Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Monday January 14

SALT LAKE CITY, UT – DECEMBER 25: Damian Lillard #0 of the Portland Trail Blazers brings the ball up the court during their game against the Utah Jazz at the Vivint Smart Home Arena on December 25, 2018 in Salt Lake City , Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images) Fantasy Basketball Top Plays /

Welcome into the Monday edition of Top Plays and Fades! We have six games in front of us with two of the biggest names in the game to choose from.

Monday is going to be very interesting to see how it shakes out. Once again, James Harden is on the slate and he’s not even as expensive as yesterday. However, you can make a strong argument that Anthony Davis could be very close or potentially surpass Harden in fantasy points tonight. On paper, the matchup is better for Davis but let’s face it – Harden is matchup proof. The one thing Davis does have going for him in spades is his game features the highest over/under on the slate and it’s not particularly close. When we get those kind of games with a close spread(like three points), it should get your attention. Let’s see who else we’re looking at tonight in our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

*Note – If Kyrie Irving is ruled out for the Celtics, Terry Rozier becomes utter chalk on this slate

Top Play – Damian Lillard, Blazers

If this isn’t the spot for Lillard to go off, I’m not exactly sure when we can trust him to produce at a high end level for the rest of the season. The only small knock on him is he’s on a back to back but it’s not a massive concern. Even at the 38 minutes he played, I still have faith he’ll be at his normal minutes against on of the fastest pace teams in the league.

The pace the Kings play at could be part of the reason they give up so much fantasy production to point guards. On the season, they have surrendered the fifth most DK points, ninth most real points, third most rebounds, fifth most assists and fourth most made three pointers. Lillard could not ask for more and he might go a little under-owned, given the construction of the slate.

Honorable Mention – Elfrid Payton, Pelicans as I want as many pieces of the late game as I can get

Fade – Derrick White, Spurs

White is actually having a pretty nice season but I think I’ll be drawing the line tonight on this price. He’s still seeing a big bump for the massive game he had in the double overtime affair against the Thunder and there is too much risk for the floor to creep up on him tonight.

On the season, White is only carrying a 17.5 percent usage rate and is just under 0.85 FPPM. That’s nothing to write home about and even though the Hornets are a pretty solid matchup, it’s hard to just not play Payton for a few hundred more on each site. White is best served as an option when the price is a little lower and he’s a pass when I need every dollar I can on this slate.

Honorable Mention – Mike Conley, Grizzlies

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA – DECEMBER 21: Bogdan Bogdanovic #8 of the Sacramento Kings reacts after making a basket against the Memphis Grizzlies at Golden 1 Center on December 21, 2018 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kings

On FanDuel, I can see playing Buddy Hield ahead of Bogdanovic simply because the price is basically the same. Hield tends to be a little more scoring dependent than Bogdanovic is so that makes me lean away from him when it makes sense. I think it does especially on DK because the salary is $1,000 apart. On the season, Hield has the advantage on usage but the FPPM is virtually identical at 1.03 for Hield and 1.02 for Bogdanovic.

The matchup has the potential to be very juicy as well. Portland has struggled with wing players all season long and this game should be up and down with plenty of production on both ends. Even with Iman Shumpert back in action, there’s still enough minutes to make it work tonight. My path as of this writing is playing Harden and then filling in with as many pieces as I can from the late games and Bogdanovic fits the bill perfectly.

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Jazz – he’s been a fantasy force without Ricky Rubio, it’s just a matter of if you can pay for him tonight

Fade – Jrue Holiday, Pelicans

I’ve spent most of the article talking about the late games but this is one player that I’m not very comfortable with at this point. Holiday is still playing a massive amount of minutes, behind only Bradley Beal, Harden and team mate Anthony Davis. While I’m usually willing to chase minutes with any player, the price is too high for Holiday given his current situation.

One of the reasons we were willing to pay the current price for Holiday was because Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton were out of the lineup for so long. It’s been a very limited sample size so far but with everyone on the floor, Holiday sits at 1.18 FPPM. With those two off the floor, he sits at 1.20 which is obviously not a big difference. However, the sample hasn’t normalized yet because Payton has played 312 minutes on the season with everyone else. The salary just doesn’t allow for a ceiling unless he has a crazy outlier game.

Honorable Mention – Jeremy Lamb, Hornets

LOS ANGELES, CA – NOVEMBER 05: Danilo Gallinari #8 of the LA Clippers celebrates his three pointer during a 120-109 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves at Staples Center on November 5, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Danilo Gallinari, Clippers

Give me as much as I can handle from this game. One of the weaknesses the Pelicans have had for quite some time now is they cannot handle wings, and Gallo fits the bill exactly. In two meetings so far this season, Gallinari has averaged 24 points, which is 5.5 over his seasonal average. One of he or Tobias Harris is likely going to have a really big game, but the other should still be very safe for cash.

The Pelicans are giving up the eighth most three point shot attempts on the season and giving up an average of seven made three’s a night. That’s good for the bottom 10 in the NBA and Gallo averages about 5.5 three point shot attempts just on his own. He’s shooting over 44 percent from beyond the arc this season and the Pelicans are going to struggle guarding this whole team. In addition, both teams are top 10 in pace which is going to afford even more opportunity than normal.

Honorable Mention – Davis Bertans, Spurs with Rudy Gay still out

Fade – Gordon Hayward, Celtics

Hayward has been a fade for me fairly often so far this year but I’m using him again tonight just in case Kyrie Irving is out. Even if Kyrie takes a seat tonight, I still don’t really want to use Hayward because he has been so wildly inconsistent. Sure, I’ll miss out on the two 40+ fantasy point games he had, but I also miss a lot more games where he’s held under 20 fantasy points and under 30 minutes a night.

I’m not quite sure why he’s not getting more run right now. When the Celtics are healthy, they do have plenty of players to share the minutes with. Still, it doesn’t make the most sense to me that Hayward can play 30 plus if they really need him to but he can’t get minutes otherwise. Until something changes drastically for the Celtics, I’m staying away with to without Kyrie.

Honorable Mention – Nicholas Batum, Hornets

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 28: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans dunks the ball during the second half of a game against the Golden State Warriors at Smoothie King Center on October 28, 2016 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Anthony Davis, Pelicans

Is everyone out there ready for some famous last words? I think you can conceivably fade James Harden in GPP only. For cash, I’m still leaning Harden just because the man is on a different planet than the rest of us right now. However, there are factors that could have the Brow as the king of fantasy points tonight.

The first is what Vegas thinks. The current over/under for the Rockets game is 205 points. That’s nice, but the Pelicans game sits at 239 points, which is a massive difference. Secondly, Harden is on a back to back. Do I think that’s a big factor? No, but it does need to be pointed out. Especially on FD, you can play Davis and Donovan Mitchell at SG and eschew Harden.

Oh, let’s talk about the matchup for Davis. He sits ninth in paint touches at 9.4 a game and seventh in paint points. The Clippers just so happen to be next to last in paint points given up and eighth worst in paint rebounds. Is it a risk? Yes. Could it backfire? Without a doubt. Sometimes, fortune favors the bold and Davis could be more important than Harden tonight.

Honorable Mention – Marvin Bagley, Kings

Fade – Blake Griffin, Pistons

Just in case you may have missed it between NFL and the game not being on a main slate, the Blake Show went back to play the Clippers and he went full on crazy. 40 real points and over 70 fantasy points later, he rolls into Utah at a super high price. That’s totally deserved after what he just did, but that doesn’t mean I have to pay for him.

Griffin being the third most expensive player on this slate makes it very difficult to want to play him. For one, his game has one of the lower totals right now. For another, if you have the salary it’ll be hard to not use “Point Mitchell” on the other side of this game. Griffin will likely have close to a normal game for him, but give the slate and his price after the revenge game, I’m likely all the way out on him tonight.

Honorable Mention – Derrick Favors, Jazz

BOSTON, MA – APRIL 30: Al Horford #42 of the Boston Celtics celebrates after scoring against the Philadelphia 76ers during the second quarter of Game One of Round Two of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden on April 30, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Al Horford, Celtics

This slate is pretty interesting for the center position. There’s not really a matchup that stands out among the “elite” centers on the slate. Clint Capela will take on Marc Gasol while Andre Drummond squares off against Rudy Gobert. None of those players are going to come cheaply, so I’m likely opting to play Horford tonight because the matchup he draws and the fact he finally hit the 30 minute barrier in this past game.

More from FanSided

Horford draws the absolute best matchup a center can get since he takes on the Nets and we saw him hit 30 DK points in limited minutes a few games ago. I would like to get word that the minutes limit is officially gone and this wasn’t just a fluke because if you give Horford 28-30 in this spot, he’ll have a great shot at 6x. The Nets are in the bottom half of the league in almost every category against centers, leaving the crafty veteran as one of the best underrated plays on the slate.

Honorable Mention – Jusuf Nurkic, Blazers but he is very expensive

Fade – Willie Cauley-Stein, Kings

Cauley-Stein has been a favorite of this article on many nights but this is one spot where I’m looking elsewhere. The Kings center has really strung together some strong performances of late, exceeding 40 points on both sites for three games straight. Part of that is his minutes have stayed mostly the same despite the return of Marvin Bagley. That is encouraging in the long run, because that wasn’t always the case when Bagley was healthy earlier. Playing that well does have some consequences because the price tends to reflect hot streaks and that’s the case with Cauley-Stein. Not only is the price elevated compared to what he usually is, but the matchup is really not great.

Portland has been very stingy to opposing centers, giving up only the sixth fewest DK points and being a top eight unit in points and rebounds given up to centers. Part of that is Jusuf Nurkic and he only played 25 minutes on the front end of the back to back last night. I would expect him to see the court for the majority of the time that Cauley-Stein does. A tough matchup and a high price point make WCS a relatively easy player to skip tonight.

Honorable Mention – Marc Gasol, Grizzlies

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