700): This is a great matchup for LouWill tonight. The only hang up is that he hasn’t performed like this is a good matchup for him in two games this season. As usual, Williams is a risk, and at this price, I think we have to be able to do better. If you are playing two of the high priced guys anyway, you aren’t going to be digging around in this tier anyway. Williams can safely be ignored tonight, despite the good matchup.

Buddy Hield ($6,600): Hield’s price still isn’t dropping like I had hoped, but he torched Portland the first time around. Hield racked up 42.75 DraftKings points on Portland, but that was also in the middle of one of his hot streaks. Hield is clearly not in one of those now. His minutes have dipped against, but his game against Charlotte on Saturday does give us hope that he is getting back going again.

Dark Horses:

Marcus Smart ($4,600): Smart put up 32.5 DraftKings points on this same Nets team just over a week ago. However, he hasn’t been anywhere near that total since. Still, Smart is seeing starter’s minutes. So long as he plays around 30 minutes, Smart is a nice value play on a night where we are going to need some.

Reggie Bullock ($4,500): People are finally starting to take notice of Bullock, and his price proves it. Bullock has 64.5 DraftKings points over the last two games, and is facing a Utah team that he put up 27.25 DraftKings points on in the first meeting. Bullock is never going to put up a massive stat line, but he continues to be a strong value play, although somewhat less strong at this price. However, if he’s still dropping 28’s at the price, I’m not going to complain.

Kyle Korver ($3,800): Korver has seen increased minutes as well with all of the Utah injuries. The first game he really didn’t do much with his playing time. Last game the veteran sharpshooter went for 26.25 DraftKings points. Korver is always a risk because Utah isn’t going to run him over 25 minutes. However, if he gets hot, he can crush value.

My pick: Harden(PG), Mitchell(SG), Bullock(G); Mitchell(SG)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 17: Danilo Gallinari #8 of the LA Clippers dribbles the ball during the game against Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on November 17, 2018 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Danilo Gallinari ($7,200): Gallinari has 74.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Pelicans. There is no reason to believe that he can’t hit around 38 again. These were both high scoring games earlier this season. It’s going to be that kind of pace again, and sharpshooters like Gallinari are going to be very good in this situation.

Honorable Mention:

Joe Ingles ($6,100): I thought both the production and the output from Ingles would increase with all of the injuries at guard for the Jazz, but that has not been the case. Mitchell has taken over. If you play Ingles at this point you are basically betting on Mitchell being less of a factor. That seems like a sucker bet right now. I would much rather ride Mitchell.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,600): Bodganovic put up 38.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Portland. The bottom line is that the Blazers don’t defend the perimeter well, and the Kings shoot an awful lot of perimeter shots. Bogdanovic is the one to fly with here. Hield has a much higher ceiling, but his price is a lot higher and the floor may be lower. Bogdanovic is the safer pick.

Dark Horses:

Royce O’Neale ($4,700): O’Neale has back to back 30+ DraftKings points games while he has been in the starting lineup. Neto is already ruled out, so O’Neale is going to get at least one more start. His price is still in a place where we can get really good value out of him, so O’Neale will be a large part of my builds as well.

Marco Belinelli ($3,800): While most of the Spurs have been hit and miss as far as value goes, Belinelli keeps getting better. He has topped 20 DraftKings points in three straight games and has gone over 26 in the last two. Again, Belinelli’s years of dropping 40 or 50 are over, but he is a superb value play tonight. He is going to grace a few of my lineups.

Justin Holiday ($3,400): Kyle Anderson is out for the foreseeable future, so Holiday is going to start in his place. I expect Holiday’s production to be about what Anderson’s was, and his price is much, much lower. This is a chalk value play tonight, but we have to eat it and move on. This is way too cheap for Holiday.

My pick: Belinelli(SF), Holiday(F); Belinelli(SF), O’Neale(F), Holiday(G)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,600): Davis has 127 DraftKings points in two games against the Clippers already. This is another smash spot for Davis, and he is the only player I would fade Harden for. It’s possible to put both Davis and Harden in your lineup, but I’m not sure it could win. All of the value plays would have to hit, and that almost never happens.

Blake Griffin ($9,400): Griffin’s matchup doesn’t look good at all. The Jazz have been tough on power forwards all year. Blake doesn’t care. Griffin racked up 59.5 DraftKings points in the first meeting with them. Many are going to see the red number and shy away. However, he’s worth a look. I wouldn’t fade Davis for Griffin, but you can try putting them together.

Honorable Mention:

Tobias Harris ($7,700): Harris put up 83.25 DraftKings points in the two meetings with the Pelicans. If you can manage the Clippers forwards with Harden or Davis, you may be on to something. Or it will be a spectacular fail if your value plays don’t pan out. I don’t know that I would fade Harden for Harris and Gallinari, but it is very tempting in this matchup.

Marcus Morris ($5,800): Morris has three straight games of more than 30 DraftKings points. Those came right after Morris had a dud against this same Nets team. There is risk involved here, but that was in Morris’s first game back after missing one with a sore neck. I would be willing to take a chance with Morris against here, but I’m not going to make it a priority.

Dark Horses:

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,000): Aminu picked up 31 DraftKings points against the Kings in the first meeting. This is as high as Aminu has been in a while, but he keeps putting up numbers worthy of this price. The Sacramento frontcourt can’t really stop anyone, so Aminu is a strong cash game play. He even has enough upside for GPP purposes.

Davis Bertans ($3,900): Bertans isn’t going to go nuts and wreck the slate here, but he should hit value without issue with Rudy Gay still sidelined. You may want to ride Gasol instead, but Bertans is going to see the bulk of the minutes. He has a better chance of coming out on top with less risk.

My pick: Bertans(PF); Davis(PF), Aminu(UTIL)

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – DECEMBER 01: Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons reacts after a 111-102 win over the Golden State Warriors at Little Caesars Arena on December 01, 2018 in Detroit, Michigan. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Andre Drummond ($8,700): This is a great spot for Drummond. He put up 45.5 DraftKings points on the Jazz in the first meeting, even with Griffin’s big game. I would say that Drummond is more likely to go off here than Griffin is. Both have been rather inconsistent lately though, and with other great top options out there, I can see fading both of them.

Jusuf Nurkic ($8,600): If you are going solely on past stats, Nurkic is easily the best play of the night. He destroyed the Kings for 82.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting. What’s stopping him from doing it again? You could even argue that Nurkic is playing better now than he was heading into that first meeting. It’s not fair to expect 80 out of him, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Nurkic came close to Davis and Harden’s totals tonight.

More from FanSided

Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,500)/Marc Gasol ($7,300): You can pretty much put these two together because their totals were almost the same in the first two meetings. It’s reasonable to expect that they will be around the same again. Right around 40. To me that makes both of these guys better in cash games, but I can’t argue with a GPP play either, except for the fact that center is loaded for a six game slate.

Julius Randle ($7,400): The Pelicans are going to clean out the Clippers front just like they did the first time around. I like Randle a bit less with Mirotic back, but this is still a place where Randle can dominate. Center is still a sore spot for the Clippers. The Pelicans will take every advantage of that be it with Randle or Davis.

Dark Horses:

Al Horford ($6,200): Horford is back up to 30 minutes a game and HE’S PLAYING THE NETS!

Bismack Biyombo ($4,200)/Willy Hernangomez ($4,000): These guys are cannibals. They cannibalize each other’s value. If you played them both together, you would get the production of about one decent center. The problem is that you really can’t rely on just one or the other. Their numbers are way too inconsistent to just ride one by themselves. That makes this whole thing a very risky proposition.

My pick: Nurkic(C), Biyombo(UTIL); Nurkic(C)

dark. Next. NBA DFS - Top Plays and Fades - January 14

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for a ton of NFL advice and DFS plays for the NFL, PGA tour, and much more!