NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks: January 14th, 2019
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks articles!
Happy Monday CPR faithful! After rounding out this last weekend with a Double OT thriller between the Raptors and Wizards yesterday, we turn our attention to a 6-game Monday night NBA slate that is sure to be ripe with fantasy value.
As I’ve mentioned in my previous stacking articles, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on and I will recommend what I view to be the best way to stack the teams on the slate.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
As a reminder, the format will walk you through my top game stack, a secondary game stack, a GPP stack for leverage and the top value stack. Let’s get to it!
Primary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Clippers
Pelicans Team Ranks:
Pace: 6th
Offensive Efficiency: 4th
Defensive Efficiency: 26th
If you’re wondering what criteria makes up the perfect game stack, you have it here tonight; two teams that rank top 10 in the league in pace, and bottom 6 in defensive efficiency. We should see a ton of offense in this late-night hammer game tonight as the Pelicans return to the stacks articles. With a healthy roster, we have plenty of routes to go to get exposure. If you choose to stack this game (you should), the below pieces are the targets to hone in on for New Orleans:
Anthony Davis ($12.7k FD / $11.8k DK): The obvious play for the Pels, but I fully expect his ownership to be sub-20% due to having James Harden on the slate, making him a top stud in GPP formats. Davis rocks a team-high 31% usage rate and produces at an elite 1.64 fppm rate. The matchup is one that extremely exploitable, as the Clippers rank bottom 5 in the NBA against opposing centers, allowing an average of 60.1 FDP and 58.9 DKP per game.
Jrue Holiday ($8.5k FD / $8.0k DK): Even with Elfrid Payton back, Holiday has still seen his production remain steady. With Pat Beverley guarding Payton, this should free up space for Holiday on the offensive end. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged 21.4 points, 6.2 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game, making him a fantastic cash-game play.
Julius Randle ($8.1k FD / $7.4k DK): Even with Mirotic back, Randle has continued to start alongside Anthony Davis at the 4. He owns the 2nd highest usage rate on the team (27.5%) and has averaged 21.6 points and 9 rebounds per game over his last 10. He’s another player that should come in at little-to-no ownership and could be the difference maker in a GPP.
Nikola Mirotic ($6.1k FD / $5.7k DK): While he’s still being eased back in after returning from injury, Mirotic topped 25 minutes last game and comes in extremely cheap tonight. Assuming he comes off of the bench again, he could see a higher usage rate than his normal 23.1% as he’d lead the second unit in a game with a 239 O/U.
Primary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Clippers
Clippers Team Ranks:
Pace: 9th
Offensive Efficiency: 7th
Defensive Efficiency: 25th
Like I said above, this game could be a fantasy gold-mine with a 239 point over/under and two up-tempo offenses countered with below average defenses. The Clippers’ side is full of some of the best mid-tier plays on the slate and frankly, I don’t expect them to garner a ton of attention. Below are some key mid-tier plays that are a great part of a game stack:
Montrezl Harrell ($7.8k FD / $7.1k DK): Harrell isn’t the easiest asset to trust, as he’s only averaged 25.3 minutes per game over his last 10 games, but his per-minute production is where he becomes viable. On the season, he’s producing at a 1.25 FPPM clip and in an up-tempo game with a 2.5-point spread, he could push for 32-34 minutes, heightening his ceiling.
Tobias Harris ($7.6k FD / $7.7k DK): Over his last 5 games against the Pelicans, Harris has averaged 23.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1 steal in 35.1 minutes per contest. The matchup against Anthony Davis won’t be easy, but could provide heightened opportunity for peripheral stats and minutes in the mid-to-high 30s.
Lou Williams ($6.6k FD / $6.7k DK): While I typically wouldn’t recommend targeting SGs against Jrue Holiday, this situation is different with Williams coming off of the bench. As the sixth man, he holds the highest usage rate on the Clippers (32.9%) and is also producing at a surprisingly elite 1.20 FPPM clip. As a team, New Orleans also allows the 7th most DKP per game to SGs, despite Holiday’s elite perimeter defense, strengthening the case for Williams tonight.
Secondary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
Blazers Team Ranks:
Pace: 18th
Offensive Efficiency: 11th
Defensive Efficiency: 15th
The Blazers come into a game tonight against the surprisingly decent Kings’ team in a massive pace-up spot as the Kings rank 16 places higher in terms of pace than the Blazers. This boosts the fantasy value of virtually everyone who will see the court, led by the core four of the Blazers below:
Damian Lillard ($9.4k FD / $8.8k DK): His price is rising on FanDuel, but he remains a great point-per-dollar option below $9k on DraftKings. His matchup (De’Aaron Fox) holds a negative DRPM, making this an enticing up-tempo matchup. His 31.6% usage rate is tops on the team and his elbow injury seems irrelevant, as he played 38 minutes last game and posted 26 points, 7 assists and 4 rebounds.
CJ McCollum ($6.9k FD / $6.8k DK): McCollum has taken a bit more of a backseat this season but that’s also kept his salary at a very reasonable level. He’s been able to take advantage of the smash spots as of late, posting 24 points against the Bulls and 30 against the Hornets last week. He comes into another one tonight as the Kings rank 8th worst in the league against opposing SGs, allowing 41.2 FDP and 42.3 DKP per game.
Jusuf Nurkic ($8.8k FD / $8.6k DK): This price may seem steep, but frankly, Nurkic is arguably my favorite play at center tonight and shouldn’t be extremely high owned. Minutes have been the most frustrating part of rostering Nurkic, but when given the chance, he delivers. He holds a 25% usage rate and 1.36 FPPM production clip against a SAC defense that ranks 9th worst against centers. In his last game against the Kings, he posted a 24-point 23-rebound double double with 7 assists, 5 blocks and 5 steals in 38 minutes. Take advantage of this spot in all formats.
Evan Turner ($4.5k FD / $4.4k DK): I will continue to recommend the versatile wing as long as Maurice Harkless remains sidelined. Turner has topped 20 FDP in 4 of his last 5 games and has posted 10+ points in 4 of 5 as well. He’s the perfect value play in this game environment as someone who racks up peripheral stats. If Harkless misses this contest, he’s an excellent value play.
Secondary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
Kings Team Ranks:
Pace: 2nd
Offensive Efficiency: 12th
Defensive Efficiency: 20th
While I assume most NBA fans are just as surprised as I am with the success the Kings are having this season, they’re just a downright fun team to watch. They play fast, like, really fast, led by PG De’Aaron Fox. They aren’t typically a team that we actively look to target in a stack, but tonight’s matchup and expectedly close spread make the following players viable:
De’Aaron Fox ($8.6k FD / $7.8k DK): Much like Lillard, his price is a bit high on FanDuel but is extremely reasonable on DraftKings. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 17.4 points, 6.2 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 2.4 steals in 30.5 minutes per game, continuing to produce on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Damian Lillard is also not a great defensive point guard, ranking 79th out of 97 eligible PGs in defensive real plus/minus (-1.50).
Willie Cauley-Stein ($7.5k FD / $7.0k DK): If you don’t feel comfortable going up to Nurkic in this game, WCS is a great alternative. Over his last 5 games, he has posted 4 double-doubles and has topped 40 FDP in 4 of the 5 games, the outlier being a 17 minute outing against the Magic in which he still posted an 11-11 double-double. The matchup inside against Nurkic isn’t necessarily attractive, but it’s also not menacing as the Blazers rank in the middle of the pack against opposing centers. WCS is a great way to get a low-owned center with great recent form in what should be a competitive game.
Buddy Hield ($6.5k FD / $6.6k DK): While his recent form has not been ideal, Buddy Hield has been playing fantastic basketball this season. He snapped out of a bit of a mini-slump last game, posting 21 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists in 30 minutes against the Hornets. In his last outing against the Blazers (1/1/19), Hield posted 27 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 block in 39 minutes. If this game stays close, we could see a similar outing tonight.
Top GPP + Value NBA Daily Fantasy Stack: Utah Jazz (vs DET)
Jazz Team Ranks:
Pace: 16th
Offensive Efficiency: 20th
Defensive Efficiency: 5th
Typically I separate my top GPP stack and my top value stack, but they happened to fall into the same team on tonight’s slate, as the Jazz have some of the best value plays on the slate while their studs are in a great spot but should go over-looked given the other expensive options on the slate.
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Donovan Mitchell ($8.8k FD / $9.2k DK): Mitchell has now posted at least 49 FDP in three straight games, averaging 33.3 points, 7.3 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. The absence of all 3 Jazz PGs have forced Mitchell into a facilitator role on top of his scoring role, making him one of the top plays on the slate. I do, however, expect his ownership to be lower with the masses flocking to James Harden. He makes for a great SG2 on FanDuel, where I expect everyone to pay down.
Rudy Gobert ($9.5k FD / $8.4k DK): Gobert is another Jazz player in great recent form, averaging 13.3 points, 15.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.5 blocks in 36.5 minutes per game over his last 4 games. The matchup with Andre Drummond is one that provides a heap of upside, as Gobert should see all the minutes he can handle and will be constantly battling on the glass. He’s right up there with Nurkic as my favorite C option tonight.
Joe Ingles ($6.3k FD / $6.1k DK): I wrote up Ingles on Friday and I will do so again even though he didn’t quite live up to expectations. The versatile forward should continue to see an expanded role without any healthy PGs on the Jazz. He saw 30 minutes last game as well as a spike in volume, as he attempted 14 FGs (10 of them were 3s). He’s averaged 15.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.0 assists over his last 3 games and while he may not be a 7-8x player, he seems super safe for cash game contests.
Royce O’Neale ($4.9k FD / $4.7k DK): With the lack of backcourt depth for Utah, O’Neale has stepped up over his last 2 games, averaging 37.5 minutes per game while posting 12.5 points, 9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1 block per game. If he sees anything close to 30 minutes, he should be an auto-lock at his sub-5k salary across both sites.
Jae Crowder ($4.8k FD / $4.5k DK): While Crowder has struggled to score consistently (double-digit points in only 1 of his last 5 games), he has consistently studded the stat sheet in the peripheral categories. He’s recorded 4 blocks and 3 steals over the last two games and has topped 21 FDP in 6 of his last 7 games. If he can improve his offensive output a bit, he could smash value at his cheap price.
Next. DraftKings NBA DFS Slate Breakdown - Monday, January 14. dark