FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 1/16 – Stars and Scrubs Forever
By Dan Palyo
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Wednesday, 1/16
Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA Breakdown! I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love playing and writing about FanDuel NBA DFS and I enjoy doing these daily breakdowns for our loyal CPR readers. We’ve assembled quite a team of fantasy writers here at FantasyCPR and you’re not likely to find better free DFS content out there.
My goal when I revamped the Breakdown was to create an all-inclusive article that gives you a place to start your research for FanDuel NBA cash games and GPPs. When making my cash and GPP picks I always take into account salary, Vegas trends, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes a great GPP or cash target.
Yesterday’s cash game core was really solid with Westbrook going for 67, Schroder 34, and Winslow 35. Some of my GPP picks didn’t fare as well as Jokic and the Nuggets were handled by the Warriors. But Trae Young certainly came through for us with a 40-spot. Overall, there were some mixed results on my picks for the night.
Tonight we have an eight-game slate, which is relatively small for a Wednesday night, but I’m not complaining! Fewer games on Wednesday means more games on Tuesday and Thursday and we have another 6-gamer tomorrow, which I’ll take any day over a 2 or 3-game slate.
"The FanDuel NBA Breakdown is a first look article that is intended to be a starting point for your cash game or GPP research for FanDuel NBA DFS."
There will be information that comes out during the day that will likely push us onto certain plays or off others. Sometimes there are players mentioned in this first look article who get ruled out during the day, or other players emerge as good plays when surprise injury news emerges.
My best advice is to never settle on a lineup too early in the day and be willing to be flexible enough to incorporate the new information that becomes available throughout the day. At the same time, don’t abandon your core plays unless the slate absolutely demands it!
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Eight Game Slate
Injury Report
OUT: Chris Paul, Ricky Rubio, Raul Neto, Dante Exum, Allen Crabbe, Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Anderson, Aaron Baynes, OG Anunoby, Larry Nance Jr., Clint Capela, Demarcus Cousins (but getting closer to return!)
Doubtful: Mohammed Bamba
Questionable: Dennis Smith Jr., Shabazz Napier, Fred VanVleet, Eric Gordon, Marcus Smart, Marco Belinelli, Maurice Harkless, Marc Gasol
Probable: Rudy Gay, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
A quick look at the injury report shows that Utah is still very short-handed as well as Houston. Eric Gordon‘s status is worth monitoring and if he plays then he’d be thrust right into a good situation with the Rockets needing someone else to score the basketball besides Harden. The other big name on that list is Marc Gasol, while the rest are role players on their teams.
Vegas Info
The highest total is a ridiculous 240 in the Warriors-Pelicans game tonight. This total is 18 points higher than any of game on the slate!
The lowest total on the slate comes from the Orlando-Detroit game, which is sitting at 206.
The rest of the games fall somewhere in the 215-222 range and there should be plenty of scoring tonight.
Our tightest projected spread is in the Dallas-San Antonio game with Dallas being a one-point favorite at home against the visiting Spurs.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Cash Game Core
Welcome to the cash game core plays section of the Breakdown! I’ve been giving you a GPP core in the past, so instead, I wanted to provide you with a solid trio of players to start building your cash game lineups with tonight.
James Harden (14000)
FanDuel is making it tough on you, basically daring you to fade Harden tonight. I wouldn’t do it in cash games, though. Harden attempted 33 shots on Monday and single-handedly carried his team to a win. This sounds like the same thing I’ve been saying for two weeks, but just don’t fade Harden while he’s got a 50% usage and playing at this level. There will come a time to fade, but today is not that day.
Steph Curry (10000)
Rather than try to jam in Anthony Davis and spend nearly half your cap on two players, I’d rather get some exposure to the Warriors and my favorite guy is Curry tonight. He’s 400 cheaper than Kevin Durant and in good form. He was well on his way to another 50+ FD point night last night before the Nuggets gave up and he ended with 41 FD points in only 29 minutes. Steph is about as safe as it gets at the PG position and should easily be able to get us 50 tonight in what should be a stat-filled game with the Pelicans.
Pascal Siakam (6500)
I was torn here for my third choice and I almost went with Derrick White (6100) in a great matchup against Dallas. But I like to give you some positional flexibility and Siakam is my favorite mid-tier option at power forward. He’s super consistent and playing really well right now for the Raptors. He does a little of everything and is emerging as a potential star in the league. His well-rounded game gives us a nice floor for our cash games tonight.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Top GPP Plays
Anthony Davis (13700)
While I didn’t include Davis in the cash core, I do think it would be wise to get some exposure to him tonight. He’s coming off a massive 82-burger on Monday and has topped 80 FD points in two of his last three games. He tends to play well against GSW and this game could absolutely go crazy tonight with both teams playing fast. It’s hard to fit him with Harden, but game-stacking him with Steph and/or Durant makes a ton of sense for GPPs.
Kawhi Leonard (9800)
Did anyone forget how good Leonard is? I’m wondering if Kawhi gets totally overlooked tonight with the buzz that will be surrounding the GSW-New Orleans game. Meanwhile, Leonard quietly has gone for 60+ FD points in three of his last four outings and happens to have great numbers against Boston this season. In two games against the Celtics, Kawhi has averaged 31-12.5-3.5 this season and I see no reason why he couldn’t do it again.
Klay Thompson (7400)
Klay is absolutely on fire right now. He shot 13-19 from the field last night and is making basketball look easy. He’s a nice pivot off some of his own teammates in this game as Curry and Durant will likely be higher owned. Last night the Warriors made a concerted effort to get Klay going early and I’ve noticed they’ve been doing that more often lately. If Jrue Holiday ends up guarding Curry, that would leave Elfrid Payton to chase Thompson around screens and that would be a matchup that I would absolutely want to target.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Value Plays
For our purposes here at the Breakdown, we classify players priced at 5000 or less as “value plays.” Identifying value has been crucial this year on FanDuel as the new “drop score” rule has forced us into playing a lot of “stars and scrubs” rosters in both cash and GPP formats. Finding good value is becoming increasingly more important as we see the prices on studs like Harden, Davis, and others continue to rise.
Kevon Looney (4800)
Looney has had one bad game (in which he got into some unfortunate foul trouble) in his last six games, otherwise, he’s been an easy 5x most nights. His days on this list might be numbered with Boogie Cousins returning soon, but for tonight he’s my top value center and going into a bunch of my lineups.
JaMychal Green (4700)
Jay-Mike didn’t have quite the game we were looking for on Monday but still scored 19 FD points in 20 minutes. He’s definitely got upside again here tonight against Milwaukee and I would think the Grizz would need him to play more minutes, especially if Gasol were to miss.
Shelvin Mack (4400)
Mack played 23 minutes on Monday and didn’t disappoint, scoring 27 FanDuel points against the Rockets. He’s a nice value tonight as his role should continue to be increased with Kyle Anderson out for the Grizz.
Gerald Green (4700)
Eric Gordon could return for the Rockets, but even with Gordon back, Houston desperately needs players for Harden to pass the ball to who can make shots. Green had a great game last time out and with Danuel House on his way back to the G league, the path is clear for Green as an elite value play tonight.
Kyle Korver (4000)
Korver is getting a lot of run for the depleted Jazz right now and played 32 minutes on Monday against Detroit. He’s scored 16 and 19 actual points in his last two games and I think he’s a solid play tonight at only 4k.
FanDuel NBA Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Overview
I usually like punting one or two spots on FanDuel with this year’s new “drop score” rule. Playing a lineup of all 5-7k players just makes zero sense to me and you’ll find that the guys winning consistently on FanDuel are going “stars and scrubs” pretty frequently.
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Tonight feels like a night for Stars and Scrubs with all of the high-priced superstars on this slate. I really can’t get behind any balanced builds tonight and I’m likely going to have two 10k+ players likely in everyone lineup.
Today’s sample lineup is a CASH lineup. You’ll see my cash core plays in there mixed in with some of my value plays to make everything fit.
Remember, the sample lineup is for illustrative purposes and is not necessarily a “plug-and-play” lineup. There’s still a lot of injury information we need before 7:00 tonight when lineups lock.
PG: Steph Curry (10000)
PG: Derrick White (6100)
SG: Alec Burks (5500)
SG: James Harden (14000)
SF: Gerald Green (4700)
SF: Evan Turner (4500)
PF: Khem Birch (3800)
PF: Pascal Siakam (6500)
C: Kevon Looney (4800)
I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.
And keep coming back to FantasyCPR for the best free content in the industry! Good luck in your contests!