DraftKings NBA Picks January 16: Pay for Harden again

CHARLOTTE, NC – NOVEMBER 01: Russell Westbrook #0 talks to teammate Dennis Schroder #17 of the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Spectrum Center on November 1, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks January 16: Pay for Harden again

We are up to eight games for our DraftKings NBA tournaments tonight. They aren’t as star studded as last night and some of the stars have bad matchups, but we have value and both A.D. and Harden. It’s going to be an interesting night regardless!

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Stephen Curry ($10,100): I can find nothing wrong with paying for Curry right now except for the fact that the Warriors are loaded and both Davis and Harden are on this slate. If you are feeling contrarian, then by all means, go with Curry. This is a good matchup against a Pelicans team that Curry dropped 58 DraftKings points on in the first meeting. I have no doubts that he will be worth this price. I’m just worried about what the other two could do.

Damian Lillard ($9,000): Lillard has three straight games of more than 40 DraftKings points. That’s a given against Cleveland. The Cavs can’t guard anyone. The issue here is the possibility of a blowout tonight in Portland. Lillard still hit value at this price against Charlotte in a blowout scenario, so it’s not like it can’t be done. Lillard’s upside is capped though if this gets out of hand.

Honorable Mention:

Eric Bledsoe ($6,300): Bledsoe torched Memphis for 37 DraftKings points in just 29 minutes in the first meeting. Bledsoe had a bit of a rough stretch at the end of December that stretched into early January, but he is back to his old tricks lately. He has 134.25 DraftKings points over the last three games. Giannis missed one of those, but that only accounts for the 50 he dropped in that stretch. Bledsoe has good chance to hit mid 30’s again tonight.

Derrick White ($5,800): White continues putting up big numbers except for the hiccup against Memphis last week. This is a good matchup against Dallas regardless of the status of Dennis Smith. The Spurs are giving White more run. I was apprehensive about paying this much for him originally, but it looks like White deserves it.

Dark Horses:

D.J. Augustin ($4,500): Augustin has really taken it to the Pistons in two meetings this year. He has 77.75 DraftKings points in 68 minutes against Detroit. The Pistons have real issues with guards, so I have no issue with using Augustin as a value play here even though he has struggled lately.

Collin Sexton ($4,400): Sexton may be finally coming around. He has 77.75 DraftKings points over the last three games, which puts him pretty close to 6x value. So long as Sexton’s price is this low and the minutes are that high, he’s worth a dart throw. I’m not that excited about the matchup, but even if it gets out of hand Sexton will still play quite a few minutes.

My pick: Augustin(PG); White(PG)

DETROIT, MICHIGAN – JANUARY 05: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Utah Jazz reacts late in the game while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena on January 05, 2019 in Detroit, Michigan. Utah won the game 110-105. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($13,000): Just pay it. Harden has 17 straight games of at least 30 real points. He’s the first player to do that since Wilt Chamberlain in 1964. The Rockets were operating with a skeleton crew on Monday and still blew out Memphis. Harden hit 30 points in the first 15 minutes of that game! And his ownership was still only at 43%. You’re donating if you aren’t playing Harden right now. However, the winner of the throwdown on Monday did it with A.D. and not Harden. I think that is an isolate incident though. The Rockets are still beat up, and Harden is the one man gang.

Donovan Mitchell ($9,100): Mitchell finally came back to earth against Detroit on Monday, but he still got 40.75 DraftKings points in that one. He’s still got a really nice floor. This is an even better matchup for Mitchell here against the porous Clippers guards. Again, I wouldn’t fade Harden for him, and it’s practically impossible to stuff Mitchell in with Davis and Harden, so Mitchell is mostly a contrarian play as well.

DeMar DeRozan ($8,100): DeRozan dropped 60 DraftKings points in the first game against Dallas, but his output has been lacking lately. DeRozan’s only game over value in the last four games was the double overtime game against the Thunder, and he was mostly an afterthought in that one as Aldridge stole the show. DeRozan is a pretty tough sell tonight.

Honorable Mention:

D’Angelo Russell ($7,300): I like this a little less if Napier plays, but at any rate, it’s going to be a shooting contest in Houston. Russell lit up a depleted Boston lineup on Monday. Now he gets a depleted Houston lineup. If Eric Gordon returns, I will probably lay off Russell, but someone of this upside at this price needs to be noticed.

C.J. McCollum ($6,600): McCollum has a really good matchup here, but he did the Kings on Monday as well. That didn’t turn out so well. McCollum only had 15.5 DraftKings points on an abysmal 2-14 from the floor. Cleveland’s guard defense is lacking, but if Lillard lights the place up, C.J. wont have much of a chance.

Lou Williams ($6,100): The volume here makes Williams worth using, even against Utah. Their guard corps are still really thin with Rubio, Neto, and Exum still out. Williams should get plenty of shots. If he can erase the shooting woes from Monday, LouWill is going to destroy value here. He hit 5x against New Orleans despite only going 6-19 from the floor.

Dark Horses:

Alec Burks ($5,200): Burks has 78 DraftKings points over the last two games. He has actually overshadowed Clarkson of late. Of course, the 20 rebounds over the last two games help that. That gives Burks more value than your average guard. If he’s going to play 30 minutes a game, this is way too cheap for Burks.

Kyle Korver ($4,200): The Jazz are pretty much out of other options. Korver has to play more than they originally expected him to. Korver has responded with some pretty good shooting to fill all of the minutes they are giving him. He’s mostly like Redick. Just a shooter. However, with the amount of shots that Korver is getting, he’s going to hit value without an issue.

My pick: Harden(SG), Burks(G); Harden(SG), Burks(G)

DALLAS, TEXAS – DECEMBER 16: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center on December 16, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kawhi Leonard ($9,600): Kawhi has been unstoppable lately, except by limited minutes and his old team. He has played Boston twice already this year, and Leonard saved his best for Toronto’s main competition. Leonard has 113.25 DraftKings points in the two games against Boston so far. Do you think the Celtics can stop him this time around? Me either.

Luka Doncic ($8,400): Doncic put up a 50 spot on the Spurs the first time he faced them. The floor on Doncic is really high. He hasn’t gone under 30 DraftKings points since he started running the show in Big D. He has been well over 40 in eight of the last 11 games, including his first triple double in that span. Again, there are a ton of places to spend money tonight, so there is a chance that Doncic goes relatively unnoticed.

Honorable Mention:

Aaron Gordon ($7,000): I’m not crazy about using Harris or Gallinari in an extreme slowdown game against the Jazz. I would much rather go with Gordon, who has 87.5 DraftKings points in two meetings against Detroit so far. The best part is that you can fit Gordon in just about any lineup with his price this low.

Khris Middleton ($6,900): I don’t usually use Middleton with Giannis in the lineup, but since Giannis was locked down by Memphis the first time around, Middleton’s output was almost as Giannis in the first game against Memphis. And you get all that for $5,100 less. That’s one whole player!

Harrison Barnes ($5,700): Barnes put up 29 DraftKings points on the Spurs the first time around, so he is in play here. I see Barnes as mostly a cash game play. His upside is almost gone with Luka dominating all of north Texas right about now. Barnes still has a really good floor. Just don’t expect a 40 anymore.

Dark Horses:

Rodney Hood ($4,200): The Cavs are gradually increasing the workload for Hood, but it doesn’t look like he is going to take a starting job anytime soon. That does limit his value some, but Hood’s upside is still pretty high with his price this low. We know that he can disappear for stretches at a time, so there is risk involved. However, if we are trying to stuff three stars into our lineup, we have to take risks somewhere.

Andre Iguodala ($3,900): Iguodala is a sure 20+ at this point. In a paced up game like this, there is a chance that Iguodala flirts with 30 here. He only played 19 minutes in the first meeting, but still produced 20 DraftKings points. That’s pretty much what we can expect again tonight. I’ll take that for a value punt.

Omri Casspi ($3,500): Casspi is the one that soaked up most of the minutes with Kyle Anderson going down. Justin Holiday ruined a lot of lineups since he started the second half in place of Anderson when the injury occurred over the weekend. Apparently, Memphis going to run with Casspi. He put up 21.75 DraftKings points against the Rockets. There is no reason he can’t do that against Milwaukee with the minutes he’s going to get.

My pick: Doncic(SF), Casspi(F); Gordon(SF), Casspi(UTIL)

DENVER, COLORADO – JANUARY 15: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors plays the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center on January 15, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Kevin Durant ($9,800): Durant put up 46.25 DraftKings points the first time around against the Pelicans. He’s always right there around 50, and his price is always right around $10,000. That makes it hard for Durant to really crush value. Still, Giannis ended up with a triple double last night and didn’t even hit value at $11,000. I doubt he does against Memphis since he wont be a one man gang like Harden was. If you are spending here, it should be with Durant.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,300): Aldridge has churned out two 50+ DraftKings points games in his last three tries. It’s difficult to move off of Davis with the way he has played, but the Warriors held him in the mid 40’s for DraftKings points the first time around and they dominated Jokic last night. Blake has been awful in both games against Orlando, so if you are moving off of KD but still are spending, Aldridge is the way to ride the hot hand.

Honorable Mention:

Jayson Tatum ($6,600): Tatum was huge on Monday, but that had something to do with Kyrie missing the game. Irving is in today, so don’t expect Tatum to be as active of a scorer. However, he does match up well with this Toronto front. Tatum has taken them for 69.5 DraftKings points in the first two games. That makes Tatum a solid 5x value here.

Draymond Green ($6,400): Green racked up a whopping 49 DraftKings points against the Pelicans the first time around. This is clearly a matchup that suits Draymond’s style, so he could put up a monster with his price this low. I think I like Green over any other Warrior tonight besides maybe Curry. This should be a smash spot for him.

Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,300): The matchup doesn’t even really matter anymore. Aminu is a value staple right now, putting up more than 20 DraftKings points in each of the last 15 games. Aminu has put up a couple of bigger games in that span as well, so he has enough upside for GPP usage due to his rebounding prowess.

Dark Horses:

Rodions Kurucs ($4,100): Kurucs has been all over the place as far as production goes, but as long as he is still starting, he is worth a look for this price. The problem lies with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. He is now listed as questionable, and if he does return, Kurucs is going to lose some value. Maybe not at first since RHJ should be on a minutes limit, but even with RHJ playing only 20 minutes or so, that could hurt Kurucs and his bid to hit value.

Gary Clark ($3,400): This is a situation to watch with Capela out. It’s only one game, and a lot of things can change. However, Clark playing 26 minutes against Memphis really came out of left field. Many jumped on Nene and Chriss. They had a combined 7.75 DraftKings points. Keep an eye on the lineups for this one, but considering that Clark played pretty well, I would assume he will play the bulk of the minutes, and can’t help but hitting 5x value.

My pick: Clark(PF); Green(PF), Clark(F)

INDIANAPOLIS, IN – NOVEMBER 19: Rudy Gobert #27 of the Utah Jazz shoots the ball against the Indiana Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on November 19, 2018 in Indianapolis, Indiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

Best Bets:

Nikola Vucevic ($8,900): Vucevic has 79 DraftKings points over the first two games with Detroit. The fact remains that this is a good matchup. Drummond is an extraordinary rebounder, but he has had issues defending the rim. Vucevic could make some noise here since he is mostly a scorer. I could see playing Drummond here since he outplayed Vuce both times they met before, and he’s $200 cheaper.

Rudy Gobert ($8,500): It took Gobert some time to get going this year, but now that he is, look out! Gobert has 156.75 DraftKings points over the last three games. This is one of the better matchups he can ask for since the Clippers don’t have much of a force up front. Harrell isn’t a true center, and for some reason the Clippers don’t like Boban. Gobert is going to tear Gortat apart.

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Honorable Mention:

Montrezl Harrell ($7,200): Harrell has had at least 44 DraftKings points in three of the last four games. There were some big fronts in that span like the Pelicans and Pistons. I’m not really worried about Utah here. Harrell is playing more than 30 minutes a game right now. He is still a per-minute freak, so this could be a pretty nice value for the price.

Al Horford ($5,900): Horford was one of the biggest busts on a night full of them on Monday. How in the world does a center flop against the Nets? That’s going to chase almost everyone off of Horford, but Horford has 74.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Raptors this year. That’s enough reason to chase this.

Dark Horses:

Jarrett Allen ($5,600): Allen ravaged the undersized Horford on Monday to the tune of 47 DraftKings points. Houston is essentially running without a center here, so Allen is in a big smash spot for his price. Allen has had issues putting a string of good games together, but this could be a spot where it happens.

Kevon Looney ($4,100): Looney did more than hold his own last night against a strong Denver front, so I really don’t have an issue using him here against the Pelicans. Looney has topped 30 DraftKings points twice in the last three games. I see no reason to jump off the value train just yet.

Nene Hilario/Marquese Chriss ($3,400): THEY ARE PLAYING THE NETS! Is it enough? I have my doubts, but the punt upside is there if we can figure out who is going to take the minutes.

My pick: Gobert(C), Hilario(UTIL); Allen(C)

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