Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NCAA basketball picks. This recurring series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball picks (money lines mostly) that pay a nice return but come with heavy risk. I mean, who wants to bet on the favorite anyways?
With both Syracuse at +1400 (+1400!) and Monmouth at +195 hitting last night, the Underdog Picks series is off to a hot start. Tonight’s NCAA action offers considerably more games to choose from and some solid value lines for our underdogs.
NCAA Basketball Picks – Tuesday, January 15
Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs
Heading into an SEC showdown, perennial powerhouse Kentucky takes to the road to face down a surprisingly well-rounded Bulldogs squad. Despite a strong overall record at 12-3 on the year, Kentucky has struggled on the road, going just 2-2 so far. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs, while posting a less impressive record of 9-6, have been stellar at home posting a 7-2 record in Athens, Georgia.
As is the typical case for a Kentucky team, they are an extremely athletic bunch loaded with dynamic talent. In year’s past, Kentucky’s focus on pure athleticism has come at the detriment of shooting ability, but this Calipari squad seems to have found a nice balance between the two.
However, Georgia is HOT right now. An all-around solid basketball team, Georgia has been extremely dangerous on their home court, winning by an average of nearly 18 points when they play in Athens. Georgia doesn’t necessarily have one standout scorer and as a result, rely on strong team defense to create scoring opportunities on the other end. If Georgia wants to pull this upset off, they’re going to need a big time defensive effort to help cull the Kentucky attack.
Despite Kentucky being one of the most talented teams in the nation, Athens will be rocking for this SEC showdown and the Bulldogs will be ready to play. Kentucky has a bullseye on their back in the SEC and I would be shocked if Georgia hasn’t had this circled on their calendar for some time. Look for a big time Georgia defensive effort to keep them hanging around all game before pulling away late behind an energized home crowd.
Pick: Georgia Bulldogs +280
Central Michigan Chippewas @ Northern Illinois Huskies
Central Michigan takes to the road to face fellow MAC member Northern Illinois. Sitting with a superior record of 13-3 on the year while facing a similar caliber of competition, the Chippewas come into the matchup as the underdogs. The Huskies sit at 10-6 on the year and have been stellar at home posting a record of 7-1. That said, the Chippewas are no slouches of their own on the road as they boast a 3-1 record themselves.
Led by senior guard Larry Austin Jr (18.7/6.1/5.4), the Chippewas have one of the best all around players in the MAC. With the exception of those 3 losses, the Chippewas have thrashed every team thrown their way and will be looking to avenge an uncharacteristic loss to Bowling Green in their last outing.
Northern Illinois is hot themselves as after dropping a game to Michigan State, they’ve rattled off three straight resounding wins in conference play. Eugene German (21.1/4.6/2.9) is the offensive (and defensive) catalyst for the Huskies on the year. Not only does he lead the Huskies in points and assists, but he also leads the team in steals. Seeing as the Huskies don’t have many defensive weapons, German’s pressure on the perimeter has helped keep them afloat on that side of the ball.
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Despite the Huskies playing solid basketball behind the strong play of German, the fact remains that if he goes cold, they don’t have many options to pick up his slack on either end of the court. The Chippewas do a great job at forcing tough shots on their opponents and should make life hard on German in this outing. Look for the Chippewas to pick up a hard-fought win and upset the Huskies at home.
Pick: Central Michigan Chippewas +200
Marquette Golden Eagles @ Georgetown Hoyas
We’ll end the article with a classic Big East showdown. The Golden Eagles roll into the matchup with a robust 14-3 record while the Hoyas sit at a strong 12-5. Georgetown has been one of the most dominant teams on their home court on the year, posting a 9-2 record. Meanwhile, Marquette has struggled when hitting the road, with all 3 of their losses on the year coming away from the Harris Bradley Center.
Marquette is smoking hot right now, coming in as winners of 9 of their last 10 games. However, the vast majority of those games have been played in the friendly confines of their home court and as a result, they have yet to show that they can consistently win games on the road. As mentioned earlier, all 3 of the Golden Eagle’s losses on the year have come away from home and they own a 1-3 record on the road this year.
While the Hoyas are not on the same type of run as Marquette, but they are a significantly stronger team in their home building. As a team that loves to push the pace and score at an incredibly high clip, Marquette shouldn’t offer them a whole ton of resistance on the defensive side of things as they regularly allow good offensive teams to score well into the 80’s and above.
When facing elite offenses, Marquette has the tendency to throw defense to the wind and stand and trade blows. While Marquette does offer a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball in their own right, the Hoyas get the benefit of playing in front of their home crowd (where they have been stellar) and should be able to more than keep pace with the Marquette scoring attack. Expect a close game throughout, but look for the Hoyas to start pulling away as bucket after bucket piles up late in the 2nd half.
Pick: Georgetown Hoyas +120
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