NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Patriots versus Chiefs

Good day and greetings from your NFL DFS best plays to win host and avid DFS player. Let’s take a look at the Arrowhead game and revisit the Saints prediction as well.

Last time in our NFL DFS best plays to win article we discussed the Rams-Saints game and the big opportunities for fantasy rosters I think this game presents.  It is my opinion, and I am not in the majority here, the Saints will win easily and in so doing demolish the Rams in fantasy.

The Saints have a smaller core group of players while the Rams spread the ball around more and therefore are more diluted for fantasy purposes.  If I am right and the Saints win easily, most if not all Rams players will significantly under-perform in fantasy and in so doing bury your dreams of winning your tournament or league.

I will say again I am not in the majority – as of this writing, 57% of all bets are on the Rams, and many qualified experts are predicting an outright Rams win.  With the Saints favored by a strong 3, normally 60% of all bets would be on the Vegas expected winner.  Not here.  The Rams are a trendy play which is a good thing for us as we roster Saints players.  At least it will give us reduced ownership.

Just to repeat our last article, I expect Goff to be another disaster as he was last week in the Rams win over the Cowboys.  He totaled 8.8 DraftKings points while Prescott earned far more.

I am going to use Brees in 60% of my lineups, Brady in 20% and Mahomes in 20%.  Goff in none.  I will most likely be the only DFS player to have this percentage equivalent – I hope for our sake, to those following me, this pans out well.

I needed to relive our last article because that is where most of our fantasy core will be – on the Saints, which we will recap on our Saturday update post as Championship day approaches.  For now, let’s turn to the cold later game in Arrowhead:

NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Game Flow

The first question to be answered to get our NFL DFS best plays going is how will the cold weather affect the passing game – or for that matter, all aspects of the game?

It must have some impact on the passing game, right?  Watching quarterbacks trying to throw in frigid weather, the ball just doesn’t act the same.  The force of the throw seems diminished and takes longer to get to the intended target.  Deep passes thrown over the top of a safety to a streaking wide receiver never seem to have pinpoint accuracy.

Obviously this is vital for our fantasy rosters – if the game is going to stay under, all position players should get a smaller percentage and we should be looking at the Saints game primarily.  If the under is straight forward than our rosters can be as well.

That said, historically cold weather games have a slightly less than 50% chance of staying under.  This seems counter-intuitive, so to understand why this occurs let’s look at it from the sportsbooks point of view.

The books want to take our money, just as we want to take theirs.  They are setting a line which they believe will achieve that objective.  Vegas builds their eye-popping sportsbooks on our money.

In the case of this game, the total opened as high as 60 before the weather forecast came out and now is sitting at 55.  If the books were really scared the under would be an easy win they would have taken the game off the board when the forecast came out and put it back up much lower.

However that did not happen.  At the huge island books and in most of Vegas, the line stayed on the board the entire time as bettors slammed the under all the way to 54.  The most recent move has been a rise up to 55.  The under is a bet only.  It’s not a lock.

As a result we should see some very good fantasy results from this game, so let’s get to it now.

NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Show Me The Value!

Sony Michel ($5600), RB New England

I was talking to my friend The Doc (not Doc Sports) and he was suggesting emphasizing the running game – makes total sense to me with New England at least.   It was the Sony Michel show last week as he racked up nearly 36 DraftKings points and this did not come out of left field.  He has had big games before but is a tournament play only as his floor is low.

James White ($5400), RB New England
Listed as a running back, he had zero carries last week and still managed nearly 25 DraftKings points.  He did that without recording a touchdown and without receiving the 100 yard bonus.  He was targeted 17 times, catching 15 (high percentage check-downs and set plays) and accumulating 97 yards.  If he catches 2 TD’s this week, your chance of winning are toast without him.

Tom Brady ($5800), QB New England
As you make up your stacks, make sure you roster Brady with James White but not with Sony Michel.  Michel rarely is even targeted and has not recorded a passing TD this season.  Especially in a short slate it is vital to have correspondence between every player in your lineup.

The passing game has more possibilities of working if the running game is succeeding and the fact that New England has diverse weapons in the backfield, they have more of a chance than the Colts had.

Indianapolis has Mack, a very good runner but someone the Chiefs defense could predict and key.  New England has 2 star RB’s, Michel the runner into the line and White the real receiver who can catch an outlet pass on either side of the field.

This will keep the Chiefs defense honest and unable to key on a certain player or area.  This should open lanes up for the next selection:

Julian Edleman ($6600), WR New England
BY far the main target for Brady.  WR Dorsett has caught a TD pass the last 2 games and in so doing exceeded his low salary based expectations, but it’s impossible to guess this will happen again.  It could be him, Hogan, Patterson or Gronkowski.

Rob Gronkowski ($4100), TE New England
He has really fallen off the fantasy map.  In the last 4 games combined he has averaged 3 DraftKings points a game, targeted a total of 11 times catching 5 with no TD’s.  Twice this season he’s posted over 27 DK points with one of those being the very first game.

I will be targeting the first 4 players listed but not stacking Brady with Michel.

Now let’s take a look at the Chiefs:

NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – The Surprising Williams

Damien Williams ($6400), RB KC Chiefs
What a boon he has been for the Chiefs as a team these last 4 weeks; he’s racked up close to 30 DraftKings points in 3 of them and catches passes as well.  He has single handily limited the upside of QB Mahomes while compiling very impressive stats across the board.
Spencer Ware, still listed as RB1 but not really, was limited in practice on Wednesday but who cares if he is declared active – the majority of the snaps will go to Williams and rightfully so.
Especially on a frigid day where the passing game may not be as sharp, I expect Williams to approach 100 yards rushing even against the Patriot 10th ranked rush defense.
He costs the least of the big 4 but has averaged more DraftKings points in the last 4 weeks than anyone else.

Patrick Mahomes ($6600), QB KC Chiefs
Mahomes along with Hill and Kelce will be mentioned, and nobody else.  This core 4 is solid for the Chiefs with the standout being Williams.  I would definitely suggest we stack Williams with Mahomes at least in some lineups.  Mahomes has targeted Williams an average of 6 times and these check-down passes will be easier to complete in the cold weather.  It’s just a matter of luck if they correspond in a TD pass.

Tyreek Hill ($7700), WR KC Chiefs
Top of the wide receiver heap with really no rival.  He’s the one capable of hitting a big point total, whereas Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and the rest will be iffy to catch 1 TD pass let alone light up the scoreboard.

Travis Kelce ($7100), TE KC Chiefs
He is of course the other star that must be played.  He has posted as high as 42.8 DraftKings points in a game and except for the season opener has scored over10 points in every one, averaging over 15.

Going outside this core 4 is a dart throw at best.  Salary savers will be needed somewhere and we will cover this in our Saturday update, but each of the Kansas City core 4 needs to be played somewhere.  In single entry tournaments where you want to select just 1 of these, I would favor Williams.  All the way up until week 11 Mahomes would have been the clear choice, but Damien has taken enough points away for himself to warrant being the top choice now.

NFL DFS Best Plays To Win – Defensive Focus Points

As sports fans, how can we not get pumped up about Championship weekend?  All season we’ve watched these NFL greats and not so greats battle it out, coming down to 4 teams remaining.  No more Saturday football – no more anything save the super bowl until next September.

So let’s try to come out of this weekend a winner, and feel good all summer waiting for this great sport to come around again.  Here are my defensive predictions on the 2 game slate:

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Best Team Defense – Saints ($2700)
This is the most expensive defense, but not by much.  This Saints DST has improved by leaps and bounds and is especially good at home.  I think the Rams and especially Goff will have a very difficult time here, as I expect the Rams to fall behind and as panic sets in, they will be throwing a lot needing to force the issue.
I am hoping we get some sacks, turnovers and if lucky enough a defensive score.

Next Best Team Defense – New England ($2100)
The Patriots are the cheapest defense on the slate.  While I do expect the Chiefs to score, maybe even a lot, Mahomes has been more aggressive throwing the football and could be intercepted if the ball bounces wrong off a receivers hands in the expected frigid weather.  If New England bags a turnover touchdown that will be enough to cover KC scoring multiple times.

Worst (lowest points) Team defense – Rams
I expect New Orleans to control this game, feed Kamara a lot after they get ahead, and secure the football as much as possible.  Many experts are predicting the Rams to win outright and if this happens my lineups will fail, but I see the Saints winning rather easily in the end.  Sunday will write the final story.

Most Recent Injury Updates:

Eric Berry, KC Chiefs Safety
Berry is considered one of the best safeties in the game and he looks good to go.  Whoever he guards will have a tough time getting catches and yards, although it is expected he will especially hurt points for Gronkowski.

Todd Gurley ($7500), RB LA Rams
Gurley looks good to go as well.  All the latest news will be listed in the Saturday update.

Good Luck To Us!