Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value 1/14/19

Welcome guys to the Monday Edition of “Top Salary Value Plays”! We had an action packed Sunday with NFL Playoffs and some split NBA action on NBA Draftkings. We have a nice sized slate tonight with 6 games. We get another “Don’t Fade Harden” night with James Harden and his high priced tag. So lets dig in to the slate and find our Top Salary Value Players of the night! Good luck and cash out!

NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown

So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.

For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.

Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.

Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 6 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Jrue Holiday vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $8,000 – Needs to score 40 fantasy points or more to exceed value

On this nice medium slate, the New Orleans Pelicans and Los Angeles Clippers came in as the highest total of the night so why not target Jrue Holiday? Holiday gets to face the Clippers who are allowing point guards to average 24 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds per game this season. Jrue Holiday is almost putting up a double double this season with 21 points, 8 assist, and 5 rebounds which is what the Clippers are allowing. Playing alongside Anthony Davis and Julius Randle, Holiday is seeing a usage rating of 24% but with this high total game, his opportunities should increase.

He has faced this Los Angeles Clippers 21 times in his career, averaging 13 points, 7 assist and 4 rebounds. The last time the two faced off Holiday had an amazing game with 32 points, 14 assist, and 4 rebounds. Holiday has been on the end of hit and missing value this season and only returned value in three of his last five games, scoring 45.5, 39.3, and 40.8 fantasy points in those three games. With both, the Pelicans and Clippers, playing at the same pace, we should see Jrue Holiday exceed his value tonight.

Other Top Tier Options

Donovan Mitchell vs. Detroit Pistons

Salary: $9,200 – Needs to score 46 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Donovan Mitchell is on a dominant play lately with a usage rate of 30% and with all of the injuries on this Utah Jazz team, it’s another hard fade play. Averaging 21 points, 4 assist, and 4 rebounds this season, Mitchell has returned value in 4 of his last 5 games, scoring 50 or more fantasy points in his past three games. He has faced the Detroit Pistons three times in his career, averaging 18 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist versus them. If you choose to avoid Jrue Holiday with their healthy line-up, Donovan Mitchell is the next best up with a point guard position very thin.

Low Tier Options

Lou Williams vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Salary: $6,700 – Needs to score 33.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Calling on the sixth man of the year which seems to be every year gets a nice match-up with the New Orleans Pelicans. We already know how the Pelicans defend against point guards and the pace of this game. Lou Williams has faced the New Orleans Pelicans 28 times in his career but doesn’t far well versus them, just averaging 12 points, 3 assist and 2 rebounds versus them. But we know what Lou Williams is capable of doing when he is hot like what he did versus the Pelicans on December 3rd, recording 20 points, 6 assist, and 3 rebounds. But be on the cautious side as Lou Williams has only returned value once in his past five games where he scored 50.3 fantasy points.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

James Harden vs. Memphis Grizzlies

(Don’t Fade Please)

Salary: $12,400 – Needs to score 62 fantasy points or more to exceed value (80.6 for 6.5x)

Please do not fade James Harden at any time this season if Chris Paul is out. By far the most dominating player in the past month or so with a usage rate of 39%. Only hitting below his value twice since early December, we can’t avoid playing him even at the price of $12,400. James Harden is averaging 34 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds, no where near Russell Westbrook’s average but the man is nearing it. He is averaging 61 fantasy points in just 35 minutes per game, averaging around 1.7 fantasy points per minutes.

On the defensive side of things, the Memphis Grizzlies are allowing shooting guards to average 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists per game. Harden has faced the Grizzlies 36 times in his career, averaging 21 points, 6 assist, and 5 rebounds. We can go off past games and the sample sizes but with James Harden right now, we have to throw all of that out of the window because this man goes off when it’s all him and no Chris Paul.

Other Top Tier Options

DeMar DeRozan vs. Charlotte Hornets

Salary: $8,500 – Needs to score 42.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Coming in at a very discounting price compared to James Harden, DeMar DeRozan has a nice match-up versus the Charlotte Hornets. DeRozan did have a stretch where he was the most dominating guy on the floor with the San Antonio Spurs but lately has been hit and miss. In his past five games, DeRozan has only returned valued twice, scoring 46 and 55.3 fantasy points. This Charlotte Hornets team is allowing shooting guards to average 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. With a point total of 223 points, the Spurs play at a pace of 102 possessions per game and the Hornets play at a pace of 104 possessions per game. The two have yet to face off this season but we should see DeMar DeRozan get his chances to exceed his value and get back on track.

Low Tier Options

Buddy Hield vs. Portland Trailblazers

Salary: $6,600 – Needs to score 33 fantasy points or more to exceed value

My favorite Sacramento Kings player and DFS guy, Buddy Hield has a nice match-up versus the Portland Trailblazers. Hield hasn’t been his usual self and hasn’t been returning value since January 5th. He is currently averaging 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist per game. The Kings are a very young team with a young core, besides De’Aaron Fox and Willie Cauley-Stein, Hield has a usage rate of 25% on this season. The last time the two teams faced off, Hield had close to 50% of his shots falling, recording 27 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assist.

The 6 times that Hield faced off versus C.J. McCollum, Hield is averaging 11 points, 2 rebounds, and 1 assist versus him. But the Trailblazers aren’t the same team as before and guards are getting to exceed their value. The Trailblazers are allowing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. Hield should get back on track tonight versus this Portland Trailblazers team.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Tobias Harris vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Salary: $7,700 – Needs to score 38.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

My night is made completely because I get Buddy Hield and Tobias Harris on the same exact slate! But Tobias Harris gets to face the New Orleans Pelicans in the highest point total night which makes this an even better play. Harris is averaging 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 assist with a usage rate of 24%. But this Clippers team has no true star on it which gives Harris even more opportunities. This Pelicans team is allowing small forwards to average 23 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. We already know what to expect of the pace for this game which is a plus for Tobias Harris.

Going on to sample sizes, Tobias Harris has faced the New Orleans Pelicans 16 times in his career, averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assists. The two have faced off earlier this season where Tobias Harris recorded 27 points and 7 rebounds. But much like others on this slate, Harris has only returned value twice in his past five games so we once again be on the edge of cautious when building a line-up tonight with Tobias Harris.

Other Top Tier Options

Jayson Tatum vs. Brooklyn Nets

Salary: $6,300 – Needs to score 31.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

We don’t really have the deepest of depths when it comes to small forwards tonight on this 6 game slate. Jayson Tatum does get to face the Brooklyn Nets tonight though and that’s always one big exclamation mark. This Boston Celtics team has many weapons though, causing Tatum to have a usage rate of 23% on the season. He’s averaging 16 points, 6 rebounds, and 2 assist per while averaging 31 minutes per game. The Nets are currently allowing small forwards to average 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assist. With a small sample size of just 4 games, Jayson Tatum is averaging 14 points and 4 rebounds versus the Brooklyn Nets. If you aren’t too confident in playing Tobias Harris, Jayson Tatum is the next small forward up.

Low Tier Options

Bogdan Bogdanovic vs. Portland Trailblazers

Salary: $5,600 – Needs to score 28 fantasy points or more to exceed value

With such a slate where it’s just 6 games, targeting the second fastest paced team in the NBA, we’re targeting Bogdan Bogdanovic and the Sacramento Kings. The Sacramento Kings are playing at a pace of 107 possessions per game and can take it up a notch in the fourth which makes Bogdanovic a great salary relief play. Bogdanovic is averaging 15 points, 4 assist, and 4 rebounds per game. In his past five games, Bogdanovic exceeded value in three of those games, scoring 32.5, 38, and 42 fantasy points. Coming off the bench and averaging 23 minutes per game, Bogdanovic is seeing a usage rate of 23%, similar to the starter Jayson Tatum. Bogdanovic did play 36 minutes in their first match-up, recording 19 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assist and a nice 3 steals on top of it. We may not get the same minutes as the first but we should still see Bogdan Bogdanovic usage be the same and return his value tonight.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Anthony Davis vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Salary: $11,600 – Needs to score 58 fantasy points or more to exceed value (75.4 for 6.5x)

Tonight could be the night to build around James Harden and Anthony Davis once again. Averaging 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 assist on the season, Anthony Davis has a usage rate of 29%. He has faced the Los Angeles Clippers 18 times in his career, averaging 22 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assist. Anthony Davis also raises his stat line when he faces off versus Marcin Gortat, averaging 24 points and 12 rebounds. This Los Angeles Clippers team is allowing power forwards to average 22 points, 10 rebounds, and 2 assist per game.

Anthony Davis has only missed value three times in returning value since December 9th which is a great positive tonight. This Clippers team has no true defenders for big men in the paint, giving Anthony Davis a pretty good chance of being one of the more dominate forces on the slate tonight.

Other Top Tier Options

Blake Griffin vs. Utah Jazz

Salary: $9,400 – Needs to score 47 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Blake Griffin is on another level this season as he seems to always be the target of my articles when he’s on the slate. Blake Griffin has returned value pretty often this season and has done so in four of his last five games. He is currently averaging 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assist per season and is averaging 36 minutes. The Utah Jazz are allowing power forwards to average a double double this season with 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. The two teams don’t play at too much of a difference pace with the Pistons playing at 104 possessions and the Jazz playing at 102 possessions. The one downside is that this game is the second lowest point total of the night with just a total of 209 points. But if Blake Griffin can play like his usual self, this will be no setback for the man as he has found ways to be dominate all season long.

Low Tier Options

Marcus Morris vs. Brooklyn Nets

Salary: $5,800 – Needs to score 29 fantasy points or more to exceed value

The Boston Celtics have found a way to use Marcus Morris and it has been showing very well lately. Surpassing his value three straight games, scoring 36.5, 33.5, and 30 fantasy points in a row. He gets to face the Brooklyn Nets and we know what that means, lock him in as big men dominate Brooklyn. Marcus Morris is averaging 15 points and 6 rebounds in 27 minutes per game this season. Morris is currently at a usage rate of 21%. Brooklyn is currently allowing power forwards to average 22 points and 10 rebounds per game, the double double whammy for us.

In 16 games versus the Brooklyn Nets, Morris is averaging 12 points, 5 rebounds, and 2 assist. In the match-up earlier this month, Morris was almost non-existent across the stat board with just 12 points, 1 rebound and 1 assist. So going to him once against is a risk but it also frees up salary plus if he gets the hot hand going, he’ll easily exceed his value.

NBA Draftkings – Top Tier

Jusuf Nurkic vs. Sacramento Kings

Salary: $8,600 – Needs to score 43 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Repeating time? We are hoping so! Nurkic just came off a 82.8 fantasy point game versus the Sacramento Kings on January 1st to kick his 2019 off. In that game, he recorded 24 points, 23 rebounds, 7 assist, 5 blocks, and 5 steals in 38 minutes. On the season, Nurkic is averaging 15 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assist with a usage rate of 24%. He gets to face a Sacramento Kings defense that has no true dominate force in the paint and are allowing centers to average 23 points and 19 rebounds. We do need to be cautious as Nurkic could be chalk with everyone of us hoping for the same outcome once again.

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Jusuf Nurkic has only returned value in two of his past five games though. The Sacramento Kings are playing at the second fastest pace with 108 possessions per game while the Portland Trailblazers are playing at 103 possessions per game. This game does have the second highest total of the night which is giving Jusuf Nurkic that much more upside on a nice sized slate.

Other Top Tier Options

Andre Drummond vs. Utah

Salary: $8,700 – Needs to score 43.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Going back to the game with the second lowest total, Andre Drummond has a great match-up that we can’t avoid. He is currently averaging 17 points and 15 rebounds, almost joining the 20/20 club this season. He has a usage rate of 24% and is averaging 44 fantasy points game, equaling 1.3 fantasy points per minute. The Utah Jazz are allowing centers to average 21 points and 14 rebounds per game. Andre Drummond has faced the Utah Jazz 12 times in his career, averaging 12 points and 12 rebounds versus them. The two teams just faced off on January 5th where Drummond recorded 15 points and 18 rebounds. Drummond is the second toughest center to fade tonight behind Nurkic which might mean we make a couple line-ups to cover up all options.

Low Tier Options

Willie Cauley-Stein vs. Portland Trialblazers

Salary: $7,000 – Needs to score 35 fantasy points or more to exceed value

Now the last time the Kings faced off versus the Trailblazers, Willie Cauley-Stein did not fare that well but we’ll go back to him once again because when Willie gets the hot hand, it’s easy for him to exceed his value. On the season, Willie Cauley-Stein is averaging 13 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. But his usage rate is pretty low being at 20% due to the Kings focusing on De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield. The positive note for right now, Cauley-Stein has exceed value in four of his past five games, scoring 44.3, 28.3, 40.3, 43, and 40 fantasy points.

In 11 games versus the Trailblazers, Cauley-Stein has been okay, just averaging 11 points and just 7 rebounds. In their first match-up, Cauley-Stein recorded 5 points and 11 rebounds, with just 3 assists. Willie Cauley-Stein can easily do better with his shot falling tonight and should be low owned, giving an upper hand in contests if used.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all of your DFS needs. We have the NBA, PGA, tour, the NFL playoffs, and the EPL all covered!