NCAA Basketball Underdog Picks: Monday, January 14th

Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NCAA basketball picks. This recurring series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball picks (money lines mostly) that pay a nice return but come with heavy risk. I mean, who wants to bet on the favorite anyways?

With a relatively quiet night in the NCAA, our options are fairly limited in terms of underdog teams that offer some real value. Coming off of an oddly predictable evening in which all the ranked favorites won, tonight should hopefully offer a bit more carnage compared to last night.

NCAA Basketball Picks:

Northern Colorado @ Montana State (+135)

Despite their 7-8 record, Montana State has been on a roll since entering Big Sky Conference play going 4-1 so far. While Northern Colorado also boasts a 4-1 conference record, their overall record is propped up due to the fact that Montana State faced slightly tougher out of conference opponents (ranking 306th compared to 324th in strength of schedule) on the year.

Both teams boast excellent offenses that average nearly 80 points per game, however, neither team offers much resistance on the defensive side of the ball. Looking back at Montana State’s 3 game win streak, it is clear that their offense has kicked it up another gear as they have scored 77, 84, and 98 points in their last 3 matchups. On the flipside, Northern Colorado is coming off a 64 points dud in a loss to Montana.

Expect Montana State’s Tyler Hall to come out firing on all cylinders in what should be an exciting and high-scoring game. This game should probably be a pick em, but isn’t because of Montana State’s overall record. Montana State is the hotter team playing in front of their home crowd. Don’t overthink this one and let one of the Big Sky’s best players, Hall, lead his team to another conference victory.

Pick: Montana State (+135)

Monmouth (+190) @ Siena

Monmouth and Siena match up in a showdown of two struggling teams. With a combined record of 9-24, these two teams haven’t had much success at all on the year. While Siena does boast twice as many wins as Monmouth, they actually have a worse conference record with 2 of Monmouth’s 3 wins coming in the MAAC. Monmouth has played stellar defense in those two wins, holding MAAC members Manhattan and St. Peter’s to both under 50 points.

Meanwhile, Siena hasn’t held an opponent to under 50 points all year and regularly allow teams to score north of 70 points on them. Although Monmouth struggled with their lack of defense to start the year, the fact remains that of these two programs, Monmouth is the one to show actual improvement on that end as the year goes on.

Despite Siena owning a slightly stronger overall record on the year, history points to Monmouth in previous matchups. Going 7-1 SU across their last 8 showdowns, it is clear that Monmouth’s head coach, King Rice, simply understands how Siena is going to attack the Hawks year in, year out.

When looking at a matchup between two teams struggling as hard as Monmouth and Siena have been, I always lean with the hot team. Monmouth has picked up all 3 of their wins on the season in their last 5 games, going 3-2. The two losses came at the hands of perennial MAAC powers Iona and Quinnipiac. Meanwhile, Siena has gone 2-3 while only posting wins over 6-10 Marist and 4-11 Cal Poly. Look for Monmouth to clamp down on defense like they have against other MAAC bottom feeders en route to a win here.

Pick: Monmouth (+190)

Syracuse (+1400) @ Duke

I did put a disclaimer at the top of the article for a reason. Duke should wipe the floor with Syracuse as they are by and far the better team. Even if the Blue Devils do have to play without freshman phenom Zion Williamson, they showed against FSU they have the firepower to keep up with the best teams in the nation. With all of that said, Syracuse poses an odd challenge for Duke and tonight just may be the perfect storm for an upset.

While the Blue Devils were able to fight back and win against FSU in the absence of Williamson, our sample size without Zion is very small. If he can’t go, we’ve yet to see what a full game plan of Zion-less Duke basketball would look like. Especially when you consider that Zion is the ideal player to collapse Syracuse’s notorious zone defense, losing him for the affair hurts.

Speaking of Syracuse’s zone, it should offer up a unique challenge to Duke. You beat a zone defense with penetration, passing, and 3 point shooting. Zion offers Duke an elite talent at all 3 facets and his absence will be sorely felt should he find himself unable to suit up. While RJ Barrett should find himself success driving to the rack, he isn’t the natural passer that Williamson is and will need to make smart reads in order to overcome the 2-3 zone. Even if Zion can play, Cam Reddish and his 3 point shooting will likely be the key to this one as he should find himself on the receiving end of a ton of open looks from deep.

If Reddish gets hot and starts knocking down shots beyond the reach of the Orange zone, Duke should coast to a victory. However, for +1400 odds, I’ll take the veteran Orange squad playing an established brand of defense against a young, injured, and streaky shooting (albeit WAY more talented) Duke team.

Pick: Syracuse +1400

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for more College basketball betting picks along with DFS picks for the NBA, PGA, NFL, EPL, and whatever else they come out with!