The Desert Classic: PGA DFS DraftKings Full Course Breakdown and Plays
By Chris Brent
Welcome back readers of FantasyCPR! The Desert Classic has a full 156-players in the field. This PGA DFS tournament offers a different twist than other events on the PGA tour. This week we have three course that all the golfers in the field will get the opportunity to play, after all three courses are played in three days a cut will take place.
The three courses are Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course, La Quinta CC and TPC Stadium Course. Important cut rule for this week, the cut is top-70 and ties after three rounds, however if the MDF is engaged this week then the cut moves to top-60 and ties. Last years cut line was eight under after 54-holes. Let’s dive in to this PGA DFS contests.
PGA DFS – Analyzing the Three Courses:
La Quinta Country Club is the shortest course and is typically the easiest course on the rotation. Last year, Jon Rahm shot 10-under par and Adam Hadwin even found a 59 on this course last year. A lot of low rounds in coming for this course. La Quinta is a Par 72 7060 yards course.
Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West is the second course in the rotation, there are wide fairways and large greens, which leads to a lot of greens-in-regulation and a lot of low scores. Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course is a Par 72 7159 yard course.
Stadium Course is the toughest of the three and is where the final round is played. The stadium course produces the highest scores but low scores are still attainable, just more difficult. The Stadium Course is a Par 72 7113 yard golf course.
Huge edge in showdown slates this week with fading people playing the Stadium course and hope people do not understand the course rotation. La Quinta Country Club is the easiest, followed by Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course and then the Stadium Course.
Need to mention this tournament will be a birdie fest so look at Par-5 scoring, Birdie or better percentage, approach stats and putting stats as our core stats this week.
PGA DFS Top Plays: ($10,000+)
Jon Rahm ($11,600)
Rahm is the top-play this week, the only problem with Rahm this week is the fact that he is going to be popular. Rahm scores well in all of the top stats I am looking at this week and is the defending champion of this tournament. Rahm posted a 10-under performance at the La Quintana course last year and won in a four-hole playoff last year. Rahm checks all the box, definitely a stars and scrub week, pay up for Rahm in your cash games this week. Rahm is the odds on favorite of this event.
Justin Rose ($11,000)
Rose is the world’s number one golfer but he usually skips this event. Rose has not played this event since 2010, and he finished that event as a missed cut. Rose despite not having really played here is a completely different golfer than he was nine years ago. Rose did switch irons, people typically tend to be off of golfer when using newer clubs, however he’s the number one golfer in the world right now and nobody is really talking about him. You don’t have to go 100-percent on Rose to get overweight on the field either. Even if you get 20% you will be over the field this week.
PGA DFS Fade:
Adam Hadwin ($10,000)
Course history is really strong for Adam Hadwin this week and I expect ownership. $10,000 is a lot to pay for Adam Hadwin but he’s actually one of the better golfers in the field this week. Hadwin has win equity this week as well, I am strictly fading because I believe there will be an ownership bump to him this week and I do not like that he has to play the toughest course on day 1 in tougher weather. Hadwin is at a massive disadvantage this week, but that doesn’t mean he can’t post a top-10 finish.
The Rest of the Field:
The field is primed for a true stars and scrub build this week as all golfers are guaranteed to play three rounds. Even if your golfer misses the cut, it will not ruin your chance of cashing, but it likely ruins your chance to win the tournament.
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Ryan Palmer ($8,200)
Palmer is going to make a bunch of lineup for me this week as he has a really strong tournament history, paired with strong showing in the key stats that I’m looking at for this event. In the last 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in par 4 scoring, 16th in birdie-or-better percentage and 11th in strokes gained approached. Also, in this tournament Palmer has posted two top-10’s and two top-20’s in the last 5 years. Palmers a strong play this week.
Joaquin Niemann ($7,600)
Niemann is my guy, I fell in love with Niemann last year, nearly played him every week he was in the field. Niemann always gets ownership, because they’re guys like me that just play him because he pops on the model every single week. If you look at numbers over the last 50 rounds, Niemann ranks 4th in par 4 scoring, 5th in Birdie-or-better percentage and 1st in approach. This is a weak field, I don’t understand Niemann’s price here, I’m going to just play him.
Si-Woo Kim ($7,400)
Kim has the upside to win this event, and is only $7,400. DraftKings really missed priced Kim this week, now we can’t say that we’d be surprised with a missed cut either. Kim has decent course history here with a top-10 and two top-25’s in his three events here. The price is two low for what he has the capabilities of doing this week. Also, I expect the ownership to be close to nothing as people simply don’t like playing the volatility that Kim’s game offers.
Bill Haas ($7,400)
For you course history nuts, Haas is in play but that’s simply all it is. Haas has played this event 10-times in 10 years and he has posted two wins a runner up, two other top-10 finishes, one top-20, two outside the top-20 and two missed cuts. Haas has great course history here, but the stats aren’t backing this play.
PGA DFS Deep Flyer:
Sebastian Munoz ($6,500)
If i’m down this far, it’s Munoz for me. Munoz has played this season, posted a top-10 finish last week at the Sony open. He’s played this event one time, and he missed the cut, however, I’m not into a ton of scrubs this week but this is where I would look in this range. Munoz ranks 15th in birdie-or-better percentage over the last 24 rounds. Birdie-or-better percentage is the only key stat that stands out but that stat typically translates well to DraftKings scoring.
Best of luck at the Desert Classic this Weekend!