NBA Power Rankings: The Warriors are back, baby
By Ian Levy
The Golden State Warriors are back, pouring in points and surging towards the top of our NBA Power Rankings.
The only question that matters in Chicago right now is whether they’ll buy out Robin Lopez so he can sign with the Warriors and give us our Lopez vs. Lopez NBA Finals.
The losses keep piling up but Kevin Knox is coming into his own — he has scored in double-figures in 17 of his last 20 games, averaging 16.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game, shooting 37.3 percent on 3-pointers since the beginning of December.
They may have the worst record and point differential in the league, but for one night, at least, they were better than the legendary Los Angeles Lakers. Also, Collin Sexton is shooting 43.8 percent on 3s over his last 10 games. I know the sample size is still small across the season but he might actually be a shooter.
You: When Trae Young starts making his 3-pointers the Hawks might look like a real basketball team.
Me: The Hawks are 7-8 over their last 15 games, Young has hit 41.9 percent of his 3s.
The Suns turning Trevor Ariza into Kelly Oubre Jr. is just looking better and better. This week, he averaged 22.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, shooting better than 50 percent from the field and 40 percent from the 3-point line. Meanwhile, Trevor Ariza got to watch this mayhem in person.
Imagining the swarming defensive potential of a Jonathan Isaac – Aaron Gordon – Mo Bamba frontcourt was really fun this summer. That group has played 23 minutes together, scoring 81.8 points per 100 possessions and surrendering 112.8. Trade deadline, here we come!
Since John Wall announced he was undergoing season-ending heel surgery, the Wizards are 4-3 and outscoring opponents by an average of 4.8 points per 100 possessions. During that stretch, Otto Porter is averaging 16.0 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.7 steals per game, shooting 45.7 percent on 3-pointers. It’s like some sort of obstacle has been removed from the team’s path…
The Pistons have stopped winning close games, which basically means they’ve stopped winning games. On Dec. 1, they beat the Warriors and moved to 13-7 on the season. At that point, they were 6-5 in games in which the margin was five points or less at any points in the final five minutes. Since then, the Pistons are 5-17 and 4-9 in close games.
With Kyle Anderson and Dillon Brooks down, the Grizzlies wing depth is continuing to get thinner and thinner. As the slide further away from secure playoff position maybe we’re looking at the Grizzlies becoming active at the trade deadline?
It was a rough week for the Hornets. The finished with a very solid 15-point win over the San Antonio Spurs, but dropped their first three games — against the Clippers, Trail Blazers and Kings — by a combined 57 points. Luckily, the ineptitude of the bottom of the East means Charlotte is still in playoff position.
D’Angelo Russell has been on fire lately, consistently playing like the star the Lakers thought they were getting with the No. 2 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. He’s still just 22-years-old and averaging career-highs in points, assists, field goal, 3-point and free throw percentages. Over his last 10 games, Russell is averaging 23.1 points and 6.6 assists, shooting 48.5 percent from the field and 36.6 percent on 3-pointers.
The Kings are continuing to do just enough to stay over .500. Although they have a better record than the Mavericks, Timberwolves and Pelicans, their per 100 possession point differential is negative for the season and significantly lower than all three of those teams.
Winning close games has helped the Mavericks stay afloat, barely, and the late-game heroics of Luka Doncic have been key. In clutch situations this season, Doncic is averaging 36.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per 36 minutes, shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 38.1 percent on 3-pointers.
Tom Thibodeau was fired last Sunday and the Timberwolves responded with a strong week, dropping a close game to the Mavericks but picking up key wins over the Thunder and Pelicans. Under new head coach Ryan Saunders, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 25.7 points, 15.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 2.7 blocks per game, shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 37.5 percent on 3-pointers.
Justise Winslow has continued to play like the star he was supposed to be and his rebirth at point guard is what has saved the Heat’s season. What comes next, who knows? But for now, the Heat are winning.
The shadow of Anthony Davis’ happiness is cast over everything the Pelicans do right now and making the playoffs is of the utmost importance. Right now, 538 gives New Orleans a 51 percent chance of making the playoffs, tied with the Spurs for the seventh-best odds in the West. If they can make their way into the postseason, then they can focus on what comes next.
The Lakers are now 3-7 since LeBron’s Christmas Day injury, getting outscored by an average of 3.6 points per 100 possessions. In the grand scheme of things, these games are mostly meaningless — the Lakers won’t miss the playoffs and how they perform without LeBron doesn’t really offer much information about their future. What it does is change perception, build pressure and, theoretically, make the Lakers more likely to be active at the trade deadline.
Jusuf Nurkic has been a monster for Portland recently. Over his last 10 games, Nurkic is averaging 17.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.5 steals per game, shooting 58.8 percent from the field. For the season, the Blazers have been better by 14.0 points per 100 possessions with Nurkic on the floor, the best such mark on the team.
The Clippers have been really sliding lately with the biggest issue being their defense bottoming out. In four games this week they allowed an average of 113.9 points per 100 possessions against the Hornets, Nuggets, Pistons and Pelicans.
Over his last 11 games, James Harden has scored 40 or more nine times. The other two games, he’s finished with 38. In the Rockets last game, his first since it was announced Clint Capela would miss four to six weeks with an injured thumb, Harden dropped 57. He may have to average 70 a game from here on out to keep the Rockets from losing ground.
Things continue to feel off with the 76ers. They have sixth-best win percentage in the league but just the 12th-best net rating. They’ve overperformed their expected record (based on that point differential) by three wins. And the biggest issue — the on-court chemistry between Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler — remains unresolved. They’re still scoring just 105.8 points per 100 possessions when that trio is on the court together.
The Spurs’ gift for conjuring rotation players out of second-round picks and fringe contributors doesn’t appear to have waned a bit. Derrick White, the No. 29 pick in last year’s draft, is averaging 16.0 points, 4.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists over his last 10 games, shooting 63.2 percent from the field and 50 percent on 3s. Over the same span, Bryan Forbes, who went undrafted, has averaged 12.9 points per game, making 26-of-62 (41.9 percent) from behind the arc. The Spurs are fighting the good fight this season, but the future stays bright.
Things are breaking right with the Utah Jazz — a 4-0 week where they outscored opponents by an average of 10.1 points per 100 possessions. Donovan Mitchell was sensational, scoring 32.0 points and adding 6.0 assists per game, shooting 51.1 percent from the field and 46.9 percent on 3-pointers. When he’s creating offense that efficiently, the Jazz are as good as anyone.
Depth continues to be one of the primary question marks for the Thunder in their hunt for a deep playoff run but this week offered some encouraging developments, despite dropping two games. Terrance Ferguson knocked down 13-of-17 from behind the arc and Patrick Patterson chipped in with a 5-of-8 week from behind the arc. Oklahoma desperately needs spacing around their star creators and these two shooters are the best chances to get it.
Indiana has continued to play phenomenal basketball, going 15-4 since Dec. 4. The continued development of Domantas Sabonis has been key, both helping carry them when Victor Oladipo was out and helping things run smoothly since his return. In the past three games, Sabonis averaged 19.0 points, 10.3 rebounds and 4.0 assists, shooting 61.1 percent from the field. Every week, the Pacers are looking more and more like a force to be reckoned with in the East.
The Raptors have the best record in the league and a slew of signature wins. But despite a 3-0 week, their statistical resume continues to slide. Toronto’s point differential has slid to plus-4.9 per 100 possessions which is below the threshold of what we’d normally expect from a strong contender. For reference, their strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin is just a little more than half what they posted last season.
The Nuggets have thrived because of their developing wing depth but it certainly doesn’t hurt to have Will Barton back in the lineup. He’s only played 30 minutes across two games since returning from a 38-game absence and has looked rusty. But his playmaking and shooting will be hugely useful as they look to make a deep playoff push.
Just when it looks like the Celtics have finally figured themselves out, they take a step back — dropping their last three games. Their offense has looked good and Jayson Tatum has been scorching hot, but they’ve been hemorrhaging points at the other end of the floor and have slid down to fifth in the Eastern Conference standings.
The Warriors are back, baby. With a 3-0 week, they’ve now won six of seven with three of those wins coming by 20+ points. Kevin Durant is giving up isolation opportunities to let Stephen Curry cook and they’ve scored a mind-numbing 125.9 points per 100 possessions over the past seven games. The offense appears to have their edge back and they’re reminding everyone why they entered this season as the overall favorites.
For at least one more week, the Bucks hold down their spot as the best team in the NBA. Their point differential (plus-9.1 points per 100 possessions) is more than three points per 100 possessions ahead of anyone else in the league. Giannis Antetokounmpo may still end up being MVP and they’re in the top three in efficiency at both ends of the floor (the only team in the top-5 at both ends). If it weren’t for the Warriors and their legacy, they’d be the runaway favorites.