Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Monday, January 14

Good day and greetings from your fantasy NBA best plays to win host and avid DFS player.

Today we have an interesting slate so let’s get started with the biggest and most important question – what to do with the 2 salary giants, Harden and Davis?

As you know I have been advocating Harden as a core roster and have penciled him in as a fantasy NBA best plays lock ever since the injury to Chris Paul.  However, this may be the first time we cannot randomly click the roster button.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 30th in pace – that’s dead last.  LAST.  Harden’s salary of $12,400 on DraftKings does not factor in any pace reduction so if there is anytime to fade a large salary, this is it.

Harden played 43 minutes on Sunday, by far more than any other player from either team, so this back to back affair will have some effect on his court time tonight.

The other monster salary giant is Anthony Davis, the Pelicans super star.  He is in the exact opposite setting as James Harden.

New Orleans is 6th in pace while the Clippers are 9th.  Together they boast a game total of 240, one of the highest I’ve ever seen in a regular NBA season game.  It’s also 36 points higher than the game Harden is playing in, making Davis almost a must start and build around.

On DraftKings, it would be very difficult to roster both Harden and Davis, as together the lineup would only have $4333 left per person with 6 spots to fill.  We could not find enough value on the rest of the slate to support that strategy, at least not at this time.

Without significant injuries near game time that would open up cheap yet good point producers, we are left with almost a must FADE on Harden.  When have we ever said that before.  Not often if ever.

Let’s use Anthony Davis as a core play, and build around him as best we can.

Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Value Rosters:

The first place we should look is the Pelican vs Clipper game itself.  This game holds 2 big advantages for us fantasy players, namely a very high game total and a tight competitive spread.  Vegas oddsmakers are expecting this game to be a close down to the wire affair, thus forcing both teams to see an extended run from their starters.

Nikola Mirotic ($5700), New Orleans
This will be his 3rd game back from injury and he is projected to play at least 30 minutes off the bench.  That’s more than enough on an average night for him to cover this salary let alone a 240 total game.

Julius Randle ($7400), New Orleans
He is entrenched ahead of Mirotic because he is playing so well.  He comes with a hefty 55 projected ceiling and had a huge game in December against the Clippers scoring 37 points while collecting 8 rebounds.

Elfrid Payton ($5900) and Jrue Holiday ($8000), New Orleans
These 2 guards should also be in the player pool.  Last game against the Clippers Holiday scored 32 points while dishing out 14 assists.  Those lofty numbers should be somewhat diminished by Payton who was not in that game.  Payton supplies around 1 DraftKings point per minute while Holiday has a 56 projected ceiling.

Tobias Harris ($7700), LA Clippers
He should have a field day here.  Last game against New Orleans he led his team with 27 points while gathering in 6 rebounds.  Expect more of the same tonight.

Danilo Gallinari ($7200), LA Clippers
Of the Clipper starters, only Harris and Gallinari supply a good portion of DraftKings points.  This narrow focus will be needed in this game to get us ahead.

Lou Williams ($6700), LA Clippers
As a high volatile 6th man he should shine off the bench.  He comes with a 53 projected ceiling and should love the hectic pace.

Fantasy NBA Best Plays To Win – Salary Savers:

Terry Rozier ($3700), Boston
He’s had an awful 2 games off the bench which has dropped his salary, but if Kyrie Irving is ruled out (he is currently questionable), Rozier would be a great play as a starter.  He should see over 33 minutes of court time and should easily cover $3700 with the possibility of a big game with the increased usage.

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Gordon Haywood ($5700), Boston
Another superb play providing Irving is out.  Haywood would be running the 2nd unit and could easily make us over 40 DraftKings points.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5600), Sacramento
This is another good game to target with its high 227 game total.  Sacramento sports the 2nd highest team in pace and likes to dictate that clip especially at home.  Both Willie Cauley-Stein ($7000) and De’Aaron Fox ($7800) are great mid-tier players, with Bogdanovic an erratic point earner off the bench who should thrive at this expected pace and play well tonight.

Royce O’Neale ($4700), Utah
His salary is climbing but still too low for a starter.  He records nearly 1 DraftKings point per minute and is averaging 38 minutes in that role since entering the starting lineup 2 games ago.

Derrick White ($5400), San Antonio
The Spurs find themselves in an up tempo game themselves as an 8 point favorite.  White has been given good minutes lately, comes with a 45 projected ceiling and should cover his salary in this spot.

Derrick Favors ($5300), Utah
This is not a high-octane game choice but the Pistons defense is weak against centers, and Favors seems to always be on the verge of a double double via points and rebounds.  He provides a high floor and while there is not much probability of a big game, he does get his court time and should cover his salary expectations.

Marvin Bagley ($4800), Sacramento
He comes off the bench but is a consistent 1 DraftKings points per minute producer.  With this 240 game total he’s worth a try because could easily see extra usage within the same court time.

Good luck to us!