NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks: January 17th, 2019
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks articles!
Welcome back to today’s Thursday edition of NBA Daily Fantasy stacks. For those of you who haven’t read my pieces before, I stray away from the typical top play articles and focus more on game environments that are worth loading up on to construct your roster.
As I’ve mentioned in my previous stacking articles, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on and I will recommend what I view to be the best way to stack the teams on the slate.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
As a reminder, the format will walk you through my top game stack, a secondary game stack, a GPP stack for leverage and the top value stack. Let’s get to it!
Primary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Lakers Team Ranks:
Pace: T3rd
Offensive Efficiency: 21st
Defensive Efficiency: T7th
This Lakers’ team clearly is not the same without LeBron James and it is evident as they come in as the double-digit underdogs in tonight’s matchup against the Thunder. While this will be a difficult matchup, both teams rank top 3 in the NBA in pace and there should be plenty of possessions to go around.
Lonzo Ball ($7.7k FD / $6.4k DK): Finally showing some consistency, Ball has averaged 36.3 minutes per game over his last three and has taken the reigns on offense without Rondo and James. He’s averaged 13 points, 7.2 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 2 steals per game. A matchup with Russell Westbrook always presents more peripheral opportunities as well.
Kyle Kuzma ($7.5k FD / $6.9k DK): Kuz has been more scoring-reliant than I would like, but his matchup with Jerami Grant is one that I can see him exploiting. While both are athletic for their positions, Kuzma’s ability to play both inside and out should give him a leg up. Couple that with Russ and PG defending Ball and Ingram and that should free up some usage for the team leader with James out (30.7% usage rate).
Brandon Ingram ($7.3k FD / $6.3k DK): Over his last 2 games, Ingram has averaged 39 minutes, 19 points, 8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. He posted a 17-11-5 line with a steal in his last game against the Thunder (1/3/19) without James. At his lowered salary on DraftKings, he’s a high floor/ceiling combo play.
Josh Hart ($4.7k FD / $4.1k DK): Hart is a hard play to peg, as he has a 50-point ceiling but a sub-10-point floor. I do, however, expect him to reach and surpass value in this one seeing that his price is so low. He posted a 13-point, 15-rebound double double in his last game against the Thunder and even saw 38 minutes in that contest. Should he see the same amount of playing time, he’s a no brainer.
Primary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder Team Ranks
Pace: T3rd
Offensive Efficiency: 19th
Defensive Efficiency: T1st
The Thunder are by far and away my favorite individual team-stack of the day. I have 5 players listed below that I view as cash-game viable, it’s just a matter of how you want your exposure, because at least 1 piece is a must.
Russell Westbrook ($12.5k FD / $11.8k DK): Westbrook checks in as the top stud of the slate and it’s not close. He has game environment, matchup and recent form all working in his favor. He owns a 32.6% usage rate on the season and produces at an insane 1.57 FPPM clip. Even if this game blows up, he’ll be a primary reason why.
Paul George ($10.4k FD / $9.8k DK): If you don’t want to pay $12k+ for your stud tonight, I think Paul George is your next best option. Not only is he under-priced for his 30.8% usage rate, 1.37 FPPM clip and recent form, he also gets the narrative against the Lakers team that he was supposedly going to sign with. Last game against them, he posted 37 points, 4 rebounds, 4 steals and 2 assists in 34 minutes. While Russ is my top stud overall, it’s hard to argue with the value here on DraftKings.
Steven Adams ($7.8k FD / $7.2k DK): Centers against the Lakers has been a thing all season and will continue tonight. On the season, they’ve allowed the 5th most FDP per game (59.8) and 4th most DKP (58.7) per game to the position. He posted a 14-point 15-rebound double double last game and should be in line for a similar stat line tonight.
Jerami Grant ($6.2k FD / $5.5k DK): Grant is always a nice value play in a matchup like this and given his recent form, he’s a great play tonight. Over his last two games, he’s posted 16.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1.5 steals and 1.5 assists in 35.3 minutes per game. Those peripherals work wonders in a game that has a pace like this one should.
Dennis Schroder ($6.1k FD / $5.7k DK): Schroder is the player I see benefitting the most from a potential blowout. He should come in and lead the second unit but even if this game doesn’t blow out, he’ll operate as the 6th man. He played 29 minutes last game against the Lakers, posting 10 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists while only shooting 30%. If he can improve on that, he’s a sure-fire bet to crush value.
Secondary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
76ers Team Ranks:
Pace: 7th
Offensive Efficiency: 9th
Defensive Efficiency: 10th
This team needs a reality TV show. Between the on and off the court trolling of Embiid, the Hollywood girlfriends of Ben Simmons and the ego battles with Jimmy Butler, it’d be a smash hit. They come into a competitive spot tonight against a tough defense, but the tight spread should make the below players great plays.
Joel Embiid ($11.1k FD / $10.1k DK): While the Pacers are a stout interior defense, Embiid is as matchup-proof as they come. Over his last 5 games against the Pacers, he’s averaged 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.2 steals per game. Those are some numbers you’re going to want a piece of.
Ben Simmons ($10.7k FD / $9.2k DK): Aside from James Harden, Ben Simmons may be the hottest player in the NBA. Over his last 3 games, he’s averaged 21 points, 14.3 rebounds, 11 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1 steal per game. To put that into perspective, he’s $9.2k on DraftKings averaging 61.3 DKP per game. Take advantage.
Jimmy Butler ($8.1k FD / $6.8k DK): I wouldn’t recommend playing Butler on FanDuel, but his depressed price on DraftKings makes him a great mid-tier option. He should go head-to-head against Victor Oladipo in an individual matchup that should net him 35-40 minutes and tons of peripheral stats. Should Simmons or Embiid get cold, Butler could then look to take over on the offensive end as well.
JJ Redick ($5.5k FD / $5.4k DK): Redick has been a reliable source of offense for Philly for the entirety of the season and should go rather over-looked tonight. Over his last 3 games, he’s averaged 19.0 points, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals. While he won’t give you a ton in the peripheral categories, his scoring output makes him a nice low-owned mid-tier play.
Secondary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Pacers Team Ranks:
Pace: 24th
Offensive Efficiency: 16th
Defensive Efficiency: T1st
While I am much higher on the Philly side of this game, it’s also hard to ignore a few of the Pacers in a game with a spread of less than 5 in a massive pace-up spot.
Victor Oladipo ($8.0k FD / $7.6k DK): This may be a season-low price for Vic, but his recent form has been forgettable to say the least. Regardless, he’s averaged 22 points, 6 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 2 steals and 1.2 blocks in 34.4 minutes per game over his last 5 games against the 76ers. At this price, it’s hard for him to bust and much easier for him to eclipse 7-8x value.
Domantas Sabonis ($7.2k FD / $7.1k DK): Minutes are always the issue for Sabonis, but his 1.32 FPPM rate gives him some security if he only sees 25-27 minutes in this game. His usage rate has risen to 24% on the season and while he’s only averaged 11 points per game vs PHI over his last 5, I expect him to be heavily involved to help keep this game close.
Darren Collison ($5.8k FD / $5.4k DK): Collison has started to find some consistency over his last 4 games, as he’s topped 33 FanDuel points in 3 of those 4 and has seen at least 26 minutes in the same 3 games. He’s also posted at least 7 assists in 3 of 4 as he takes on more of a facilitator role. His price on DraftKings hasn’t caught up to his recent production, making him an intriguing mid-tier play.
Top NBA Daily Fantasy GPP Stack: Charlotte Hornets (vs SAC)
Hornets Team Ranks:
Pace: 15th
Offensive Efficiency: 13th
Defensive Efficiency: 21st
The Hornets are rarely a team you look to stack given the fact that they really only have one massive threat on offense, but a pace up spot against the Kings in a game with a tight spread and a 230-point O/U make this a fantastic leverage spot.
Kemba Walker ($9.2k FD / $8.7k DK): Kemba owns a team-high 33.1% usage rate (more than 5% higher than second highest player) and should come into this game ready to pick De’Aaron Fox apart. He’s averaged 27.3 points per game over his last 3 and should thrive in a massive pace-up spot.
Jeremy Lamb ($5.9k FD / $5.7k DK): Lamb has been the second most consistent piece for the Hornets this season, which should tell you all you need to know about this team. Regardless, he comes into tonight in a great spot given the game script. Since returning from injury, he’s posted at least 20 FDP in all 4 games and given the fact that his last game was his first seeing 30 minutes, it’s safe to say that he’s producing just fine.
Bismack Biyombo ($4.4k FD / $4.2k DK): This is the epitome of a GPP play; erratic minutes, even more erratic production, smash spot of a matchup and the starting C is out? Sign us up! Over his last two games, he’s seen 23.4 minutes, going for 6.5 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks and an assist per game. While that doesn’t seem like much, for his salary, it’s all you need.
Top NBA Daily Fantasy Value Stack: Chicago Bulls (@ DEN)
Bulls Team Ranks:
Pace: 23rd
Offensive Efficiency: 30th
Defensive Efficiency: 23rd
Okay, please don’t turn away this far into the article. I know the Bulls are going to get blown out here, but SOME guys have to produce, right?! With Wendell Carter Jr. out for the foreseeable future, we should see value open up with Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis, the latter of whom I expect to step into a starting role. What I tried to do here was find players who could still see run in the case of a blowout.
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Jabari Parker ($4.9k FD / $3.6k DK): With Wendell Carter Jr. out, we could see an expanded role for Parker as we have over the last two games. While he’s only played 17 minutes per game, he’s averaged 26.5 FDP per game, crushing it from a per-minute standpoint. He’s averaged 14.5 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal and if he’s able to replicate that tonight, he makes for a great value play, especially on DraftKings.
Bobby Portis ($4.8k FD / $4.6k DK): Much like the Jabari play, I see the Portis play being a product of the Carter Jr. absence. With WCJ off of the floor, Portis holds an elite 31.9% usage rate and produces at a 1.22 FPPM clip. He’s too cheap across the board. If he starts, lock and load.
Chandler Hutchinson ($3.8k FD / $3.7k DK): Hutchinson is not someone I would recommend going out of your way to target, but if you NEED to save salary, he’s definitely a viable option. He’s come alive over his last 2 games, averaging 11.5 points, 6 rebounds, 1 assist and 1.5 steals per game and should see 22-25+ minutes, even in a blowout.
Next. DraftKings NBA picks January 17. dark