Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades, Wednesday January 16

ATLANTA, GA – DECEMBER 03: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors reacts after being charged with a foul against the Atlanta Hawks at State Farm Arena on December 3, 2018 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) Fantasy Basketball Top Plays /

Welcome into the Wednesday edition of Fantasy Basketball Top Plays and Fades! We get an eight game slate tonight featuring James Harden and Anthony Davis again!

We’ve finally hit the point on DraftKings where James Harden has crossed into the $13,000 territory….and I still might just lock him up, take my 70 fantasy points and be happy with my Fantasy Basketball Top Plays. Yes, Eric Gordon is questionable but even if Gordon suits up, I still think the price is fair for Harden. In the 203 minute sample size that we have this year, Harden is averaging a 52.4 percent usage and 2.14 DK FPPM with Clint Capela off the floor. That trend doesn’t make me want to fade Harden at all in cash games, but perhaps I give it some weight in GPP settings. Even then, understand a 90 point game is well within reach. Let’s get to work!

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Point Guard

Top Play – Steph Curry, Warriors

With the knowledge that Harden is still going to be the number one target in cash, GPP offers some interesting alternatives for high-priced spends. One of these players is Curry in one of the best spots for a point guard across the NBA.

I will admit that I’m not exactly thrilled that Curry finds himself in a bad to back situation, but the Pelicans are such a bad defensive team that factor gets outweighed for me. On the season, they are going up the third most DK points, second most real points and the most made three’s in the league. The pace for this game should be sky-high and Curry should excel here. Oh, he also won’t be the only Warrior in this article.

Honorable Mention – Derrick White, Spurs

Fade – Kyrie Irving, Celtics

I feel like any time I’ve said this, it winds up biting me but if I’m in that range of salary, I would want to see what I could do to my lineup to get to Curry in a much better matchup. The Celtics welcome their point guard back after a one game absence but this isn’t the easiest spot. The Raptors rank eighth against point guards and some of that is due to Kyle Lowry. He’s carrying a 11.1 net rating on the season, which is his career best by a significant margin.

Regardless of how you feel about Lowry, the Raptors have allowed the fourth fewest rebounds and are middle of the road in assists and points. It seems like a hard road for Irving tonight, especially since the Celtics and Raptors are both top 10 in points allowed.

Honorable Mention – Eric Bledsoe, Bucks

DALLAS, TX – SEPTEMBER 21: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks poses for a portrait during the Dallas Mavericks Media Day held at American Airlines Center on September 21, 2018 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Shooting Guard

Top Play – Luka Doncic, Mavericks

I feel like the shooting guard position has been a lot of the same lately. When Harden is on the slate right now, you play him because of the usage and FPPM. Donovan Mitchell is on this slate as well, who is a totally different player in the absence of Ricky Rubio. Those are both great plays but my favorite is Doncic one again. I might be a little biased because he’s just so good, but it doesn’t hurt that he’s the cheapest of the three either.

The matchup might not be ideal, but Doncic has been a totally different player this past month. He’s averaging a 34.0 percent usage and 1.40 FPPM in that time span, which would make his price still too low. I will grant you that some of that is skewed a little bit by Dennis Smith being in and out of the lineup. Even if Smith is back in there tonight, I wouldn’t have any concerns about Doncic. The Mavericks offense runs through him now and he should be more expensive.

Honorable Mention – D’Angelo Russell if Shabazz Napier is out again

Fade – Khris Middleton, Bucks

It’s one thing to play someone who is basically capped before the game even tips off. That’s the case with Middleton since he plays alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is one of the best fantasy players in the league. It’s a rare thing to see Middleton go anywhere between 30-40 fantasy points and now he has to travel to Memphis on a back to back situation.

The Grizzlies are tough on every position to start with and they have the ability to drag this game down. They sit at the bottom of the NBA in pace and when a team is at home, I tend to think they will win out as far as the pace goes. Middleton technically plays some small forward and the Grizzlies are basically the number one defense against that position. The sharpshooter for the Bucks also gets a defense that guards the three pointer well, fourth in the league. There’s too many factors on paper that work against Middleton tonight for me.

Honorable Mention – Jordan Clarkson, Cavs

OAKLAND, CA – NOVEMBER 26: Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors points to the sky before their game against the Orlando Magic at ORACLE Arena on November 26, 2018 in Oakland, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Small Forward

Top Play – Kevin Durant, Warriors

I mentioned earlier that Curry would not be the only Warrior in here and I wasn’t lying. If you elect to fade Harden and Davis, I think it’s going to have to be to stack up this game. The early point total is 18 points higher than any other game right now and they also just got finished hanging 51(!!) first quarter points on the Nuggets. They should be plenty motivated for this one too and the fantasy points should be pretty easy to come by. One way to attack the Pelicans for a while has been with wing players. That’s why we liked Danilo Gallinari the other night(who paid off nicely) and that’s a big part of the reason we love Durant tonight.

The Pelicans are surrendering the eighth most DK points to small forwards and they just don’t have anyone to contain Durant. I can’t imagine how they answer him and he’s actually cheaper than Curry on DK. It almost feels like Durant is somehow having a fairly quiet season, and yet he’s scoring more than the last two seasons, rebounding better and has a career high in assists per game. He realistically should be over $10,000 on DK and I’ll have a lot of GPP interest in him tonight.

Honorable Mention – Gerald Green, Rockets – Danuel House went down to the G League so I feel a little more comfortable playing Green

Fade – Kawhi Leonard, Raptors

As you can tell, I’m not incredibly excited for this game. I would suspect the point total will be in the 210-220 range and that’s still not going to be close to the Pelicans game. A lot of this comes down to the pricing. On FD, Kawhi is only $600 cheaper than KD and on DK, they’re $200 apart. The matchup is also far more difficult on paper for Leonard. It is true that Leonard is also having one of, if not the best season in his career and the price isn’t unfair. I still have a hard time playing him ahead of Durant, because that’s the kind of choice you have to make.

Boston has contained small forwards this season, although it hasn’t bother Leonard so far in two meetings. He’s scored an average of 31 real points over both and if he did that again tonight, the fade likely doesn’t look that smart. I’m still betting that end of it doesn’t repeat for a third time and even though Kawhi has dominated in two of the past three, Durant is still the better play in my mind.

Honorable Mention – Danilo Gallinari, Clippers

HOUSTON, TX – APRIL 29: PJ Tucker #4 of the Houston Rockets celebratres after a three point shot in the first half during Game One of the Western Conference Semifinals of the 2018 NBA Playoffs against the Utah Jazz at Toyota Center on April 29, 2018 in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Power Forward

Top Play – PJ Tucker, Rockets

We need to get a player that can give you a little savings and I think we found it with Tucker tonight. Is he efficient? Not even a little, as his usage and FPPM are very low. However, he just never leaves the court and against the Brooklyn Nets, he has the outside shot at a double double. That’s not likely, but the Rockets are so short on bodies right now he might not have a choice but to play 40 or more minutes tonight.

I mentioned Danuel House is back in the G League. Eric Gordon might not play, and even if he does it seems like he could be on some type of minutes limit. Clint Capela is down for a month. Chris Paul is still without a timetable. If you haven’t gotten the idea yet, Houston is short-handed in a major way. Against a team like Brooklyn, Tucker can rack up all sorts of stats and he’s a great salary saver tonight. Take this with a very large grain of salt because it’s such a tiny sample size, but Tucker has a 1.35 FPPM in just 20 minutes without CP3 and Capela on the floor. Even at around half of that, 38-40 minutes equals out to about 30 fantasy points.

Honorable Mention – Anthony Davis, Pelicans

Fade – Jayson Tatum, Celtics

Do yourself a favor here and don’t chase one big game. It goes beyond Kyrie Irving being back in the lineup, limiting the ceiling of everyone else for fantasy. It goes beyond the fact that the Raptors don’t represent a solid matchup. Tatum is coming off a career first, since he finally scored 30 real points in a game. Since that’s the first time it’s ever happened, it doesn’t make much sense to chase it and I won’t be.

Tatum was one of the only Celtics that paid off this past game and he wasn’t even one of the chalky ones. However, the Nets aren’t waiting on the other side tonight. The Raptors only give up under 21 points a night to the power forward position and with Kyrie on the floor, Tatum was only averaging 0.97 FPPM. The price didn’t see a massive jump but there’s still very little reason to believe you’ll get anything close to a repeat tonight.

Honorable Mention – LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs

OKLAHOMA CITY, OK – APRIL 25:Rudy Gobert #27 of the Utah Jazz passes the ball as Carmelo Anthony #7 of the Oklahoma City Thunder applies pressure during the second half of game 5 of the Western Conference playoffs at the Chesapeake Energy Arena on April 25, 2018 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.(Photo by J Pat Carter/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Top Plays – Center

Top Play – Rudy Gobert, Jazz on DK only

So, this might be a first in this article where there’s enough of a difference in price that I may actually split the play. On DK, I love Gobert. It’s still a little weird seeing him at $8,500, but he’s been on fire and should continue it tonight. The Clippers play at a faster pace, which affords him more opportunities. He’s fourth and second in paint touches and points while the Clippers allow the second most paint points and sixth most pain rebounds. It’s a total smash spot for someone who patrols the paint like Gobert does. However, I’m not convinced I can pay for him on FD.

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On FD, I think Nikola Vucevic is a better play. The $700 could be a big difference in lineup construction and the Pistons give up the ninth most real points to centers. Andre Drummond is not a scary defender and I think he might have some trouble getting out to the three-point line with Vucevic. The total in this game is pretty gross, but if there’s one play I feel comfortable with is the big man for Orlando.

Honorable Mention – Jarrett Allen, Nets for GPP only since Clint Capela is out for the Rockets

Fade – DeAndre Jordan, Mavericks

Whenever Jordan is on the slate, we would do well to remember he’s a very limited player. We want to target him in spots that he can rebound and slam it home, scoring a double double. In a matchup with the Spurs, I don’t think that outcome is super likely and there are better options on both sides of the pricing spectrum.

The Spurs are giving up the fourth fewest DK points, 11th fewest rebounds and second fewest points to centers. They’re a tough matchup across the board and even if Jordan can find his way to a nice rebounding total, he could have a tougher time getting the points he needs. He’s over $6,500 on both sites, in a bad matchup on paper and a slow game with a lower total. I’m not going there tonight.

Honorable Mention – Tristan Thompson, Cavs

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