Dennis Smith Jr. trade wouldn’t be due to lack of improvement

It’s usually not a good sign when a lottery pick is being shopped around early in their career, but in the case of the Mavericks and Dennis Smith Jr. things are a little bit different.

Dennis Smith Jr. isn’t the type of player you usually see moved at the trade deadline. He’s a 21-year-old lottery pick on a rebuilding team who hasn’t even been in the league for two years. On paper, he and the Mavericks are a match made in heaven.

But, when you add Luka Doncic to that paper, things get more complicated.

Doncic, in many ways, stole Smith’s life, or at least the life he was supposed to be living. Smith was supposed to be the Mavericks’ point guard of the future, but now Doncic is the guy the offense runs through. Smith was supposed to be the team’s seminal scorer, but now Doncic is the one the team counts on to get buckets during crunch time.

The problems that arise for Smith here aren’t really his fault. The issue isn’t that he’s bad, the issue is that Doncic is a prolific talent that just so happens to play with a very similar style. Any trade of Smith would be made because of issues of fit, not because he doesn’t seem like he’s going to pan out, a fact that should make moving him fairly easy for the Mavericks.

Actually, Smith’s been having a pretty good season. One big area of improvement for him has been his accuracy from beyond the arc; at this point his 3-point percentage has improved by about six percentage points compared to last season, making his game much more versatile.

One particularly intriguing thing about Smith’s improved 3-point shooting this season has been his ability to create opportunities from deep off the dribble, a skill he didn’t possess last year. This season he’s shooting an impressive 42.3 percent from 3 after 3-6 dribbles compared to a 23.9 3-point percentage off the same type of shot during his rookie season. Smith thrives in general when the ball is in his hands, so developing this skill further will benefit him more than focusing on catch-and-shoot 3s.

With all this said, it’s not likely that Smith is going to become a spot up sharpshooter, and the 3 will probably never be his bread and butter. He can use the pull-up 3 as a weapon to keep the defense honest but most of Smith’s scoring comes around the rim, and he’s at his best when getting in the teeth of the defense. His shot selection this year has been pretty similar to Eric Bledsoe’s (though Bledsoe has played in more games,) and given the time he could flourish in a similar way. Bledsoe might not be the most flattering comp one could get, but he’s a solid player making contributions to a first-place team, and Smith still has years to progress beyond him.

Right now the two teams that seem to be getting the most buzz as possible destinations for Smith are the Orlando Magic and the Phoenix Suns; Smith would be a great addition to either but would be a particularly good fit for the Magic, a team flush with bigs who aren’t the smoothest ball-handlers. In Orlando Smith would be able to develop alongside rookie Mo Bamba, a relationship that would be much more symbiotic on the court than the one between him and Doncic.

The downside to trading Smith to the Magic or the Suns is that all teams involved in the trade are currently rebuilding, meaning their needs are pretty similar. Most players worth trading for on either team are young, and by moving them for Smith both would be creating new holes in an effort to fill another.

A similar issue arises if you consider trading draft picks for Smith; is he worth giving up a future lottery pick? His play this season suggests that that may be the case, but the allure of what might be behind an unopened door is hard to resist.

If Smith had been worse this season he’d be much easier to dump as part of a package of players, but his clear promise means he’ll likely be the centerpiece of any deal. This creates some logistical problems, as mentioned above, but overall is a good thing for Smith, who should be able to escape any of the stigma associated with a young player being shopped early in his career. Any trade of him would be far from a bust dump, and his exodus from the Mavericks will likely be good for all involved.