Disclaimer: I hate betting favorites and love finding value in the underdogs for my NCAA basketball picks. This recurring series is going to be dedicated to finding those diamond in the rough NCAA basketball picks (money lines mostly) that pay a nice return but come with heavy risk. I mean, who wants to bet on the favorite anyways?
Last night was a tough night on underdogs across the board as the favorites won an overwhelming majority of games on the slate (as per usual). While tonight shapes up to be another tough night for dogs across the board, there are a few options that stand out as offering a great chance (and payout) for the upset.
NCAA Basketball Picks – Wednesday January, 16th
Temple Owls @ Eastern Carolina Pirates
Temple takes to the road to face fellow American Athletic Conference member ECU. The Owls sit near the top of conference play while the 8-8 Pirates have struggled to find success away from their home court.
For a team that sits 13-3, Temple offers only a meager 5 point average score margin, good for only 104th in the nation. More simply, they don’t do a good job at putting teams away and thus far have struggled to put teams away late. The Owls do a good job of traveling as they own one of the better road records in the NCAA. Led by the offensive outbursts of Shizz Alston Jr, Temple is a tough team to beat regardless of where they play.
Meanwhile, Eastern Carolina has run into some troubles as of late, dropping consecutive games to UCF and Memphis (very respectable squads). Despite their overall struggles, they still are one of the best home court teams in the nation with a strong 8-2 record at Williams Arena. Moreover, ECU is built on the backbone of a strong defense. Especially at home, ECU is known to clamp down on opposing teams. Winning by an average of 10 points per game on their home court, the Pirates simply play a different brand of basketball when competing in Greenville.
While Temple is undoubtedly the better basketball team talent-wise, ECU plays at a different level in front of their home crowd. The fact that Temple plays at such a high level of basketball on the road makes this pick a little concerning, but expect ECU to be able to hang around Temple the entire game. Temple struggles to pull away and in front of the rowdy ECU crowd, that’s going to be a problem late as the Pirates should get a boost from playing at their home court.
Pick: Eastern Carolina Pirates (+310)
George Washington Colonials @ La Salle Explorers – 8pm ET
George Washington and La Salle meet up in a matchup of two Atlantic 10 bottom feeders. Sitting at 5-11 and 3-13 respectively, neither team has found their footing on the year so far.
George Washington is coming off a brutal second half against Richmond that saw their shot entirely evaporate down the stretch. However, despite their struggles they still have a quality win in Saint Joe’s under their belt and play some decent defense. The Colonials struggle mightily on the offensive end, but if we know one thing in the NCAA it is that defense travels.
For all of George Washington’s struggles, the Explorers have had even a tougher go of things to start their season. Despite stringing together 3 straight wins, they have yet to beat a quality opponent. Their best win to date remains a 7-9 UMass team and most games they don’t find themselves very close in.
Frankly, neither of these teams are very good. Based on the eye test, George Washington looks to be a bit stronger and given the fact they’re getting +240 odds, that seems like a steal. La Salle has looked horrendous on the year and GW’s road record is almost better than La Salle’s home record of 2-6. After tonight, look for that to become a reality as La Salle has no business competing against most other teams in the Atlantic 10. They may have gotten lucky and snuck one out against UMass, but that trend shouldn’t continue moving forward. Considering how bad La Salle has been, this is one of the most comfortable underdog NCAA basketball picks I’ve made in some time.
Pick: George Washington Colonials (+240)
Dayton Flyers @ VCU Rams – 8pm ET
In another Atlantic 10 showdown, we get the 11-5 Dayton Flyers taking to the road to face down the Virginia Commonwealth Rams who have posted the same record to date.
The Flyers are coming off a run of 6 straight wins and have found their rhythm entering conference play. A perfect 3-0 so far in the A-10, Dayton is showing that their record after a tough out of conference schedule to start the year isn’t indicative of this team’s overall capability. Led by the duo of Josh Cunningham and Jalen Crutcher, the Flyers love to share the ball on offense. With 5 players averaging double-digit points, the Flyers are a versatile bunch that works with whatever the defense gives them on any given night to find a way to win.
VCU has had a solid season in their own right so far. With an identical 11-5 record, the Rams sit just behind the Flyers in conference play as they are 2-1 in the A-10 so far. The biggest question mark when it comes to VCU is their offense. Defensively, the Rams are solid and consistently hold teams to somewhere around the 60 point mark. Offensively however, they are all over the map. With the ability to come out and drop a 50 point performance just as easily as they can put up a 70-spot, you truly don’t know which version of the Rams you’re going to get on any given night.
Despite the Rams being a dangerous team at their peak, the fact remains that Dayton should be able to beat just about any team in the Atlantic-10. St. Louis and Davidson are strong and could provide a bit of resistance, but if the Flyers want to work their way back to the dance, they’ll need to pick up road wins like this at VCU. Look for the resurgent Flyers to hold VCU to a dismal offensive performance en route to a quality win on the road.
Pick: Dayton Flyers (+155)
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