Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Tuesday January 15

Welcome into the Tuesday edition of Top Plays and Fades! We get another six game slate and this one is without James Harden, so we have options!

Any discussion about fading James Harden probably needs to stop until Chris Paul comes back a this point. It didn’t matter that he had traveled and was on a back to back. It didn’t matter that Clint Capela was lost for at least a month with a thumb injury. Harden just keeps on dominating anyone and anything put in front of him. The guy is just a monster right now and I almost don’t care what the salary is at this point. It’s too dangerous to fade anymore. Yes, Anthony Davis out-scored him at a lower price but that’s not going to happen very often. We don’t have that choice tonight so let’s get rolling with our Fantasy Basketball Top Plays.

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Russell Westbrook, Thunder

In most cases, I tread cautiously when we pay up for the studs in blowout spots. The spread of this writing is just nine points, which isn’t great but it’s not egregious either. Westbrook draws one of the best possible matchups in the Hawks tonight and I’m tempted to just take my 60 fantasy points and walk away.

Atlanta has gotten torched by point guards all season in part because I’m not convinced Trae Young has defended anyone since grade school. They rank bottom 10 in points, assists and rebounds given up to the position and second worst in overall DK points. I feel very comfortable saying the only way Westbrook disappoints is a blowout, and the Hawks just need to keep it close until mid-way through the fourth quarter.

Honorable Mention – Darren Collison, Pacers for cash

Fade – Ben Simmons, Sixers 

Maybe this is the low hanging fruit, but provided the Sixers come into this game at full strength, there’s really not a reason to pay up for Simmons. I’m not surprised that his price is high after two straight monster games. He put up a massive triple double against the Hawks(hi, Russell Westbrook) without Joel Embiid in the lineup and then went 20/20 on Sunday. For most players, the price is warranted but not in this situation.

While I don’t sweat the matchup for players like Simmons, it’s worth noting that the Wolves are about mid-pack against the position. I also have a hard time believing that Jimmy Butler doesn’t try to take this one over. It wasn’t the cleanest of breaks in Minnesota and it wouldn’t surprise me if Butler went nuts here. Either way, I’m not about to pay for Simmons to once he gets to five figures when the Sixers are full health.

Honorable Mention – Jamal Murray, Nuggets

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Zach LaVine, Bulls 

This isn’t the first time that LaVine has been featured here with mixed results but this spot really shapes up well for him. One, his price really hasn’t come up since he’s returned from an injury because he hasn’t been the most consistent player. Second, the Lakers play at a high pace and they haven’t shown the ability to defend two guards at all this year.

Even through some of his struggles, LaVine still owns the highest usage and FPPM among the Bulls starting five(Bobby Portis edges him ever so slightly in FPPM in a much smaller sample size) and he’s scored at least 18 real points in five straight games. The lakers have given up the second most real points to two guards and are under a quarter of a point from taking the lead on their own. This is one of the best spots LaVine could get and the Lakers just lost to the Cavs, so I’m not sure we have to worry about blowout to any major extent.

Honorable Mention – Devin Booker, Suns

Fade – Klay Thompson, Warriors

This is another very dangerous game to use Thompson in for a couple of reasons. One, Gary Harris could be active for this game. If he is, Harris is defender that we should respect and recognize. Even if Harris is not active, this isn’t the best game on paper for Thompson. Denver defends the three pointer at one of the better rates in basketball so even though the price is reasonable, I’m not excited for Thompson tonight.

The Nuggets are facing the second fewest three pointers per game and that isn’t by accident. That’s just something that they do well and we have to pay attention to that. The other factor is the Nuggets only allow a 30.3 percent conversion rate on those shots, good for second best. It’s hard to see Klay going nuts here so I’ll pass for the most part.

Honorable Mention – Victor Oladipo, Pacers but I will have some GPP exposure

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Paul George, Thunder 

That’s right, we’re going for the double hammer from Oklahoma City. I mean, they’re playing Atlanta. How can you not love both of George and Westbrook tonight? The price is down relative to where we’ve seen it lately for George since he’s been a little below par for what we got accustomed to. That really doesn’t concern me in this game because there’s really nobody that can stop George from doing whatever he wants to do.

On the season, George is still just 2 percent behind the usage Westbrook has and 0.20 FPPM behind his team-mate. Tonight on DK, the salary difference is up to $2,400 and that’s simply too big to ignore. On FD, the small forward position is lacking like usual. There’s not a ton of options in the mid-range and it might be best suited to just pay for George and pair him with a low-end option that could be your drop.

Honorable Mention – Brandon Ingram, Lakers on FD if you want to spend elsewhere

Fade – Justise Winslow, Heat

This would change significantly if for some reason Josh Richardson doesn’t suit up for the Heat. As of now, he’s expected to play and that would keep me off Winslow this evening. You haven’t known which player you’re going to get lately, be it 45 DK points or 25. When there’s that amount of volatility involved, I tend to shy away as it is but the matchup isn’t that great.

The Bucks are one of the better defensive teams in the league, ranking inside the top 10 in points given up. That’s fairly impressive because they play at a top 10 pace in the league, so their defense is something to take into account. They are also in the bottom 10 in DK points allowed to point guards. Winslow is still listed as a small forward, but he’s not close to that position at this point. He’s the point guard and while we’ve used that little loophole to our advantage, this isn’t the spot for it with the stout defense on the other side. The price isn’t bad and if Richardson is out, Winslow does get a small bump in usage and FPPM.

Honorable Mention – None

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – Domantas Sabonis, Pacers 

When I first looked at this game, I kind of wrote off Sabonis since the price is about as high as we’ve seen it through the season. That makes sense because he’s played well in his extended minutes with the absence of Myles Turner. The best educated guess for Turner is he’ll be back for this game but even if he is, I think Sabonis can still pay off his price tag tonight.

Phoenix has actually gotten better at letting up rebounds in the paint, but Sabonis is seeing 16.2 rebound chances a game, which is quite the number considering he’s averaging just 25 minutes a game. The Suns are still below average in points given up in the paint, surrendering the 10th most on the season. Deandre Ayton isn’t a good defender and whether Sabonis plays 25 or 32 minutes tonight, he still presents upside. I do prefer Turner to be out, but it’s not a necessity.

Honorable Mention – John Collins, Hawks – not a great matchup but Dewayne Dedmon likely being out makes is minutes iron clad

Fade – Josh Jackson, Suns

For seasoned DFS players, this one is fairly easy but I don’t want some of the newer players to fall into the trap of sticking with Jackson now that Devin Booker is back. Not only is he back in the lineup tomorrow, but there is no minutes restriction after missing time with a back injury. Jackson has been playing extremely well and maybe he’s carved out a role off the bench in the short-term. Just understand he’s only been seeing so many minutes because Booker has been out.

Let’s look at the minutes Jackson got in the five games before Booker went out – 17, 26, 13, 15 and a random 30. There are some players that we can feel comfortable with in the mid 20’s, but even that isn’t a guarantee for Jackson. That factor combined with price makes him easy to pass right over tonight.

Honorable Mention – Paul Millsap, Nuggets

DENVER, CO – FEBRUARY 13: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets drives to the basket against Kevin Looney #5 of the Golden State Warriors at the Pepsi Center on February 13, 2017 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that , by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Nikola Jokic, Nuggets

I’m still smarting after writing up Al Horford only to see him be borderline useless for fantasy in the best spot he could have. Seriously, no idea what happened with that but he sunk some nice lineups on my end as well. Anyways, this has me a little on edge because I generally don’t like to pay for Jokic when the price gets so high but this really is in his wheelhouse and I think the Nuggets can keep this game close. If they do, Denver needs Jokic to be at his best and the Warriors have been very weak against centers this year.

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So far, the Warriors have allowed the 13th most real points, eighth most rebounds and sixth most assists to centers. When you have a center that is a walking threat to triple double on any night, you have to be interested. The only issue is how to construct the lineup. Do you eschew Westbrook and play a Joker/Paul George combo? It will be interesting to see how the day shakes out and if there’s enough value to go with Westbrook and Jokic if you wanted to.

Honorable Mention – Alex Len as a cheap option

Fade – Hassan Whiteside, Heat

I almost never try to play centers against the Bucks and tonight isn’t the night to break that rule. Whiteside missed the last game with illness, but appears ready to get back in the swing of things tonight. Not only do you not always get the minutes you think you’ll get with Whiteside, I don’t see where he has much upside in this matchup.

The Bucks do give up a lot of real points to centers but that’s about it. They give up the fewest rebounds by a significant amount and Whiteside is going to have his hands full chasing Brook Lopez around the court on the offensive end. I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Bam Adebayo gets some solid run here as well and Whiteside ends up more towards the 24 minute mark. Even if he scores 20 real points in limited action, I have a tough time seeing where else a lot of fantasy points come from tonight for Whiteside.

Honorable Mention – Deandre Ayton, Suns

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