Fantasy Basketball: NBA Draftkings Top Salary Value Plays 1/16/19
By Shaun Evans
Welcome back to another edition of “Top Salary Value Plays” on Hump Day! Yesterday we had another 6 game NBA Draftkings slate on back to back nights where we had about 20 different narratives to play off. Jimmy Butler had his revenge game versus the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dennis Schroeder had his “revenge” game versus Atlanta. But Joel Embiid and the rest of the 76ers made their presence known. Tonight we get a 8 game slate so there’s value to dig through and one important one is James Harden, once again. Good luck and cash out!
NBA Draftkings – The Breakdown
So as usually, with any NBA Draftkings slate, we’re going to look at a players stats, usage rate, previous game stats, the opposing teams defensive stats versus the players position, and their salary. A big part of daily fantasy sports is a players salary. We build our lineups around key players and if they are players like Lebron James, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, or Giannis Antetokounmpo, then they come along with a hefty price tag. We need a player to hit at least five times their value with their salary to make it “worth it” in a sense but what we really want and need is for it to be around six or possibly even seven times their value.
For example, the other night Russell Westbrook was priced at $10,900 versus the New Orleans Pelicans so we needed him to hit 54.50 fantasy points to return five times his value. Sadly, he did not. This is why we’re switching up the article format and trying to dig even deeper with our NBA Slates.
Now we might not always have multiple players (minimum two) discussed at every position on every article because the NBA has the weirdest schedule this season.
Lets not waste any more time and kick off the research for this 8 game NBA Draftkings Slate. As always though, I will be sticking with Draftkings as I rarely play on Fanduel anymore. Good luck and lets cash out!
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Steph Curry vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $10,100 – Needs to score 50.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value (65.65 for 6.5x)
We have a pretty deep point guard depth tonight but the one who has the best opportunity to return value is Steph Curry. Curry gets to face the New Orleans Pelicans who are allowing point guards to average 23 points, 9 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. Curry on the other hand is averaging 29 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assist with a usage rate of 31%. He is currently averaging 1.4 fantasy points, projecting him around 47.6 fantasy points.
In 27 games against the Pelicans, Curry is averaging 25 points, 7 assist, and 4 rebounds. Steph Curry’s shot was falling in their first match-up, shooting 60% and he recorded 37 points and 9 assist. In his past five games though, Curry returned value four times, scoring 47.8, 57.3, 48.3, 46.8, and 74.5 fantasy points. If he shoots like anything in the first game, Steph Curry will easily return value tonight.
Other Top Tier Options
Damian Lillard vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Salary: $9,000 – Needs to score 45 fantasy points or more to exceed value
The next top option at the point guard position is Damian Lillard who gets to face the struggling Cleveland Cavaliers. Damian Lillard has a usage rate of 30%, averaging 26 points, 6 assist, and 4 rebounds per game. The Cavaliers guard the point guard position pretty poorly, allowing them to average 24 points, 9 assist, and 8 rebounds. Averaging 1.2 fantasy points a minute, Lillard has yet to face off with this Cavaliers team but in 11 games in his career, Lillard averages 25 points, 7 assist, and 4 rebounds versus them. If you want to save some salary, Damian Lillard is the next in line.
Low Tier Options
Derrick White vs. Dallas Mavericks
Salary: $5,800 – Needs to score 29 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Derrick White is a salary relief guy that usually comes through majority of the time. White is averaging 8 points, 3 assist, and 3 rebounds per game this season. Derrick White has a usage rate of 16% and is just averaging 24 minutes per game. He has exceeded his value four times in his past five games, averaging 25.8, 16.5, 46.8, 27.3, and 36.5 fantasy points. He gets to face the Dallas Mavericks who are allowing point guards to average 22 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game. When looking for some salary relief, Derrick White is your guy.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
James Harden vs. Brooklyn Nets
Salary: $13,000! – Needs to score 65 fantasy points or more to exceed value (84.5 for 6.5x)
$13,000 salary! This is getting out of hand but it’s still very hard to fade James Harden! He is coming off of two huge games of 75.3 and 77.8 fantasy points, now he gets to face the Brooklyn Nets. Harden is averaging 61.6 fantasy points per game and 1.6 fantasy points per minute. But Adam made a great known stat know that without Chris Paul and Clint Capela, James Harden has a usage rate of 52% and is averaging 2.14 fantasy points per minute. Even at this $13,000 price tag, it’s hard to fade James Harden.
Averaging 35 points, 8 assist, and 6 rebounds per game this season, Harden is climbing the stat board. This Brooklyn Nets team is allowing shooting guards to average 21 points, 5 rebounds, and 4 assist but once again any defensive stat-line we see versus James Harden, we have to throw out. The two teams have yet to meet this season but without Chris Paul and Clint Capela, expect James Harden gto exceed his 65 fantasy point value easily.
Other Top Tier Options
Luka Doncic vs. San Antonio Spurs
Salary: $8,400 – Needs to score 42 fantasy points or more to exceed value
We have a few young rookies that are exciting this season and Luka Doncic is up once again versus a San Antonio Spurs team that he has already dominated once. Averaging 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assist per game with a usage rate of 28%, Doncic has been on point in his past week. He is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute, and should easily exceed value tonight. This San Antonio Spurs team is allowing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. In his previous five games, he has returned value in four of them, scoring 35.8, 44.5, 49.8, 63, and 43 fantasy points. In their first match-up, Doncic recorded 31 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist. We should see a similar performance as the Spurs are a team that hit and miss this season.
Low Tier Options
Klay Thompson vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Salary: $6,500 – Needs to score 32.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Sticking with the highest point total on the slate, Klay Thompson is in line for a good game with a very low price tag. Thompson is averaging 22 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 assist on the season while averaging around 35 minutes per game. Averaging .97 fantasy points per minute, Thompson is projected to score around 34 fantasy points tonight. The New Orleans Pelicans are allowing shooting guards to average 22 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assist per game. When it comes to value, Klay is pretty good at it with returning value in four of his past five games, scoring 33, 56.5, 41.5, 23.5, and 44.3 fantasy points. Stacking this Golden State Warriors and New Orleans Pelicans is looking real promising.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Salary: $11,000 – Needs to score 55 fantasy points or more to exceed value (71.5 for 6.5x)
The top team in the East gets to face the Memphis Grizzlies making the Greek Freak, Giannis Antetokounmpo a top play. He’s averaging 26 points, 12 rebounds, and 6 assist with a usage rate of 31% this season. The Grizzlies are allowing small forwards to average 21 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assist per game. The two have faced off earlier this season where Giannis recorded 31 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assist. The Greek Freak does have a very high ceiling to reach tonight but if he repeats his earlier performance then we should have no worry.
In the past five games, Giannis Antetokounmpo has returned value in just two of those games, scoring 62.8 and 73.5 fantasy points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 1.7 fantasy points per minute, projecting him to score 56.1 fantasy points. But with this match-up and the previous numbers that he put up against Memphis, we should see him exceed that value easily.
Other Top Tier Options
Aaron Gordon vs. Detroit Pistons
Salary: $7,000 – Needs to score 35 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Aaron Gordon came into the season late due to an injury but is surely coming back to his usual form with this struggling Orlando Magic team. Gordon is currently averaging 16 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assist per game with a usage rate of 21%. He is averaging 33.5 fantasy points per game and 1 fantasy point per minute. The Detroit Pistons are allowing small forwards to average 18 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 assist per game. In their first match-up this season, Gordon recorded a double double with 22 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assist with his shot falling 53% of the time. If we get anything near a double double from Aaron Gordon, we will be able to get him to return value easily.
Low Tier Options
Harrison Barnes vs. San Antonio Spurs
Salary: $5,700 – Needs to score 28.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Harrison Barnes may be coming off a shot that didn’t send a dagger back to the Golden State Warriors but tonight, he gets to face the oddly roller-coaster of a team, San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are currently allowing small forwards to average 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. On the offensive side of things, Barnes is averaging 18 points, 4 assist, and a sad one assist per game. While he stats aren’t bad, he has only returned value in one of his last five games, scoring just 30.5 fantasy points. Barnes has faced the Spurs 24 times in his career, averaging 11 points, 4 rebounds, and 1 assist but this is their first time facing off this season. We can get the hot handed Barnes tonight or we get the one who doesn’t hit value but he is a salary relief option tonight.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Anthony Davis vs. Golden State Warriors
Salary: $11,800 – Needs to score 59 fantasy points or more to exceed value ( 76.7 for 6.5x)
Once again we’re sticking with the highest point total of the night with 240 points between the New Orleans Pelicans and Golden State Warriors. Anthony Davis is next in line, averaging 29 points, 13 rebounds, and 4 assist per game with a usage rate of 29% this season. Davis gets to face a Warriors team that doesn’t have any true big men to guard the paint, besides Kevin Durant. The Warriors are allowing power forwards to average 20 points and 10 rebounds but that could change soon with DeMarcus Cousins coming back soon. Davis is averaging 1.6 fantasy points per minute and is projected to score around 59.2 fantasy points tonight.
He has faced the Warriors 18 times in his career, averaging 25 points and 12 rebounds. In their first match-up this season, Davis recorded 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assist. Davis has returned value three times in his past five games, scoring 82, 78.3, and 67.3 fantasy points in those games. With this game being such a high total, fast paced game, Anthony Davis is in line for a great night to return and exceed value.
Other Top Tier Options
Blake Griffin vs. Orlando Magics
Salary: $9,200 – Needs to score 46 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Once again, Blake Griffin has found his way into another one of my articles with his match-up versus the Orlando Magic. Griffin is averaging 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assist with a usage rate of 29%. This Magics team is allowing power forwards to average 21 points and 10 rebounds per game. In their first match-up though, Blake Griffin was almost non-existent, recording just 15 points, 5 assist, and 2 rebounds, a rare performance from griffin. In his past five games, Griffin returned value just 3 times, scoring 70, 48, and 59.5 fantasy points. With a slightly underachieving performance versus the Utah Jazz, Blake Griffin should be able to bounce back tonight.
Low Tier Options
Jaren Jackson Jr. vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Salary: $5,600 – Needs to score 28 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Another young rookie on the slate, Jaren Jackson Jr. gets to face the top team in the East, the Milwaukee Bucks, but has a better match-up then most will see. Jackson Jr. is currently averaging 13 points, 5 rebounds, and a lonely 1 assist on the season. He is averaging close to 26 minutes per game with a usage rate of 22%. Averaging 1.9 fantasy points per minute, Jackson Jr. can easily return value tonight against a team that is allowing power forwards to average 21 points and 11 rebounds. Jaren Jackson Jr. has returned value in his past two games, scoring 32.3 and 26 fantasy points. He hasn’t been the most consistent or the biggest overachiever but in a match-up like this, it’s hard to pass up Jaren Jackson Jr. with a low salary price tag.
NBA Draftkings – Top Tier
Nikola Vucevic vs. Detroit Pistons
Salary: $8,900 – Needs to score 44.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
Nikola Vucevic gets to face the Detroit Pistons but better yet, he gets to face Andre Drummond who he averages a double double against. But on the season, Vucevic is averaging 20 points, 12 rebounds, and 4 assist with a usage rate of 27%. He gets to face a Detroit team that allows centers to average 24 points, 15 rebounds, and 3 assist per game. Vucevic is also averaging 1.5 fantasy points per minute and averaging 45.5 fantasy points per game. In his past five games, he returned value in three of those, scoring 43.8, 44.3, and 3 fantasy points.
More from FanSided
- Caesars and PointsBet Promo Codes: $1,750 Bonus For ANY World Cup or MLB Game!
- Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
- NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
- 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
- Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
The main sample plate to look at is the one of Vucevic versus Andre Drummond. In 20 games versus Drummond, Vucevic is averaging 16 points, 11 rebounds, and 3 assist. With just 23 games as the sample plate versus the Detroit Pistons, Vucevic is averaging 15 points and 10 rebounds. Even with the great numbers in backing of Nikola Vucevic, you can also play Andre Drummond and be just as in luck for return value with him.
Other Top Tier Options
Rudy Gobert vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Salary: $8,500 – Needs to score 42.5 fantasy points or more to exceed value
The Los Angeles Clippers have a mess when it comes to the center position which makes Rudy Gobert a great play tonight. He is currently averaging 15 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 assist with a usage rate of just 17%. Gobert is averaging 40 fantasy points per game while averaging 1.3 fantasy points per minute. The Clippers are currently allowing centers to average 26 points and 17 rebounds per game. Rudy Gobert has been on a roll lately, returning value in five straight games, scoring 43.8, 37.5, 46, 52, and 58.8 fantasy points. If you don’t look to play Nikola Vucevic or Andre Drummond, Gobert is a great go to and could possibly be low owned on this slate.
Low Tier Options
Tristan Thompson vs. Portland Trailblazers
Salary: $6,200 – Needs to score 31 fantasy points or more to exceed value
The Cleveland Cavaliers are such a blender of a team and have no one to go to but Tristan Thompson is always a go to guy when looking at Cavaliers players, he may be the only one actually. He is currently averaging 12 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 assist per game, having a career season and that’s without Lebron James! The Trailblazers are currently allowing centers to average 21 points and 14 rebounds per game. With a usage rate of 17%, Thompson is averaging 1 fantasy point per minute which would project him to possible break even tonight and easily return value. The only downside is that he has only returned value three times in his past five games, scoring 39, 42.8, and 33.8 fantasy points. Being the cheaper option, Tristan Thompson could have a good game and return the value for you.
dark. Next. NBA DFS - Top Plays and Fades - January 16
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news and analysis each and every day!