NFL FanDuel: Conference Championship Weekend – Sunday Million Special

Playoff football continues! Welcome to the Conference Championship Playoff Weekend edition of NFL FanDuel Targets from FantasyCPR. This article will focus on the two-game, Sunday Only slate on FanDuel.

Only four teams left, and FanDuel is offering one last two game slate for the NFL season. This article will cover NFL FanDuel for Sunday’s GPP action. The biggest GPP of the weekend is once again the Sunday Million, which has a one million dollar guaranteed prize pool, and pays $250,000 to the first place finisher.

With just the Conference Championships left to play before the Super Bowl, this will be the last NFL FanDuel article for me for the season. Thanks to all the readers and those that have shared them as well! I appreciate you all! Before we get to the targets, let’s once again go game-by-game, and give one last set of predictions for the season.

NFL FanDuel – NFC Championship:

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5) – (57)

When these teams met back in early November, it already had the feel that it may be a preview of the NFC Championship, and here we are. The then 7-1 Saints hosted the then 8-1 Rams at the Superdome, and went on to win 45-35 on the shoulders Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. Brees was dominant as he was most of the season, throwing for 345 yards and four touchdowns. He found Thomas 12 times, for 211 of those yards.

The Rams got their offense through the air as well, as Brandin Cooks led the way with 114 yards and a touchdown. While Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson ran through the Cowboys last week, they have a much more difficult task ahead. The Saints defense has not allowed a 100-yard-rusher since last season, and Gurley posted just 68 in the first meeting. PICK: Saints 31 – Rams 24

NFL FanDuel – AFC Championship:

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3) – (58)

I hope you were smart enough to be in the minority that didn’t panic when they saw the “arctic blast” news forecasted six days out from kickoff. Most of the time, a weather prediction that far out is ignored, but in this case it pushed this game total down to 57 in most places by Wednesday.

As of now it is Thursday, the “arctic blast” is no longer a threat, and the game total is back up to 58.5. It will be cold for sure at sub-30 degree temps at game time, but it should be nowhere near the five degrees that was forecasted a couple days ago. This is plenty warm for football. Weather will not be an issue here in my opinion.

Much like the NFC Championship, we have the benefit of being able to breakdown an earlier meeting between these teams this season. That game was a shoot-out as well, in which Steve Gostkowski kicked a game-winning field goal with no time remaining to win 43-40.

That game was in New England, and it was pretty much back and forth the whole way. Tyreek Hill got loose in that game, finding the end zone three times, and he is sure to be a popular play this week. I think Patrick Mahomes and company get it done in this one at home in the rematch, but I do think the cold will curb the scoring just a hair. In an effort to be a little contrarian, I like stacking up Saints this week, and only focusing on a handful of plays in this game. PICK:  Chiefs 30 – Patriots 28

NFL FanDuel: Sunday Million Special

QB – Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints – $8,800

It will be interesting to see how ownership ends up, but my gut is telling me the weather scare has more people switching from Mahomes to Brees. Well I was favoring Brees slightly more anyways so no change here. As long as the Saints are at home, Brees is in play. Although both he and Mahomes crushed in first meetings against their opponents last time, I am giving Brees the edge with the dome factor.

Mahomes may end up vastly under owned, and if you are playing multiple lineups, I certainly would not have 100% of either. They are relatively the same price, but because both can rack up fantasy points in any circumstances, both remain in play for me.

If I wanted to pay down a bit, I would go Jared Goff over Tom Brady. This looks like a Sony Michel game on the Patriots side of the ball as they will try to control time of possession, and there is little doubt Goff will have to throw for the Rams to beat the Saints. However, I personally do not feel comfortable with either this week, so it is Brees or Mahomes for me.

***Also Consider: Patrick Mahomes – $9,000***

NFL FanDuel: Sunday Million Special

RB – Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints – $8,100

I just really don’t understand this price. One thing I should make clear right off the bat here, is that if I do decide to play multiple lineups, I will be going 100% Kamara. There is no reason he shouldn’t be over $8,500 at the very least, but that is OK because it only helps me jam in an important play at another position. We will get to that when the time comes, but for now, let me tell you how great Kamara is one last time this season.

Here is a surprising stat considering he has averaged over 20 FDP per game this season. Not one time did Kamara receive 20 carries or more in a game. He racked up just 883 yards on the ground, but adeed 709 through the air, and scored 18 total touchdowns. Kamara eclipsed 30 FDP three times this season, and one of them was in the first meeting between these teams.

I already mentioned Thomas had the huge game with over 200 yards, but Kamara was equally impressive. This was one of two games in which he received 19 carries, and he turned that into 82 yards and two touchdowns. He was also active in the passing game as usual, as he added 34 yards and another touchdown.

RB – Damien Williams – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,200

Instead of trying to decide between Gurley and the resurgent CJ Anderson, I am looking at the fact that the Saints are pretty solid against the run, and fading both. Williams has just been too good to fade anyways, as he once again proved he is lead dog in this backfield.

In the divisional playoff last week against Indianapolis, this Chiefs offense leaned heavily on Williams, giving him 25 carries, and targeting him six times in the passing game. He was able to turn that into 129 yards and a touchdown on the ground, and additional 25 yards through the air. Williams has scored 21.5 FDP or more in three of the last four games, and like Kamara, will also be in 100% of my lineups.

***Also Consider or FLEX: James White $7,700 – Sony Michel $7,500***

NFL FanDuel: Sunday Million Special

WR – Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints – $8,800

I can’t quite make it work in my main lineup yet, but the fact that I may have to fade Thomas just won’t sit very well with me either. The obvious thing for me here, is that I want to play Brees and Kamara for sure, and I can save a ton of salary by looking at some of Brees’ other targets.

As awesome as Thomas is, I doubt he goes for 200+ yards again, as he should be the primary focus of this Rams defense this time around. He is easily the top play at the position, but the salary is up there without a doubt.

WR – Sammy Watkins – Kansas City Chiefs – $5,600

I think even at $8,400 this week, when you look at what Tyreek Hill has done the last two games, and couple that with his three TD performance in the first meeting with the Patriots, we should see Hill chalk, and it makes a ton of sense.

Hill had 13 targets last week, but only managed eight catches for 72 yards. He did add a 36-yard rushing touchdown however, giving him his second straight game over 20 FDP. He will be plenty popular which could bring Thomas’ ownership down, but my gut is telling me to look elsewhere in this Chiefs passing attack.

That leads me to Watkins. He returned from injury last week, and was immediately targeted eight times. We need value, and my guess is Hill will get all of the attention of Patriots shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore, and that should open some opportunity for Watkins. With three or four decent plays in this price range, I see myself paying down here possibly with all three spots, as the value is hard to come by elsewhere.

WR – Phillip Dorsett – New England Patriots – $5,500

Possibly my favorite value play of the group in the mid $5K range, Dorsett has quietly integrated himself into this offense over the last two weeks. Rob Gronkowski can barely move it seems, and Dorsett showed the ability to get open in the back of the end zone last week against the Chargers.

That gave Dorsett a touchdown in two straight games, and now he looks to be the fourth target in this offense, and possibly even the third at times. He has outperformed Chris Hogan, and is $2,000 less in salary than James White, Sony Michel, and Julian Edelman. If Brady can find him in the end zone one more time it will pay off, and I am all in on this one as well.

***Also Consider or FLEX: Robert Woods $7,100 – Josh Reynolds $5,600 – Ted Ginn Jr. $5,300***

NFL FanDuel: Sunday Million Special

TE – Travis Kelce – Kansas City Chiefs – $7,400

It’s all about the pricing for me, and when I said there was another guy I wanted to jam in, this is it. I love the fact that people punted with Gerald Everett and such last weekend, and I hope Kelce hasn’t done enough to garner attention here. We could even see some Gronk ownership this week at his low price, but if you have watched him play, you know you can’t comfortably roster him.

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In the first meeting with New England, Kelce managed just five catches on nine targets, and finished with just 61 yards. Because Hill had the huge game in that one, my hope is that Kelce is overlooked as a must play this weekend.

In my opinion, the value at the wide receiver is where you have to focus, and Kelce has such an advantage as an athlete over every other tight end, that I am locking him in and expecting a huge game. If the Pats focus on shutting down Hill and preventing another huge game, that should equal good things for Williams and Kelce, and possibly Watkins as well.

***Also Consider: Rob Gronkowski – $5,600***

DEF – New Orleans Saints – $4,600

No defense is safe this week. In fact, it is sad to think, but very possible, that whoever we roster here could be the difference between a huge payday, and a minimum cash. But it is what it is, and the fact that all four defenses will even struggle to stay in positive points, is a good sign this position should just be thrown out, especially on two-game slates like this, where it could make a world of difference.

Here is what we are working with. We know these teams played, so let’s see how each defense fared in both shoot-out’s. The Saints surrendered 35 points to the Rams in the first meeting, and only had one INT and zero sacks. There is our first negative, as the final tally was -2.

The Chiefs defense has been good the last couple weeks, and this is my one possible pivot. When they faced New England in Foxborough, they had a fumble recovery and two sacks, while allowing 43 points in that loss. That was better than the Saints -2, but not by much. The Chiefs D posted zero FDP in that one.

The Rams and Patriots shouldn’t even enter your mind as options this week in my opinion, but for those curious, the Rams put up -2 in the first meeting, and the Patriots managed zero. Not one defense scored positive points in the first match-up’s so this will be interesting to say the least. Don’t forget to check out the sample lineup on the final slide below!

***Also Consider: Kansas CIty Chiefs – $4,400***

NFL FanDuel: Sunday Million Special – Sample Lineup

The line-up below is meant to be illustrative only to further back-up the logic laid out in previous slides. It is not an optimal line-up. It is in fact, just a “Sample Lineup.” 

QB –  Drew Brees – $8,800
RB –  Alvin Kamara – $8,100
RB –  Damian Williams – $7,200
WR – Sammy Watkins – $5,600
WR – Phillip Dorsett – $5,500
WR – Ted Ginn Jr. – $5,300
TE –   Travis Kelce – $7,400
FLEX – Sony Michel – $7,500

DEF – New Orleans Saints – $4,600

I hope you enjoyed some bonus playoff coverage today. You can find me on Twitter with the link at the top of the page. Remember to check back in to FantasyCPR for all of your DFS needs! Good luck this weekend!