DraftKings NBA Picks January 15: Jokic is wild against the Warriors

DraftKings NBA Picks January 15: Jokic is wild

We have another six pack of games to crack open on Tuesday night. It is even more stacked than Monday with six players in five figures and Curry at $9,900. We really need to weed out the upper tier to make sure we can field a competitive lineup.

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Despite another 77.75 DraftKings points from Harden, last night was a disaster. Mitchell, Marcus Morris, Rozier, Nurkic, Horford, O’Neale, and JaMychal Green were all nowhere near value. My best lineup finished at 262.75 and the money line was all the way up to 296.5.

shawnzhan took it down with 376.5 DraftKings points. He built around Gobert, Davis, D’Angelo Russell, and Celtics value.

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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Russell Westbrook ($11,600): This isn’t like last night where we have unfadeable plays at the top. We could fade Russ at this price. After all, he only put up 51.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Atlanta. We’ve been riding Harden for three weeks. That’s not enough. If we spend almost $12k on a player, we better damn well get 70. That’s not happening tonight. Westbrook is probably the most sure thing on the slate for 50 though. What’s that worth to you?

Stephen Curry ($9,900): Curry put up a solid 46 points in the first meeting with Denver, but that still wouldn’t hit value tonight. However, it would come a lot closer than Westbrook. Curry has scored at least 35 points in every game that he has played his full compliment of minutes since the calendar flipped to 2019. We can reasonably expect that Curry will score more than the 30 he put up against Denver the first time, which points to him hitting value tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Kris Dunn ($6,900): The Warriors shut down Dunn even before all the starters got pulled, but if you take out that disaster of a game, Dunn has not been under 30 DraftKings points since his first game back. That’s a pretty good floor. I don’t think the Lakers blow out the Bulls without LeBron. If we look at what the Cleveland guards did to the Lakers on Sunday, Dunn has pretty good upside here. He should hit 30 with ease here, and could come close to 40.

Derrick Rose ($5,900): Rose missed Saturday after returning on Friday, but he should be good to go tonight. Most reports indicate that Saturday’s absence was just to make sure he didn’t overdo it on his ankle. This is a good spot for Rose against Philly, especially if he plays off the ball most of the night. The Sixers don’t defend off the ball all that well, and Rose still has some wiggle left.

Dark Horses:

Darren Collison ($5,000): Collison is being bothered by a sore leg, so there is a chance he sits against the Suns. We sure hope not. Collison put up 35.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Suns. Those numbers are a bit inflated because Oladipo missed that game, but Collison has broken 30 DraftKings points twice in the last three games despite not playing more than 27 minutes. There is good upside here.

Cory Joseph ($3,300): This gets tricky because Joseph is listed as questionable as well. If Joseph can play and Collison doesn’t, this is a fantastic value play. If they are both out, this opens the door for Aaron Holiday. If we have Holiday as the only healthy point guard for the Pacers, he is going to smash for $3,100. Oladipo will probably see more run with Holiday coming off the bench, but Holiday will still play more than enough to hit value for that price.

My pick: Dunn(PG); N/A

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Devin Booker ($8,400): Booker has lost some time recently to nagging injuries, and it may have actually helped the Suns out. The return of Booker is disappointing for us DFS bargain hunters, but using Booker himself may not be a bad idea. The Suns have already said that Booker wont be on a minutes limit, and he racked up 42 DraftKings points on the Pacers in the first meeting. That is exactly 5x value if he can do it again.

Victor Oladipo ($7,800): Oladipo has been nothing short of awful. averaging just 27 DraftKings points in the last four games. I only want Oladipo if he is going to be running the offense, so this play hinges on whether Collison and Joseph are out. If either one of them play, I’m not that big on Oladipo, even for this bargain price. I want to see something from him first, but Phoenix is a very good matchup for him if you want to take the plunge anyway.

Honorable Mention:

Zach LaVine ($6,800): LaVine has scored 33 or more DraftKings points in all but one of the last five games. He and Dunn are both playing well right now, and the Lakers don’t defend off the ball very well. As far as that goes, they are having trouble with the point as well. I have no issue with a Bulls stack here. I don’t see this as a high scoring game, but the Bulls rotations are pretty set again. LaVine and Dunn see more than enough action for them to pay off here.

Khris Middleton ($6,800): I usually leave Middleton alone when Giannis is on the floor. However, Middleton did put up 35.75 DraftKings points on Miami in the first meeting. If Richardson is forced to miss the game or is limited because of the knee tendinitis, Middleton could be in for an even better night tonight.

Dark Horses:

Malcolm Brogdon ($5,700): Just lock him in already. Brogdon is arguably the most consistent player on any slate. He has at least 5x value in eight of the last ten games without coming in under 4x value. That is invaluable in cash games, and with seven of those totals cracking 30, Brogdon has plenty of GPP upside as well. There is no reason not to use him.

Dennis Schroder ($5,400): It’s revenge night for Schroder against the Hawks again. He abused his former team for 36.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting in just 28 minutes of court time. Schroder is usually over that mark, but his minutes have been all over the board lately. I still think Schroder is in a great spot here, especially since he should see good run when this gets out of hand.

My pick: LaVine(SG), Schroder(G); Schroder(SG), Brogdon(PG)

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($9,700): Durant put up 47.75 DraftKings points against the Nuggets, which is right at 5x value. I would trust him a lot more than Giannis tonight. The Heat locked down Giannis in the first meeting and held him to arguably his worst game of the season. This seems like a time to take a modest step down to Durant, who has a much better matchup and much better track record.

Paul George ($9,200): George only put up 34.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Hawks, but that was in 28 minutes earlier in the season. He and Westbrook are coexisting well right now. George has been over 45 DraftKings points in seven of the last ten. I think I would trust the matchup here, but there is a risk of a blowout. For that reason, I’d lean towards Durant.

Honorable Mention:

Justise Winslow ($6,500): Winslow has carved out a nice role for himself in the Miami rotation. He put up 26 DraftKings points in 27 minutes in the first meeting with the Bucks. Winslow has been on a particular roll of late, putting up back to back games of more than 40 DraftKings points. He has solid numbers across the board, and looks like a solid play once again.

T.J. Warren ($6,200): Warren put up 38.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Pacers, so this looks like a very good spot. However, I do wonder what the Suns are going to do about Josh Jackson and Kelly Oubre. Jackson and Oubre both showed off their scoring ability with Booker out. The Suns are trying to develop young players, so are they going to let them continue to run at Warren’s expense? My guess is we will find out with the starting lineup. If someone starts over Warren, I’m a big fan of Jackson or Oubre, but I don’t trust either of them off the bench. Start the SF that the Suns do. If it’s Warren, he should be very good for the price.

Dark Horses:

J.J. Redick ($5,700): All Redick does is score. He has at least 5x value in six of the last eight games. The good part is that his floor is still in the 20’s. His price isn’t much of a value price anymore, but if you are building a balanced lineup, Redick can provide salary relief and good production regardless of if Philly has anyone missing or not.

Andre Iguodala ($3,900): Iggy doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he usually plays a lot of minutes on a good team. His numbers are pedestrian across the board, but if you are on the lookout for a value pick, Iguodala has a much better floor than all of the failed value last night. It’s all going to depend on how you build your roster tonight if you need Iggy or not.

My pick: N/A; Winslow(SF), Iguodala(G)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

John Collins ($7,500): Collins put up 37.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting with the Thunder. He was cold from the floor against the Bucks on Sunday which limited his impact. That and blowouts are the only thing that can slow Collins down. He is a bit of a risk against the Thunder since they are pretty good up front and they could run off with this game. I think I prefer Kuzma and he’s cheaper.

Kyle Kuzma ($7,300): Kuzma is the closest thing the Lakers have to LeBron without him actually being on the court. If you’re looking for the Laker dropping 40’s with regularity, it has to be Kuzma. This isn’t an ideal matchup for Kuzma, but with the way he can score, I would be willing to take a chance here, especially if you are running Bulls.

Honorable Mention:

Jerami Grant ($5,100): I dislike almost everyone in the middle tier of power forwards because of mathcup and/or loss of playing time. Grant didn’t do much in the first matchup against Atlanta, but it was also early enough in the year that he wasn’t starting yet. Grant has 84.5 DraftKings points over the last two games. This could be a big spot for him here.

Dark Horses:

Dario Saric ($4,600): Saric gets a revenge game here against the team that trade him to another team that doesn’t really play him either. Is this a revenge thing? Who knows. All I know is that Saric has done well when given the chance. He played 25 minutes in the first game under coach Ryan Saunders, but hasn’t topped 20 since. I want to use Saric because I like the matchup. I just don’t know if the minutes will be there. You could roll with Taj, but he has no upside at all.

James Johnson ($3,900): Johnson did a lot of damage against Milwaukee in the first meeting, but he also played 30 minutes in that game. Johnson hasn’t played that much since that Milwaukee game before Christmas. Johnson’s minutes seem to be based on matchup though, so the Heat may want to run him against Giannis again since it worked the first time. This could mean hidden value for Johnson.

My pick: Kuzma(SF), Grant(PF); Johnson(PF)

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($10,300): Jokic mauled Portland for a career high 40 points on Sunday. Few teams have been able to slow him down lately, and he is one of my top, if not the top option of the night. Embiid has struggled against Towns in four career games against him. I was on Jokic anyway. That just solidifies it. He put up a strong 46.25 DraftKings points in 32 minutes in that game. Jokic has at least 50 DraftKings points in eight of the last nine games, and has hit 70 a couple of times in that span. I’ll have what he’s having.

Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200): Forget the matchup. Morale and harmony is high in Minnesota right now, and Towns is reaping the rewards. Aside from a foul plagued outing against the Thunder last week, Towns has not been under 55 DraftKings points since Christmas. How do you fade that?

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Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($7,900): Sabonis dominated the Suns in the first meeting for 48 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes! The Suns are better up front than they were earlier in the season, so I don’t expect a repeat, but Sabonis has a strong chance to hit 40 again.

Steven Adams ($7,000): My deal with Adams is the same is with the rest of the Thunder. Massive blowout potential. This is a smash spot for Adams, but it really is for the entire team. You could stack the Thunder, but if this game blows out, you’re sunk.

Dark Horses:

Wendell Carter ($5,300): Carter has a really nice matchup here, but his upside is capped with the frontcourt completely healthy. Still, Carter is going to get the most run up front for the Bulls in a great matchup. That makes him completely worth this price.

Kevon Looney ($4,100): Looney remains one of my favorite go to value plays up front. Dallas did shut him down, but before that, Looney had average 26 DraftKings points per game over the last four. He put up 22 DraftKings points in the first game against Denver. If he gets 22 again, we can be happy with that.

Richaun Holmes ($4,000): Holmes keeps right on rolling. He has 91.25 DraftKings points in just 64 minutes over his last three games. His per minute production ranks up there with the elite, but his playing time isn’t going to increase anytime soon. The Suns are committed to Ayton, and rightfully so. That doesn’t mean that we can’t enjoy his small bursts of dominance though. Just realize his ceiling is 30 not 60.

My pick: Jokic(C), Holmes(F), Looney(UTIL); Jokic(C), Towns(UTIL), Holmes(F)

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